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<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>Today's Earnings warnings were enough to push
the market down to my 825-826 target range. Today's intra-day low of
825.74 is the anticipated low turn. However, the move up may be very short
lived. We have two possible scenarios.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>To understand where we go from here we need a little
review of how we got to where we are. It is my opinion that we are in the midst
of a large <span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>3-3-3<font
size=2 face="Courier New">
A-B-C correction that began from the 7-24 low. From that low the market made a
three wave move labeled on the attached chart by the first lower cased a-b-c
set. This move terminated at the 8-22 high which completed the large
"A" wave.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>We then began a three wave decline marked by the
next a-b-c set. That may have terminated today at 825.74, which I have
temporarily labeled as the "B" wave.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>Generally a fully developed C wave will be of equal
length as that of the A wave, or it will be 1.618 times the length of the A
wave. The move down from 8-22 to 9-5 is labeled as a minor "a"
wave, with the move from 9-5 up to 9-11 being a minor "b" wave. The
current minor "c" wave began from the 9-11 high. The downside
target for an equal length "c" wave would be 829.69. Today's
price action satisfies that target.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>The question that remains is this the termination
point for the minor "c" wave or will it extend down to the 1.618
level which would be 771.42. If it did then the major "B" wave
would then be approximately the same length as the major "A" wave
and set-up the classic double bottom.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>Looking closer at the price action from the 9-11
high we can clearly see three waves down, which could be a further subdivision
of this minor "c" wave into another smaller a-b-c, or it could be
sub-dividing into a five wave move down before the minor "c" wave
and major "B" waves both terminate together.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>In either case we should see at least a one to three
day bounce up from here. We will then have to let the market tell us if it is
going to continue moving higher beginning a major "C" wave, which
would take us back up to at least the 912 area, or if it is going to continue
moving down in a five wave move terminating near 771.42.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>E
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>From: "Hill,
Ernie" <<a
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/post?protectID=070212234009056091170056001064114239248237196214183130252055210";>ernie.hill@xxxx>
Date:
Thu Sep 19, 2002 9:01 pm
Subject: Forecast for
tomorrow
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>We are very near a short term low. If today's low does not
hold up then
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'> 836.50 should limit the downside tomorrow in the cash
S&P. I would expect an
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'> intra-day reversal from that level. If this level should
fail by more than a
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'> few points then 825-826 would be the next down side target.
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'> E
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>
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