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<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Sorry I forgot the chart the first time.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Monday, September 23, 2002
9:12 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Re: Market Update
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Today's Earnings warnings
were enough to push the market down to my 825-826 target range. Today's
intra-day low of 825.74 is the anticipated low turn. However, the move up may
be very short lived. We have two possible scenarios.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>To understand where we go
from here we need a little review of how we got to where we are. It is my
opinion that we are in the midst of a large 3-3-3 A-B-C correction that began
from the 7-24 low. From that low the market made a three wave move labeled on
the attached chart by the first lower cased a-b-c set. This move terminated at
the 8-22 high which completed the large "A" wave.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>We then began a three wave
decline marked by the next a-b-c set. That may have terminated today at 825.74,
which I have temporarily labeled as the "B" wave.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Generally a fully developed
C wave will be of equal length as that of the A wave, or it will be 1.618 times
the length of the A wave. The move down from 8-22 to 9-5 is labeled as a minor
"a" wave, with the move from 9-5 up to 9-11 being a minor "b"
wave. The current minor "c" wave began from the 9-11 high. The
downside target for an equal length "c" wave would be 829.69. Today's
price action satisfies that target.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>The question that remains is
this the termination point for the minor "c" wave or will it extend
down to the 1.618 level which would be 771.42. If it did then the major
"B" wave would then be approximately the same length as the major
"A" wave and set-up the classic double bottom.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>Looking closer at the price
action from the 9-11 high we can clearly see three waves down, which could be a
further subdivision of this minor "c" wave into another smaller
a-b-c, or it could be sub-dividing into a five wave move down before the minor
"c" wave and major "B" waves both terminate together.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>In either case we should see
at least a one to three day bounce up from here. We will then have to let the
market tell us if it is going to continue moving higher beginning a major
"C" wave, which would take us back up to at least the 912 area, or if
it is going to continue moving down in a five wave move terminating near
771.42.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>E
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'><a
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts";>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>
<font size=3
face="Times New Roman">
<font size=3
face="Times New Roman">
<font size=3
face="Times New Roman">
<font size=3
face="Times New Roman">From:
"Hill, Ernie" <<a
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/post?protectID=070212234009056091170056001064114239248237196214183130252055210";>ernie.hill@xxxx>
Date:
Thu Sep 19, 2002 9:01 pm
Subject: Forecast for
tomorrow
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>We are very near a short term low.
If today's low does not hold up then
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> 836.50 should limit the
downside tomorrow in the cash S&P. I would expect an
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> intra-day reversal from that
level. If this level should fail by more than a
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> few points then 825-826 would
be the next down side target.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> E
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'><a
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts";>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"'>
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Attachment:
Description: "9-23 SPX chart.gif"
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