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Earl - EXACTLY......I just read where IT Consulting SERVICES firms business
is DOWN 85% from only a year ago.......poentially translating into at least
a 50% unemployement rate for IT consultants.
I mean, when have we had in this country business statistics like that ?
I mean someone asks: "How's business ?"
and you respond: "Oh, we're doing about one-seventh the business we did last
year"
This has never happened in this growing US economy...ever.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Saturday, September 21, 2002 8:59 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
>
>
> I neglected to make one other important point relevant to the original
> comparison to Japan. Japan is, in many ways in similar shape to
> where the US
> was in the late 20's with a large manufacturing base and trade surplus. To
> my knowledge, no country in the past several hundred years has entered a
> market/economic decline with an economy based on services!
> Services tend to
> be far more discretionary than basic manufacturing and I believe that the
> potential exists for a much larger economic hit than the US
> incurred during
> the Great Depression.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 4:20 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
>
>
> > During the Great Depression, unemployment was 25%+- ... the flip side is
> > that 75%+- were employed. I do think that several critical distinctions
> are
> > missed in comparisons:
> >
> > 1) When the markets peaked in 1929, the US was a net creditor
> nation with
> > very large reserves. When the market peaked in 2000, the US was a net
> debtor
> > nation with a huge and growing trade deficit.
> >
> > 2) Even more important, when the markets peaked in the 1929,
> the US had a
> > large and vibrant manufacturing base which dominated the
> national economy.
> > When the markets peaked in 2000, the US economy was service based with
> most
> > of the manufacturing moved off-shore.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 3:06 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> >
> >
> > > What you're saying about Japan is correct. Tokyo is hustlin' and
> > > bustlin'. But I've read that even during the Great Depression,
> > > things were relatively OK in the major cities here.
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Joe Duffy" <joeduffy@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Additionally many here seem to think Japan has been in this decade
> > > long
> > > > depression. The reality as I hear it is life goes on quite well
> > > there, at
> > > > least from talking to people who work there --- and that goes for
> > > the
> > > > nationals not just the ex-pats in the banking industry I know.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 12:35 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Your use of the word 'panic' followed in another message by
> > > extensive
> > > > > use of caps leads me to believe you have an opinion. If there is
> > > > > anything I have learned from lurking on this list over the years,
> > > it is
> > > > > to not have a strong opinion, because it makes it emotionally
> > > difficult
> > > > > to trade.
> > > > >
> > > > > You also seem to place a lot of meaning on the shape of the yield
> > > curve,
> > > > > and seem to think that the US economy is heading into a situation
> > > like
> > > > > Japan. The deep decline in Japan's market can be attributed to a
> > > real
> > > > > estate bubble that greatly exaggerated the valuation of 'blue
> > > chip'
> > > > > companies in that market. It has taken a decade and more to wash
> > > that
> > > > > overvaluation out of that market, and there is still a state of
> > > denial
> > > > > in the banking sector there. The US is not in a situation
> > > anything like
> > > > > what happened in Japan. While there may still be too much
> > > optimism in
> > > > > stocks prices in the US today, I don't see any historical
> > > similarity
> > > > > except the overall level of interest rates. The size of the
> > > bubble in
> > > > > both real estate and the stock market was much greater than
> > > anything
> > > > > present so far in the US economy.
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards
> > > > > DanG
> > > > >
> > > > > "M. Simms" wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > NO WAY !!! IF SO, HELLO JA-PAN !!! HELLO "DEAD FLAT YIELD
> > > CURVE".....
> > > > > > JAPAN ECONOMY DEJA VUE....
> > > > > > and the experts are saying "IT CAN'T HAPPEN, IT CAN'T
> > > HAPPEN" !!!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Does this spell the death of capitalism ?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > From: profitok [mailto:profitok@x...]
> > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:31 PM
> > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > Cc: gannsghost@xxxx
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > we STILL have much more to go on the upside,,
> > > > > > > June 2003 contract to reach 119 by 3 2003
> > > > > > > Ben
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: "RealtradersList" <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:09 PM
> > > > > > > Subject: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Is that correct ?
> > > > > > > > In that case we could start approaching that Japan-like
> > > yield
> > > > > > > curve where
> > > > > > > > everything flattens out between a rate of zero and 2
> > > percent.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Beware of a Fed INTRADAY rate cut in case of a market
> > > panic !
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
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> > > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
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> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
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> > > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
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> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
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