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--- In realtraders@xxxx, BobsKC <bobskc@xxxx> wrote:
>
> This list is a micro section of the investment community and it is
rampant with doom and gloom.
Funny how we can see things differently. I thought the list was
bullish! I went back about five days and counted *posts* and marked
them bullish or bearish. These did not include quotes from gurus
posted here. For gurus I went to:
http://www.aegeancapital.com/freeservices/archives1/marketviews.htm
I counted 14 bulls vs 12 bears at that site (no connection).
Anyway, on RT list I counted 12 bullish vs 4 bearish posts. These
were short term opinions like "I don't think the market can go down
here" or "the market should bottom at XYZ tomorrow," rather than
longer term theory like "someday the NDX will hit 500 or 50,000."
>How many think it will do what hurts the most people?
I do, but there are various ways to do this. My take is that there
are lots of super bears and super bulls....not so many in between.
Folks are looking for a 1930's style bear or a 1990's style bull.
Moreover, there are a lot more systems type traders that have based
their systems on the relatively "clean" action of the last few years.
IMHO, a choppy, jumpy, trendless market (like the 1970's) will hurt
the most people.... well a 95% decline would hurt too ;-( ...
> I still know of no better indicator than the
> contrarian indicator. I don't offer advice on this list very often
but I wouldn't fall in love with any position or trend right now.
Exactly, I agree. Watch out after they bait that hook.
BW
The reasons for such negative feelings are both
> fundamental and technical. As we drop, the negative beliefs feed
on
> themselves and become self fulfilling which only brings about a new
set of
> technical numbers ever lower .. ever worse. How many believe that
the
> market is this easy? That the market will do just what most think
it will
> do? How many think it will do what hurts the most people? After
my 37
> years in the equity markets, I still know of no better indicator
than the
> contrarian indicator. I don't offer advice on this list very often
but I
> wouldn't fall in love with any position or trend right now.
>
> Bob
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