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<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>The
letter I referenced was not from a German central banker. It was from <font
size=2 color=red face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>Mr. Norbert Walter, the Deutsche Bank’s
chief economist<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:#003300'>.<span
class=EmailStyle24>
<font size=2 color="#003300"
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002
7:44 AM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Cc:
SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [SPX_Swing_Trading] RE:
[RT] SPX forecast Update
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>According to my TA the price action on
Thursday and Friday meet the requirements of a turning point. While from my
perspective which is purely TA no fundamental analysis involved we “should” be
going up until at least late September. However, if the market were to roll
over now or make a nominal new high tomorrow and then roll over it wouldn’t be
the first time this type of reaction to my anticipated next turn high were to
have happened.
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>While I am not expecting this type of
move, it is within the parameters of my methodology. If it does happen, it
would represent extreme weakness in the market, and would likely be triggered
by a significant news event, possibly even one the general public was not even
aware of such as Ben’s letter from the German central banker. Technically the
line in the sand 876 held. Now it has become the panic line! If it is broken
within the next few days it could get real ugly real fast.
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>E
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Bob Heisler
[mailto:BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002
7:00 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast
Update<span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana>It's
difficult to have much conviction with the 9/11 anniversary wildcard this week,
but I'll take the other side of your scenario Ernie. The rally on Friday
was entirely unimpressive and the few bulls that actually participated
looked like stumbling drunks in an ice storm. And the late failed
breakout/weak close wasn't confidence inspiring and most likely was a good
place to enter medium term shorts.<span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana>Regardless
of which way it goes I just hope we see 898-900 become support or 890-888
become resistance early on Monday.<span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Verdana>Bob<font
color=black>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>-----
Original Message ----- <span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black;font-weight:bold'>
From:<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial> <a
href="mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx"; title="ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx">Hill, Ernie
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=2
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'> <font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>To:<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <a
href="mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'" title="realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx">'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
<span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>Sent:<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> Friday, September 06,
2002 8:11 PM<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>Subject:<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial> RE:
[RT] SPX forecast Update<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<p class=MsoList style='margin-left:93.75pt;text-indent:0in;border:none;
mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:black'>Yesterday's close was firmly in the middle of my last target
range of 876-884. On Tuesday I said "while the market can move below the
876 level it must close above it for my target range of 876-884 to be
valid." The market did just that with yesterday's intra-day low of 870.55
and a closing price of 879.15.
<p class=MsoList style='margin-left:93.75pt;text-indent:0in;border:none;
mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:black'>
<p class=MsoList style='margin-left:93.75pt;text-indent:0in;border:none;
mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:black'>I believe we have finally seen the termination of the recent
down move. With today's close of 893.92 we finally have a confirmation day. My
work indicates that the dominant trend will be up from here until late
September or early October, where the bear market rally will lose steam and
roll over.
<p class=MsoList style='margin-left:93.75pt;text-indent:0in;border:none;
mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:black'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:75.75pt;text-indent:.25in;border:none;
mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font
size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:black'>E
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:75.75pt;text-indent:.25in;border:none;
mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font
size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:navy'><font size=2
face=Arial>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/<span
style='font-weight:bold'>snpforecasts<span
class=EmailStyle22><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><span
class=EmailStyle22><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:111.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=2
color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, September 03, 2002
9:22 PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast
Update<span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:111.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3
color=black face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<p style='margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman">The market
can be very humbling. What I rated as a small chance has come to pass. The 876-884
target range is the last of my projected target ranges for the termination of
the current short term down move.<span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
<p style='margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman">883.63 is the
critical .618 retracement level for the move from the 8-5 low to the 8-22 high.
876 is literally the line in the sand. My work does not show any support levels
of significant strength below 876. Should the market drop from here to below
833 before terminating this current down swing, it would cause me to have to
perform a major re-evaluation of the markets current price structure.<font
color=black>
<p style='margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman">While the
market can move below the 876 level it must close above it for my target range
of 876-884 to be valid. It has been my experience that all significant turning
points occur very near to strong support or resistance levels. This particular
turning point has made itself significant by the strength of the markets move
down to it.<span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<p style='margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman">My timing
model is screaming for a turn to be made, and we are at the last strong support
level that I see before breaking the 8-5 low of 833.44. My methodology is now staring
the market right in the face. Which will blink first?<font
color=black>
<p style='margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman">E <font
color=black>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:75.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3 color=black
face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
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