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<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:black'>Earl,
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:black'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:black'>I agree that if we do roll over here in the next two or
three trading days and break below 876 then it will likely be a quick trip down
to at least the .618 retracement from the 7-24 low near 846.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:black'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:black'>E
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><a
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts/";>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts/
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Earl Adamy
[mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Sunday, September 08, 2002
10:22 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast
Update<span style='color:navy;mso-color-alt:
windowtext'>
<font size=3 color=navy
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=navy>
<font size=2 color=black
face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
color:black'>This is certainly a very dicey period in which to trade, however
here is<span style='mso-fareast-font-family:
"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>what I see.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>Daily: I don't
put much credence in the count here, but it's instructive to<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>analyze the
information provided. Price failed to reach the important left<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>pivot high at
996 during the initial phase of its thrust ... generally a<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>sign of
weakness. Also of note is the fact that the "W.4" has deeply<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>penetrated the
W.4 blue/green/red channels ... an indication of probable<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>failure for the
"W.5". The decline from the high had a choice of two<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>possible paths,
4x1 or 2x1, and chose the steeper of the two. Also worthy of<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>note ... if I
force AGet to use long term counts, it labels the high at 966<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>as
"W.4" and shows an extremely low PTI for the projected W.5 decline.
This<span style='mso-fareast-font-family:
"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>suggests that
the 771 (W.3) low will hold for the next several weeks.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>Hourly: a decent
impulsive count down which broke under the bear channel<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>during w.3 and
has now completed a nice W.4 rally pattern. AGet projects a<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>minimum W.5 at
845+-. Also in play are two other patterns of note. The<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>bullish pattern
is a possible island reversal which would be confirmed by a<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>move higher. The
bearish pattern is the inverse cup and handle which<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>projects to 819.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>Conclusion: I
think there is a pretty high probability that the target<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>labeled
"842 12Sep" on the daily is in play. I think it likely that the<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>rally off the
771 low was W.A, that the current decline is W.B, and that we<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>will see a W.C
rally roughly equal in length to W.A which could take price<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>to 1040+-. I also
think that the bias is heavily weighted to the downside.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>Earl<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>----- Original
Message -----<span style='mso-fareast-font-family:
"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>From:
"Hill, Ernie" <ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx><span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>Cc:
<SPX_Swing_Trading@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx><span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>Sent: Sunday,
September 08, 2002 6:44 AM<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>Subject: RE:
[RT] SPX forecast Update<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> According
to my TA the price action on Thursday and Friday meet the<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>>
requirements of a turning point. While from my perspective which is purely<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> TA no
fundamental analysis involved we "should" be going up until at least<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> late
September. However, if the market were to roll over now or make a<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> nominal new
high tomorrow and then roll over it wouldn't be the first time<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> this type
of reaction to my anticipated next turn high were to have<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> happened.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> While I am not
expecting this type of move, it is within the parameters of<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> my
methodology. If it does happen, it would represent extreme weakness in<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> the market,
and would likely be triggered by a significant news event,<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> possibly
even one the general public was not even aware of such as Ben's<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> letter from
the German central banker. Technically the line in the sand<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>876<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> held. Now
it has become the panic line! If it is broken within the next<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>few<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> days it
could get real ugly real fast.<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> E<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>>
-----Original Message-----<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> From: Bob
Heisler [mailto:BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx]<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> Sent:
Sunday, September 08, 2002 7:00 AM<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> Subject:
Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> It's
difficult to have much conviction with the 9/11 anniversary wildcard<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> this week,
but I'll take the other side of your scenario Ernie. The rally<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> on Friday
was entirely unimpressive and the few bulls that actually<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>>
participated looked like stumbling drunks in an ice storm. And the late<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> failed
breakout/weak close wasn't confidence inspiring and most likely was<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>a<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> good place
to enter medium term shorts.<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> Regardless
of which way it goes I just hope we see 898-900 become support<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>or<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> 890-888
become resistance early on Monday.<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> Bob<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> -----
Original Message -----<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> From: Hill,
Ernie <mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx><span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> To:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx' <mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> Sent:
Friday, September 06, 2002 8:11 PM<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> Subject:
RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> Yesterday's
close was firmly in the middle of my last target range of<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> 876-884. On
Tuesday I said "while the market can move below the 876 level<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>it<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> must close
above it for my target range of 876-884 to be valid." The<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>market<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> did just
that with yesterday's intra-day low of 870.55 and a closing price<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> of 879.15.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> I believe
we have finally seen the termination of the recent down move.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>With<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> today's
close of 893.92 we finally have a confirmation day. My work<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> indicates
that the dominant trend will be up from here until late<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>September<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> or early October,
where the bear market rally will lose steam and roll<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>over.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> E<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> <<a
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts";>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> <a
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts";>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>>
-----Original Message-----<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> Sent:
Tuesday, September 03, 2002 9:22 PM<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> To:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> Subject:
RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>><font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> The market
can be very humbling. What I rated as a small chance has come<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>to<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> pass. The
876-884 target range is the last of my projected target ranges<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>for<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> the
termination of the current short term down move.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> 883.63 is the
critical .618 retracement level for the move from the 8-5<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>low<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> to the 8-22
high. 876 is literally the line in the sand. My work does not<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> show any
support levels of significant strength below 876. Should the<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>market<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> drop from
here to below 833 before terminating this current down swing, it<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> would cause
me to have to perform a major re-evaluation of the markets<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> current
price structure.<span style='mso-fareast-font-family:
"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> While the
market can move below the 876 level it must close above it for<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>my<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> target
range of 876-884 to be valid. It has been my experience that all<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> significant
turning points occur very near to strong support or resistance<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> levels.
This particular turning point has made itself significant by the<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> strength of
the markets move down to it.<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> My timing
model is screaming for a turn to be made, and we are at the last<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> strong
support level that I see before breaking the 8-5 low of 833.44. My<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> methodology
is now staring the market right in the face. Which will blink<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> first?<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>> E<font
color=black>
<span
style='color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
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