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The VIX spiked way up again today. It will be hard to
move down against that in the short term.
Kent
----- Original Message -----
From: <A
href="mailto:vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=vonhef@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Adam Hefner
To: <A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, September 04, 2002 12:08 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX forecast Update
I hope your right Ernie. The calculations for
monthly support that I use (791 - 856) suggest that we may not have put in the
monthly low yet. Today's move down could signify an exhaust, but that was a
strong close down..... so lets see what happens tomorrow.
Adam
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Hill,
Ernie
To: <A
href="mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'"
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Sent: Tuesday, September 03, 2002 9:25
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast
Update
Sent in rich text format,
but chart did not show up! Here is chart.<FONT color=#000000 face=Arial
size=2> <<876.gif>>
-----Original
Message-----<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>From: Hill, Ernie [<A
href="mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>Sent: Tuesday,
September 03, 2002 9:22 PM<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>To: <A
href="mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'">'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>Subject: RE: [RT]
SPX forecast Update
The market can be very humbling. What I rated as a
small chance has come to pass. The 876-884 target range is the
last of my projected target ranges for the termination of the
current short term down move.
883.63 is the critical .618 retracement level for
the move from the 8-5 low to the 8-22 high. 876 is literally the
line in the sand. My work does not show any support levels of
significant strength below 876. Should the market drop from here
to below 833 before terminating this current down swing, it would
cause me to have to perform a major re-evaluation of the markets
current price structure.
While the market can move below the 876 level it
must close above it for my target range of 876-884 to be valid. It
has been my experience that all significant turning points occur
very near to strong support or resistance levels. This particular
turning point has made itself significant by the strength of the
markets move down to it.
My timing model is screaming for a turn to be made,
and we are at the last strong support level that I see before
breaking the 8-5 low of 833.44. My methodology is now staring the
market right in the face. Which will blink first?
E
-----Original
Message-----<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>From: Hill, Ernie
[<FONT
color=#0000ff face=Tahoma
size=2>mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>]<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>Sent: Thursday, August
29, 2002 9:01 PM<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>To:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>Subject:
RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
The market played out scenario #3, and appears to
have completed the current down move. While I have a very high
degree of confidence that today was the low for move, until we see
a confirmation signal there is still a small chance that we could
go lower. For the sake of clarity the confirmation signal will be
a closing price above today's high.
E
<A
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts";><FONT
color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/<FONT
color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>snpforecasts
-----Original
Message-----<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>From: Hill,
Ernie [<A
href="mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx";><FONT color=#0000ff
face=Tahoma
size=2>mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>]<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>Sent:
Wednesday, August 28, 2002 9:41
PM<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>Subject:<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2> [RT] SPX forecast Update
Once again today could be the bottom, as we
came within a whisker of the 910-913 target range, and
both of my short term cycle indicators are suggesting that
a turn is imminent. While the next target level of 876-884
is still a possibility, at this point I would have to say
that it is not very likely that we will go that low.
The 910-913 range has emerged as the high
probability target for the termination of this short term
down move. The most likely scenario for tomorrow would be
a move slightly lower into the target range or just below
before the market terminates the move, and begins to go
higher. The second most likely scenario is that the market
will open higher and continue to move higher from there.
And the third most likely scenario would be a continuation
of the down move possibly as low as 900, with an intra-day
reversal featuring a closing price above at least 911.
Each of these scenarios involves the 910-913 target
range.
Despite the high probability that we are
about to make a turn and not likely to go much lower,
until we see the turn confirmation signal this market
could still reach the lower target range
E
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color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/<FONT
color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>snpforecasts
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