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-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, September 03, 2002 9:22 PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
The market can be very humbling. What I rated as a small chance has come to pass. The 876-884 target range is the last of my projected target ranges for the termination of the current short term down move.
883.63 is the critical .618 retracement level for the move from the 8-5 low to the 8-22 high. 876 is literally the line in the sand. My work does not show any support levels of significant strength below 876. Should the market drop from here to below 833 before terminating this current down swing, it would cause me to have to perform a major re-evaluation of the markets current price structure.
While the market can move below the 876 level it must close above it for my target range of 876-884 to be valid. It has been my experience that all significant turning points occur very near to strong support or resistance levels. This particular turning point has made itself significant by the strength of the markets move down to it.
My timing model is screaming for a turn to be made, and we are at the last strong support level that I see before breaking the 8-5 low of 833.44. My methodology is now staring the market right in the face. Which will blink first?
E
-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, August 29, 2002 9:01 PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast Update
The market played out scenario #3, and appears to have completed the current down move. While I have a very high degree of confidence that today was the low for move, until we see a confirmation signal there is still a small chance that we could go lower. For the sake of clarity the confirmation signal will be a closing price above today's high.
E
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, August 28, 2002 9:41 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] SPX forecast Update
Once again today could be the bottom, as we came within a whisker of the 910-913 target range, and both of my short term cycle indicators are suggesting that a turn is imminent. While the next target level of 876-884 is still a possibility, at this point I would have to say that it is not very likely that we will go that low.
The 910-913 range has emerged as the high probability target for the termination of this short term down move. The most likely scenario for tomorrow would be a move slightly lower into the target range or just below before the market terminates the move, and begins to go higher. The second most likely scenario is that the market will open higher and continue to move higher from there. And the third most likely scenario would be a continuation of the down move possibly as low as 900, with an intra-day reversal featuring a closing price above at least 911. Each of these scenarios involves the 910-913 target range.
Despite the high probability that we are about to make a turn and not likely to go much lower, until we see the turn confirmation signal this market could still reach the lower target range
E
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
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