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<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>While today could have been the bottom, we
still need to see a confirmation signal. Until then the lower targets are still
very viable possibilities. Particularly the 910-913 range. If today was not the
short term bottom we are very close as my cycle 1 indicator moved into the buy
zone with today’s price action.
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>If we do not make a lower low tomorrow,
and close above today’s high we will have our confirmation signal.
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>E
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><img
height=0 class=shape style='display:none;width:0;height:0'><img width=576 height=341
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><img
height=0 class=shape style='display:none;width:0;height:0'><img width=576 height=341
<font size=2 color="#993366"
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial'>
<font size=2 color="#993366"
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
Arial'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Monday, August 26, 2002 7:49
PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font size=3 color=blue
face="Times New Roman">We traded down
into the first target range today, and then moved higher out of it, but hold
off on the trigger finger this move down isn’t over yet. We will at the very
least test this first target range again before moving higher. The lower
targets have not been ruled out just yet.
<font size=3 color=blue
face="Times New Roman">
<font size=3 color=blue
face="Times New Roman">My short term
cycles indicators are currently
tracking a four day short term cycle which had a cycle inversion on Aug. 16th.
See attached word document for chart. The four day cycle is calling for a low
to be made on 8-28 plus or minus one day.
<font size=3 color=blue
face="Times New Roman">
<font size=3 color=blue
face="Times New Roman">E<font
color=black>
<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Saturday, August 24, 2002
7:46 PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: [RT] SPX forecast<font
color=black>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"> <font
color=black>
<font size=2 color=black
face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
color:black'>This post is an excerpt from a post to the snpforecasts list.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'><a
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts";>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>And is in
reference to the S&P 500 cash index.<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>There are three
valid target ranges for the next turn low. They are 927-934,<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>910-913, and
876-885. None of the three stands out above the others as the<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>most likely
target. We will of course have to let the market tell us which<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>one will be
correct. I will therefore, only deal with the first target for<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>now. Should the
first target fail to redirect prices upward I will then<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>present my case
for the next target.<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>For those of you
who are familiar with Elliott Wave Analysis (EWT) I have<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>attached a
chart, which gives my preferred wave count for the current<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>corrective wave
structure that began from the 7-24 low. I believe we are<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>currently in
impulse wave 3 of a large "A" wave. 8-22 completed minor wave<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>iii of impulse
wave 3. We are now forming minor wave iv of impulse wave 3.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>The first target
for minor wave iv is 927-934. There are two important wave<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>relationships
that support this target. First a .382 retracement of minor<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>wave iii which
began on 8-14 and terminated on 8-22 yields a price target of<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>930.98. .382
retracements are common for fourth waves. Secondly wave ii<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>consisted of
37.69 points. If wave four is of equal length, this would<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>target 927.15.<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>Additionally in
my 8-11 post I cited several technical aspects most relating<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>to my timing
models that suggested that we were in the midst of a very<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>strong medium
term up-trend. During strong moves four waves typically<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>correct 38.2% of
the preceding three wave. Therefore, the current strength<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>being exhibited
in the market lends more support to the likelihood of a .382<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>retracement move
for the current iv wave.<span
style='mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>If the 927-934
target range holds up as the termination point for the next<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>minor turn low
my timing model suggests it will occur during the 8-27 to<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>8-29 time frame.
If this level fails to hold support I will then discuss the<font
color=black>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>910-913 target
range.<span style='mso-fareast-font-family:
"Courier New";color:black'>
<span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>
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