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there is MORE than 80% probability that we WILL have a
lower low tomorrow
Ben
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Hill,
Ernie
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'">'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 10:03
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX forecast
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">While today could have been the bottom,
we still need to see a confirmation signal. Until then the lower targets are
still very viable possibilities. Particularly the 910-913 range. If today was
not the short term bottom we are very close as my cycle 1 indicator moved into
the buy zone with today’s price action.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">If we do not make a lower low tomorrow,
and close above today’s high we will have our confirmation
signal.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">E
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">
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style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"><IMG class=shape
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<FONT face=Arial color=#993366
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial color=#993366
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Tahoma color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original
Message-----From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent: Monday, August 26, 2002 7:49
PMTo:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: RE: [RT] SPX
forecast
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3>We traded down
into the first target range today, and then moved higher out of it, but hold
off on the trigger finger this move down isn’t over yet. We will at the very
least test this first target range again before moving higher. The lower
targets have not been ruled out just yet.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3>My short term
cycles indicators are currently
tracking a four day short term cycle which had a cycle inversion on Aug.
16th. See attached word document for chart. The four day cycle is
calling for a low to be made on 8-28 plus or minus one
day.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue">E<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT
face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Tahoma color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original
Message-----From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent: Saturday, August 24, 2002 7:46
PMTo:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: [RT] SPX
forecast<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=black size=3> <FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext">
<FONT face="Courier New"
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">This post is
an excerpt from a post to the snpforecasts list.<FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'"><A
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts";>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts<FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">And is in
reference to the S&P 500 cash index.<FONT
color=black><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">There are
three valid target ranges for the next turn low. They are
927-934,<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">910-913, and
876-885. None of the three stands out above the others as
the<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">most likely
target. We will of course have to let the market tell us
which<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">one will be
correct. I will therefore, only deal with the first target
for<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">now. Should
the first target fail to redirect prices upward I will
then<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">present my
case for the next target.<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">For those of
you who are familiar with Elliott Wave Analysis (EWT) I
have<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">attached a
chart, which gives my preferred wave count for the
current<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">corrective
wave structure that began from the 7-24 low. I believe we
are<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">currently in
impulse wave 3 of a large "A" wave. 8-22 completed minor
wave<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">iii of
impulse wave 3. We are now forming minor wave iv of impulse wave
3.<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">The first
target for minor wave iv is 927-934. There are two important
wave<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">relationships
that support this target. First a .382 retracement of
minor<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">wave iii
which began on 8-14 and terminated on 8-22 yields a price target
of<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">930.98. .382
retracements are common for fourth waves. Secondly wave
ii<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">consisted of
37.69 points. If wave four is of equal length, this
would<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">target
927.15.<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">Additionally
in my 8-11 post I cited several technical aspects most
relating<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">to my timing
models that suggested that we were in the midst of a
very<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">strong
medium term up-trend. During strong moves four waves
typically<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">correct
38.2% of the preceding three wave. Therefore, the current
strength<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">being
exhibited in the market lends more support to the likelihood of a
.382<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">retracement
move for the current iv wave.<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">If the
927-934 target range holds up as the termination point for the
next<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">minor turn
low my timing model suggests it will occur during the 8-27
to<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">8-29 time
frame. If this level fails to hold support I will then discuss
the<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><FONT
face="Courier New" color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">910-913
target range.<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Courier New'"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext"><FONT
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