RE: [RT] SPX forecast

["Hill, Ernie" <ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>]

<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>We traded down into the first target range
today, and then moved higher out of it, but hold off on the trigger finger this
move down isn&#8217;t over yet. We will at the very least test this first target
range again before moving higher. The lower targets have not been ruled out
just yet.

<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'> 

<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>My short term cycles indicators are<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes">  currently tracking a four day short
term cycle which had a cycle inversion on Aug. 16th. See attached
word document for chart. The four day cycle is calling for a low to be made on
8-28 plus or minus one day.

<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'> 

<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>E<span
style='color:navy;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>

<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'> 

<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Saturday, August 24, 2002
7:46 PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: [RT] SPX forecast

<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'> 

<font size=2 color=black
face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
color:black'>This post is an excerpt from a post to the snpforecasts list.<font
size=2 color=black face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
"Courier New";mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
And is in reference to the S&P 500 cash index.


There are three valid target ranges for the next turn low. They are
927-934,
910-913, and 876-885. None of the three stands out above the others as the
most likely target. We will of course have to let the market tell us which
one will be correct. I will therefore, only deal with the first target for
now. Should the first target fail to redirect prices upward I will then
present my case for the next target.

For those of you who are familiar with Elliott Wave Analysis (EWT) I have
attached a chart, which gives my preferred wave count for the current
corrective wave structure that began from the 7-24 low. I believe we are
currently in impulse wave 3 of a large "A" wave. 8-22 completed
minor wave
iii of impulse wave 3. We are now forming minor wave iv of impulse wave 3.

The first target for minor wave iv is 927-934. There are two important wave
relationships that support this target. First a .382 retracement of minor
wave iii which began on 8-14 and terminated on 8-22 yields a price target
of
930.98. .382 retracements are common for fourth waves. Secondly wave ii
consisted of 37.69 points. If wave four is of equal length, this would
target 927.15.

Additionally in my 8-11 post I cited several technical aspects most
relating
to my timing models that suggested that we were in the midst of a very
strong medium term up-trend. During strong moves four waves typically
correct 38.2% of the preceding three wave. Therefore, the current strength
being exhibited in the market lends more support to the likelihood of a
.382
retracement move for the current iv wave.

If the 927-934 target range holds up as the termination point for the next
minor turn low my timing model suggests it will occur during the 8-27 to
8-29 time frame. If this level fails to hold support I will then discuss
the
910-913 target range.
<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'>





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Attachment: Description: "SPX chart 8-26.doc"