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Um, gulp, now I'm scared: we seem to agree.
> What do you think is coming up BW, any thoughts?
I really don't know, but it'd be cool if it replayed the
70's a bit. In particular that DJI 7480 (38.2%) retracement
from the 1974 low. Then the DJI would have paid it's
respects to both '82 and '74 and could go off and churn
the bulls and burn the bears with big trading ranges like it did
in the 70's.... Probably just whistful thinking: the 70's
and 80's were fun times for me, I'd like to do it all
again.
For now my system is short and my count points down,
but the system could flip manana. We'll see.
BW
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> BW,
> Ahh I see, I probably did not phase that very well. The comment
about the
> bears is not a ST one (1-5 day correction), infact we will likely
correct
> the rally up. I am speaking a little longer term than a ST
correction,
> should it come in here, which very well could be profitable for a
bear. My
> comment would be more directed towards late September. As I have
said I am
> seeing some warnings that once any correction is over, we may take
out the
> rally highs in a larger wave c:4 on the daily (a correction here
being B:4
> on the daily). Maybe not, but the warnings are there
irregardless. In
> otherwords a possible bigger ABC, the abc on the 60min being wave
A:4? My
> targets for this rally was 968 to 974 and we fell slightly short.
>
> What do you think is coming up BW, any thoughts?
> don ewers
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, August 25, 2002 3:53 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
>
>
> > > DE: Look at the very right side of the 60min chart I sent (in
red,
> > swing target) :-)
> >
> > Of course, and yet with a direct hit on *your* AGET's simple as
ABC
> > target you say:
> >
> >
> > >....might be "up".....
> > > > > > Careful bears
> > > > > > > for the moment?
> > > > > > > don ewers
> >
> > ;-)
> >
> > This is my whole point and question: why ignore what your own
> > software seems to be saying loud and clear? I've looked at the
> > charts you posted and done the same calcs myself (I posted "960+"
> > here a week ago). Your software seems to be calling for a
potential
> > 200+/- point decline right from Thursday's high yet you seem to be
> > bullish cause of the PTI?
> >
> > BW
> >
> > PS: The thing that concerns me with this PTI stuff is that
> > bear market rallies tend to be very sharp. If the PTI is
> > a momentum based indicator, and someone claims it's right
> > 94% of the time, but most of their tests were done in post 1993
> > bull markets.... what can I say: it makes me wonder.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > BW,
> > > You asked "OK, so you are saying it's a momentum indicator that
> > predicts
> > > what the MACD will do?"
> > >
> > > DE: Not sure if I could say yes or no to that, I do not know the
> > algorithm?
> > > I view it mainly as a tool that tells me when I should be
> > questioning what
> > > are the other possibilities here, since something is not quite
> > right with
> > > this pattern. At that point would normally trade my trading
> > position from
> > > one with a good setup to one with a questionable setup (ala a
wave
> > 4 sell
> > > here thinking a new wave 5 low will come in from here). It's a
> > warning sign
> > > to not just jump on a type #1 trade which is after a wave 4 to
> > capture wave
> > > 5.
> > >
> > > BW: You asked " Most of the "testing" has been done in Bull
market
> > > conditions? Has it been tested on 1930's, 1966-1982, or recent
> > Nikkei data?
> > > "
> > >
> > > DE: I don't know the answer about how far they went back His
email
> > (Tom
> > > Joseph) is gettrader@xxxx I believe. You could email him and
ask for
> > > specifics I suppose, he would know if anyone?
> > >
> > > BW: You asked "Contrary to what" Recall you had asked in the
prior
> > email
> > > "Why / when would you ignore *your* clearly very bearish EW
count
> > based on
> > > the PTI?"
> > >
> > > DE: My answer was in my prior email that the low PTI is saying
> > something may
> > > be wrong, that the wave 4 may not be a normal wave 4, and as
such
> > prices can
> > > go higher than what a wave 4 normally does overall?
> > >
> > > BW: You asked "So many EWers on the list, yet not one mentioned
SPX
> > 966 is a
> > > perfect A=C"
> > >
> > > DE: Look at the very right side of the 60min chart I sent (in
red,
> > swing
> > > target) :-)
> > > don ewers
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Sunday, August 25, 2002 12:44 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > >
> > >
> > > > > 94% of all wave 4's will pull back to zero (or within 10%
of the
> > > > > wave 3's 3/35 oscillator height). If the wave
> > > > > 4's 5/35 oscillator drops below 1.4 of the height,
> > > >
> > > > OK, so you are saying it's a momentum indicator that predicts
> > > > what the MACD will do?
> > > >
> > > > > It has been thoroughly tested by AGET (they have had the
> > indicator
> > > > since 1993 at least)
> > > >
> > > > Most of the "testing" has been done in Bull market
conditions? Has
> > > > it been tested on 1930's, 1966-1982, or recent Nikkei data?
> > > >
> > > > Are the "tests" done on the original wave 4 counts or the
after
> > the
> > > > fact changed wave 4 counts? IOW, do they only count the data
after
> > > > they've turned out to be right?
> > > >
> > > > > Quite the contrary, a low PTI (below 35) is an indication
the
> > any
> > > > wave 5 will be a double bottom (or top)..
> > > >
> > > > Contrary to what?
> > > >
> > > > Once again, based on the DJI, a very moderate new low would
> > approach
> > > > 38.2% from 1974 near 7480. Also, the recent DJI low is near
the
> > 38.2%
> > > > retrace off the 1982 low (7555). In the fall of 1974 the SPX
rally
> > > > was just about the same percentage rally off the lows as the
SPX
> > > > peak last week. So many EWers on the list, yet not one
mentioned
> > > > SPX 966 is a perfect A=C. FWIW, the SPX did NOT make a new low
> > with
> > > > the DJI in the fall of 1974. That would seem to agree with
> > AGET "PTI"
> > > > call for a failed fifth.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > >
> > > > BW
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > BW,
> > > > > Quite the contrary, a low PTI (below 35) is an indication
the
> > any
> > > > wave 5
> > > > > will be a double bottom (or top) at the worst and a failed
5th
> > wave
> > > > at the
> > > > > best (meaning the wave 5 never occurs). In the case since
the
> > wave
> > > > 3 was
> > > > > down and the wave 4 was up, so it is currently saying any
wave 5
> > > > down,
> > > > > should it materialize, will "currently" not project wave 5
> > making a
> > > > new low
> > > > > (in this 5 wave pattern) and may just keep rallying up
> > utimately.
> > > > So not
> > > > > bearish, actually bullish.
> > > > >
> > > > > The PTI (Profit Taking Index) is a proprietary indicator
that
> > aids
> > > > in
> > > > > determining the probability of a wave 5, by measuring the
wave
> > 4
> > > > correction
> > > > > (it compares the Buying/Selling momentum in Wave 3 with the
> > > > Buying/Selling
> > > > > momentum in Wave 4). Basically it is an algorithm that "in
a
> > > > number"
> > > > > measures whether the wave 4 normal in price and time in
> > relation to
> > > > the
> > > > > previous wave 3. If it is not normal, one needs to be
> > suspicious
> > > > of what is
> > > > > mentioned above (double bottom or top or a failed 5th
wave), as
> > > > well as a
> > > > > possible wave count change (the 1-2-3 becomes A-B-C) and a
new
> > 1-2-
> > > > 3 starts
> > > > > from the previous end of wave 3).
> > > > >
> > > > > It has been thoroughly tested by AGET (they have had the
> > indicator
> > > > since
> > > > > 1993 at least) and I have found it to be one of the best
tools
> > in
> > > > analyzing
> > > > > any 300 bar count and measing a wave 4 to determine the
> > probability
> > > > of a
> > > > > wave 5. If you think of any move as a three wave affair
(ignore
> > > > the smaller
> > > > > wave 1 and wave 2, just think of it as two thrusts in one
> > > > direction, with a
> > > > > correction in between. The only statistic I havewhich was
from
> > > > 1993 said 21
> > > > > to 26% of the time the 2nd thrust fails to take out the
high (or
> > > > low) of the
> > > > > first thrust. The PTI is a tool that warns you that you
may be
> > in
> > > > one of
> > > > > those instances. The other stat I have is 94% of all wave
4's
> > will
> > > > pull back
> > > > > to zero (or within 10% of the wave 3's 3/35 oscillator
> > height). If
> > > > the wave
> > > > > 4's 5/35 oscillator drops below 1.4 of the height, this
will
> > also
> > > > send the
> > > > > PTI lower.
> > > > >
> > > > > Attached are the 60min (measuring count from 5-17-02 which
is
> > only
> > > > wave 3 on
> > > > > the daily) and daily charts (measuring the count from 3-19-
02
> > high)
> > > > and a
> > > > > weekly. Both are saying the same thing with the low
PTI's. On
> > the
> > > > 60min
> > > > > (in long term count) the rally also past the red wave 4
> > channels,
> > > > another
> > > > > warning this it is not a normal wave 4. Note the 5/35 and
10/70
> > > > oscillators
> > > > > (long term count) have both gone past the 1.40, saying they
> > > > have "lost
> > > > > control". We may correct this rally up, however AGET is
giving
> > > > hint's it
> > > > > may have futher to go ultimately?
> > > > >
> > > > > No PTI on a weekly since it is showing 5 waves in (PTI only
> > appear
> > > > between a
> > > > > wave 3 and a wave 4). There is some question on the count
there
> > > > because the
> > > > > wave 5's 5/35 oscillator is "bigger" than the wave 3's.
This
> > could
> > > > mean the
> > > > > count could expand again (wave 5 becomes wave 3 and we are
in
> > wave
> > > > 4 now)?
> > > > > If that count change occurs a PTI would appear, so jury out
> > there.
> > > > >
> > > > > Hope this helps and sorry about the long explanation.
> > > > > don ewers
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Friday, August 23, 2002 12:36 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > >My PTI cash is also saying this is not a normal wave 4
with
> > a PTI
> > > > > > >below 34 of 26? Careful bears for the moment?
> > > > > > > don ewers
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Is the PTI an indicator? What's its basis? Anyone coded
> > > > > > and tested it? What's the current weekly and hourly "PTI"?
> > > > > > Are they bullish too? Why / when would you ignore *your*
> > > > > > clearly very bearish EW count based on the PTI?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thanks,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > BW
> > > > > >
> > > > > > PS: You bulls be careful too now....
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > > Tend to agree Earl, something else might be "up". My
PTI
> > cash
> > > > is
> > > > > > also
> > > > > > > saying this is not a normal wave 4 with a PTI below 34
of
> > 26?
> > > > > > Careful bears
> > > > > > > for the moment?
> > > > > > > don ewers
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 11:00 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Advanced Get EOD, September EMini, Daily chart in
regular
> > > > count
> > > > > > (close to
> > > > > > > > shifting to long count) shows closing PTI for
Wednesday
> > at 26.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Earl
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > > From: "rashid subtain" <vze24c5m@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 11:13 AM
> > > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Hi Earl,
> > > > > > > > My PTI count shows 66.what software are u using.Thanks
> > for the
> > > > > > info
> >
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