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BW,
Ahh I see, I probably did not phase that very well. The comment about the
bears is not a ST one (1-5 day correction), infact we will likely correct
the rally up. I am speaking a little longer term than a ST correction,
should it come in here, which very well could be profitable for a bear. My
comment would be more directed towards late September. As I have said I am
seeing some warnings that once any correction is over, we may take out the
rally highs in a larger wave c:4 on the daily (a correction here being B:4
on the daily). Maybe not, but the warnings are there irregardless. In
otherwords a possible bigger ABC, the abc on the 60min being wave A:4? My
targets for this rally was 968 to 974 and we fell slightly short.
What do you think is coming up BW, any thoughts?
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, August 25, 2002 3:53 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > DE: Look at the very right side of the 60min chart I sent (in red,
> swing target) :-)
>
> Of course, and yet with a direct hit on *your* AGET's simple as ABC
> target you say:
>
>
> >....might be "up".....
> > > > > Careful bears
> > > > > > for the moment?
> > > > > > don ewers
>
> ;-)
>
> This is my whole point and question: why ignore what your own
> software seems to be saying loud and clear? I've looked at the
> charts you posted and done the same calcs myself (I posted "960+"
> here a week ago). Your software seems to be calling for a potential
> 200+/- point decline right from Thursday's high yet you seem to be
> bullish cause of the PTI?
>
> BW
>
> PS: The thing that concerns me with this PTI stuff is that
> bear market rallies tend to be very sharp. If the PTI is
> a momentum based indicator, and someone claims it's right
> 94% of the time, but most of their tests were done in post 1993
> bull markets.... what can I say: it makes me wonder.
>
>
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > BW,
> > You asked "OK, so you are saying it's a momentum indicator that
> predicts
> > what the MACD will do?"
> >
> > DE: Not sure if I could say yes or no to that, I do not know the
> algorithm?
> > I view it mainly as a tool that tells me when I should be
> questioning what
> > are the other possibilities here, since something is not quite
> right with
> > this pattern. At that point would normally trade my trading
> position from
> > one with a good setup to one with a questionable setup (ala a wave
> 4 sell
> > here thinking a new wave 5 low will come in from here). It's a
> warning sign
> > to not just jump on a type #1 trade which is after a wave 4 to
> capture wave
> > 5.
> >
> > BW: You asked " Most of the "testing" has been done in Bull market
> > conditions? Has it been tested on 1930's, 1966-1982, or recent
> Nikkei data?
> > "
> >
> > DE: I don't know the answer about how far they went back His email
> (Tom
> > Joseph) is gettrader@xxxx I believe. You could email him and ask for
> > specifics I suppose, he would know if anyone?
> >
> > BW: You asked "Contrary to what" Recall you had asked in the prior
> email
> > "Why / when would you ignore *your* clearly very bearish EW count
> based on
> > the PTI?"
> >
> > DE: My answer was in my prior email that the low PTI is saying
> something may
> > be wrong, that the wave 4 may not be a normal wave 4, and as such
> prices can
> > go higher than what a wave 4 normally does overall?
> >
> > BW: You asked "So many EWers on the list, yet not one mentioned SPX
> 966 is a
> > perfect A=C"
> >
> > DE: Look at the very right side of the 60min chart I sent (in red,
> swing
> > target) :-)
> > don ewers
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > Sent: Sunday, August 25, 2002 12:44 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> >
> >
> > > > 94% of all wave 4's will pull back to zero (or within 10% of the
> > > > wave 3's 3/35 oscillator height). If the wave
> > > > 4's 5/35 oscillator drops below 1.4 of the height,
> > >
> > > OK, so you are saying it's a momentum indicator that predicts
> > > what the MACD will do?
> > >
> > > > It has been thoroughly tested by AGET (they have had the
> indicator
> > > since 1993 at least)
> > >
> > > Most of the "testing" has been done in Bull market conditions? Has
> > > it been tested on 1930's, 1966-1982, or recent Nikkei data?
> > >
> > > Are the "tests" done on the original wave 4 counts or the after
> the
> > > fact changed wave 4 counts? IOW, do they only count the data after
> > > they've turned out to be right?
> > >
> > > > Quite the contrary, a low PTI (below 35) is an indication the
> any
> > > wave 5 will be a double bottom (or top)..
> > >
> > > Contrary to what?
> > >
> > > Once again, based on the DJI, a very moderate new low would
> approach
> > > 38.2% from 1974 near 7480. Also, the recent DJI low is near the
> 38.2%
> > > retrace off the 1982 low (7555). In the fall of 1974 the SPX rally
> > > was just about the same percentage rally off the lows as the SPX
> > > peak last week. So many EWers on the list, yet not one mentioned
> > > SPX 966 is a perfect A=C. FWIW, the SPX did NOT make a new low
> with
> > > the DJI in the fall of 1974. That would seem to agree with
> AGET "PTI"
> > > call for a failed fifth.
> > >
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > >
> > > BW
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > BW,
> > > > Quite the contrary, a low PTI (below 35) is an indication the
> any
> > > wave 5
> > > > will be a double bottom (or top) at the worst and a failed 5th
> wave
> > > at the
> > > > best (meaning the wave 5 never occurs). In the case since the
> wave
> > > 3 was
> > > > down and the wave 4 was up, so it is currently saying any wave 5
> > > down,
> > > > should it materialize, will "currently" not project wave 5
> making a
> > > new low
> > > > (in this 5 wave pattern) and may just keep rallying up
> utimately.
> > > So not
> > > > bearish, actually bullish.
> > > >
> > > > The PTI (Profit Taking Index) is a proprietary indicator that
> aids
> > > in
> > > > determining the probability of a wave 5, by measuring the wave
> 4
> > > correction
> > > > (it compares the Buying/Selling momentum in Wave 3 with the
> > > Buying/Selling
> > > > momentum in Wave 4). Basically it is an algorithm that "in a
> > > number"
> > > > measures whether the wave 4 normal in price and time in
> relation to
> > > the
> > > > previous wave 3. If it is not normal, one needs to be
> suspicious
> > > of what is
> > > > mentioned above (double bottom or top or a failed 5th wave), as
> > > well as a
> > > > possible wave count change (the 1-2-3 becomes A-B-C) and a new
> 1-2-
> > > 3 starts
> > > > from the previous end of wave 3).
> > > >
> > > > It has been thoroughly tested by AGET (they have had the
> indicator
> > > since
> > > > 1993 at least) and I have found it to be one of the best tools
> in
> > > analyzing
> > > > any 300 bar count and measing a wave 4 to determine the
> probability
> > > of a
> > > > wave 5. If you think of any move as a three wave affair (ignore
> > > the smaller
> > > > wave 1 and wave 2, just think of it as two thrusts in one
> > > direction, with a
> > > > correction in between. The only statistic I havewhich was from
> > > 1993 said 21
> > > > to 26% of the time the 2nd thrust fails to take out the high (or
> > > low) of the
> > > > first thrust. The PTI is a tool that warns you that you may be
> in
> > > one of
> > > > those instances. The other stat I have is 94% of all wave 4's
> will
> > > pull back
> > > > to zero (or within 10% of the wave 3's 3/35 oscillator
> height). If
> > > the wave
> > > > 4's 5/35 oscillator drops below 1.4 of the height, this will
> also
> > > send the
> > > > PTI lower.
> > > >
> > > > Attached are the 60min (measuring count from 5-17-02 which is
> only
> > > wave 3 on
> > > > the daily) and daily charts (measuring the count from 3-19-02
> high)
> > > and a
> > > > weekly. Both are saying the same thing with the low PTI's. On
> the
> > > 60min
> > > > (in long term count) the rally also past the red wave 4
> channels,
> > > another
> > > > warning this it is not a normal wave 4. Note the 5/35 and 10/70
> > > oscillators
> > > > (long term count) have both gone past the 1.40, saying they
> > > have "lost
> > > > control". We may correct this rally up, however AGET is giving
> > > hint's it
> > > > may have futher to go ultimately?
> > > >
> > > > No PTI on a weekly since it is showing 5 waves in (PTI only
> appear
> > > between a
> > > > wave 3 and a wave 4). There is some question on the count there
> > > because the
> > > > wave 5's 5/35 oscillator is "bigger" than the wave 3's. This
> could
> > > mean the
> > > > count could expand again (wave 5 becomes wave 3 and we are in
> wave
> > > 4 now)?
> > > > If that count change occurs a PTI would appear, so jury out
> there.
> > > >
> > > > Hope this helps and sorry about the long explanation.
> > > > don ewers
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Friday, August 23, 2002 12:36 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > >My PTI cash is also saying this is not a normal wave 4 with
> a PTI
> > > > > >below 34 of 26? Careful bears for the moment?
> > > > > > don ewers
> > > > >
> > > > > Is the PTI an indicator? What's its basis? Anyone coded
> > > > > and tested it? What's the current weekly and hourly "PTI"?
> > > > > Are they bullish too? Why / when would you ignore *your*
> > > > > clearly very bearish EW count based on the PTI?
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks,
> > > > >
> > > > > BW
> > > > >
> > > > > PS: You bulls be careful too now....
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > Tend to agree Earl, something else might be "up". My PTI
> cash
> > > is
> > > > > also
> > > > > > saying this is not a normal wave 4 with a PTI below 34 of
> 26?
> > > > > Careful bears
> > > > > > for the moment?
> > > > > > don ewers
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 11:00 AM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Advanced Get EOD, September EMini, Daily chart in regular
> > > count
> > > > > (close to
> > > > > > > shifting to long count) shows closing PTI for Wednesday
> at 26.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Earl
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "rashid subtain" <vze24c5m@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 11:13 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Hi Earl,
> > > > > > > My PTI count shows 66.what software are u using.Thanks
> for the
> > > > > info
> > > > > > > Rashid
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: Earl Adamy
> > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 8:50 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Here's your W.4, however the low PTI of 29 suggests any
> W.5,
> > > > > should it
> > > > > > > occur
> > > > > > > (I suspect that the W.3 decline was terminal because of
> the
> > > > > extreme fib
> > > > > > > extensions in all indexes), will not reach new lows. I
> > > expect
> > > > > that the
> > > > > > > bear
> > > > > > > market rally will continue higher before the next major
> leg
> > > > > down.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Earl
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "rashid subtain" <vze24c5m@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 9:39 PM
> > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Hi group,
> > > > > > > Some elliott wave counter can tell me if the ESu2, 4th
> wave
> > > has
> > > > > ended
> > > > > > and
> > > > > > > the fifth wave is about to start.And can go down about
> 80
> > > point.
> > > > > > > Thanks
> > > > > > > Rashid
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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