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> DE: Look at the very right side of the 60min chart I sent (in red,
swing target) :-)
Of course, and yet with a direct hit on *your* AGET's simple as ABC
target you say:
>....might be "up".....
> > > > Careful bears
> > > > > for the moment?
> > > > > don ewers
;-)
This is my whole point and question: why ignore what your own
software seems to be saying loud and clear? I've looked at the
charts you posted and done the same calcs myself (I posted "960+"
here a week ago). Your software seems to be calling for a potential
200+/- point decline right from Thursday's high yet you seem to be
bullish cause of the PTI?
BW
PS: The thing that concerns me with this PTI stuff is that
bear market rallies tend to be very sharp. If the PTI is
a momentum based indicator, and someone claims it's right
94% of the time, but most of their tests were done in post 1993
bull markets.... what can I say: it makes me wonder.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> BW,
> You asked "OK, so you are saying it's a momentum indicator that
predicts
> what the MACD will do?"
>
> DE: Not sure if I could say yes or no to that, I do not know the
algorithm?
> I view it mainly as a tool that tells me when I should be
questioning what
> are the other possibilities here, since something is not quite
right with
> this pattern. At that point would normally trade my trading
position from
> one with a good setup to one with a questionable setup (ala a wave
4 sell
> here thinking a new wave 5 low will come in from here). It's a
warning sign
> to not just jump on a type #1 trade which is after a wave 4 to
capture wave
> 5.
>
> BW: You asked " Most of the "testing" has been done in Bull market
> conditions? Has it been tested on 1930's, 1966-1982, or recent
Nikkei data?
> "
>
> DE: I don't know the answer about how far they went back His email
(Tom
> Joseph) is gettrader@xxxx I believe. You could email him and ask for
> specifics I suppose, he would know if anyone?
>
> BW: You asked "Contrary to what" Recall you had asked in the prior
email
> "Why / when would you ignore *your* clearly very bearish EW count
based on
> the PTI?"
>
> DE: My answer was in my prior email that the low PTI is saying
something may
> be wrong, that the wave 4 may not be a normal wave 4, and as such
prices can
> go higher than what a wave 4 normally does overall?
>
> BW: You asked "So many EWers on the list, yet not one mentioned SPX
966 is a
> perfect A=C"
>
> DE: Look at the very right side of the 60min chart I sent (in red,
swing
> target) :-)
> don ewers
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, August 25, 2002 12:44 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
>
>
> > > 94% of all wave 4's will pull back to zero (or within 10% of the
> > > wave 3's 3/35 oscillator height). If the wave
> > > 4's 5/35 oscillator drops below 1.4 of the height,
> >
> > OK, so you are saying it's a momentum indicator that predicts
> > what the MACD will do?
> >
> > > It has been thoroughly tested by AGET (they have had the
indicator
> > since 1993 at least)
> >
> > Most of the "testing" has been done in Bull market conditions? Has
> > it been tested on 1930's, 1966-1982, or recent Nikkei data?
> >
> > Are the "tests" done on the original wave 4 counts or the after
the
> > fact changed wave 4 counts? IOW, do they only count the data after
> > they've turned out to be right?
> >
> > > Quite the contrary, a low PTI (below 35) is an indication the
any
> > wave 5 will be a double bottom (or top)..
> >
> > Contrary to what?
> >
> > Once again, based on the DJI, a very moderate new low would
approach
> > 38.2% from 1974 near 7480. Also, the recent DJI low is near the
38.2%
> > retrace off the 1982 low (7555). In the fall of 1974 the SPX rally
> > was just about the same percentage rally off the lows as the SPX
> > peak last week. So many EWers on the list, yet not one mentioned
> > SPX 966 is a perfect A=C. FWIW, the SPX did NOT make a new low
with
> > the DJI in the fall of 1974. That would seem to agree with
AGET "PTI"
> > call for a failed fifth.
> >
> >
> > Thanks,
> >
> > BW
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > BW,
> > > Quite the contrary, a low PTI (below 35) is an indication the
any
> > wave 5
> > > will be a double bottom (or top) at the worst and a failed 5th
wave
> > at the
> > > best (meaning the wave 5 never occurs). In the case since the
wave
> > 3 was
> > > down and the wave 4 was up, so it is currently saying any wave 5
> > down,
> > > should it materialize, will "currently" not project wave 5
making a
> > new low
> > > (in this 5 wave pattern) and may just keep rallying up
utimately.
> > So not
> > > bearish, actually bullish.
> > >
> > > The PTI (Profit Taking Index) is a proprietary indicator that
aids
> > in
> > > determining the probability of a wave 5, by measuring the wave
4
> > correction
> > > (it compares the Buying/Selling momentum in Wave 3 with the
> > Buying/Selling
> > > momentum in Wave 4). Basically it is an algorithm that "in a
> > number"
> > > measures whether the wave 4 normal in price and time in
relation to
> > the
> > > previous wave 3. If it is not normal, one needs to be
suspicious
> > of what is
> > > mentioned above (double bottom or top or a failed 5th wave), as
> > well as a
> > > possible wave count change (the 1-2-3 becomes A-B-C) and a new
1-2-
> > 3 starts
> > > from the previous end of wave 3).
> > >
> > > It has been thoroughly tested by AGET (they have had the
indicator
> > since
> > > 1993 at least) and I have found it to be one of the best tools
in
> > analyzing
> > > any 300 bar count and measing a wave 4 to determine the
probability
> > of a
> > > wave 5. If you think of any move as a three wave affair (ignore
> > the smaller
> > > wave 1 and wave 2, just think of it as two thrusts in one
> > direction, with a
> > > correction in between. The only statistic I havewhich was from
> > 1993 said 21
> > > to 26% of the time the 2nd thrust fails to take out the high (or
> > low) of the
> > > first thrust. The PTI is a tool that warns you that you may be
in
> > one of
> > > those instances. The other stat I have is 94% of all wave 4's
will
> > pull back
> > > to zero (or within 10% of the wave 3's 3/35 oscillator
height). If
> > the wave
> > > 4's 5/35 oscillator drops below 1.4 of the height, this will
also
> > send the
> > > PTI lower.
> > >
> > > Attached are the 60min (measuring count from 5-17-02 which is
only
> > wave 3 on
> > > the daily) and daily charts (measuring the count from 3-19-02
high)
> > and a
> > > weekly. Both are saying the same thing with the low PTI's. On
the
> > 60min
> > > (in long term count) the rally also past the red wave 4
channels,
> > another
> > > warning this it is not a normal wave 4. Note the 5/35 and 10/70
> > oscillators
> > > (long term count) have both gone past the 1.40, saying they
> > have "lost
> > > control". We may correct this rally up, however AGET is giving
> > hint's it
> > > may have futher to go ultimately?
> > >
> > > No PTI on a weekly since it is showing 5 waves in (PTI only
appear
> > between a
> > > wave 3 and a wave 4). There is some question on the count there
> > because the
> > > wave 5's 5/35 oscillator is "bigger" than the wave 3's. This
could
> > mean the
> > > count could expand again (wave 5 becomes wave 3 and we are in
wave
> > 4 now)?
> > > If that count change occurs a PTI would appear, so jury out
there.
> > >
> > > Hope this helps and sorry about the long explanation.
> > > don ewers
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, August 23, 2002 12:36 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > >
> > >
> > > > >My PTI cash is also saying this is not a normal wave 4 with
a PTI
> > > > >below 34 of 26? Careful bears for the moment?
> > > > > don ewers
> > > >
> > > > Is the PTI an indicator? What's its basis? Anyone coded
> > > > and tested it? What's the current weekly and hourly "PTI"?
> > > > Are they bullish too? Why / when would you ignore *your*
> > > > clearly very bearish EW count based on the PTI?
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > >
> > > > BW
> > > >
> > > > PS: You bulls be careful too now....
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Tend to agree Earl, something else might be "up". My PTI
cash
> > is
> > > > also
> > > > > saying this is not a normal wave 4 with a PTI below 34 of
26?
> > > > Careful bears
> > > > > for the moment?
> > > > > don ewers
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 11:00 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Advanced Get EOD, September EMini, Daily chart in regular
> > count
> > > > (close to
> > > > > > shifting to long count) shows closing PTI for Wednesday
at 26.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Earl
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "rashid subtain" <vze24c5m@xxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 11:13 AM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Hi Earl,
> > > > > > My PTI count shows 66.what software are u using.Thanks
for the
> > > > info
> > > > > > Rashid
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: Earl Adamy
> > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 8:50 AM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Here's your W.4, however the low PTI of 29 suggests any
W.5,
> > > > should it
> > > > > > occur
> > > > > > (I suspect that the W.3 decline was terminal because of
the
> > > > extreme fib
> > > > > > extensions in all indexes), will not reach new lows. I
> > expect
> > > > that the
> > > > > > bear
> > > > > > market rally will continue higher before the next major
leg
> > > > down.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Earl
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "rashid subtain" <vze24c5m@xxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 9:39 PM
> > > > > > Subject: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Hi group,
> > > > > > Some elliott wave counter can tell me if the ESu2, 4th
wave
> > has
> > > > ended
> > > > > and
> > > > > > the fifth wave is about to start.And can go down about
80
> > point.
> > > > > > Thanks
> > > > > > Rashid
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ---
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> >
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>
>
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