|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
BW,
You asked "OK, so you are saying it's a momentum indicator that predicts
what the MACD will do?"
DE: Not sure if I could say yes or no to that, I do not know the algorithm?
I view it mainly as a tool that tells me when I should be questioning what
are the other possibilities here, since something is not quite right with
this pattern. At that point would normally trade my trading position from
one with a good setup to one with a questionable setup (ala a wave 4 sell
here thinking a new wave 5 low will come in from here). It's a warning sign
to not just jump on a type #1 trade which is after a wave 4 to capture wave
5.
BW: You asked " Most of the "testing" has been done in Bull market
conditions? Has it been tested on 1930's, 1966-1982, or recent Nikkei data?
"
DE: I don't know the answer about how far they went back His email (Tom
Joseph) is gettrader@xxxxxxxxx I believe. You could email him and ask for
specifics I suppose, he would know if anyone?
BW: You asked "Contrary to what" Recall you had asked in the prior email
"Why / when would you ignore *your* clearly very bearish EW count based on
the PTI?"
DE: My answer was in my prior email that the low PTI is saying something may
be wrong, that the wave 4 may not be a normal wave 4, and as such prices can
go higher than what a wave 4 normally does overall?
BW: You asked "So many EWers on the list, yet not one mentioned SPX 966 is a
perfect A=C"
DE: Look at the very right side of the 60min chart I sent (in red, swing
target) :-)
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, August 25, 2002 12:44 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > 94% of all wave 4's will pull back to zero (or within 10% of the
> > wave 3's 3/35 oscillator height). If the wave
> > 4's 5/35 oscillator drops below 1.4 of the height,
>
> OK, so you are saying it's a momentum indicator that predicts
> what the MACD will do?
>
> > It has been thoroughly tested by AGET (they have had the indicator
> since 1993 at least)
>
> Most of the "testing" has been done in Bull market conditions? Has
> it been tested on 1930's, 1966-1982, or recent Nikkei data?
>
> Are the "tests" done on the original wave 4 counts or the after the
> fact changed wave 4 counts? IOW, do they only count the data after
> they've turned out to be right?
>
> > Quite the contrary, a low PTI (below 35) is an indication the any
> wave 5 will be a double bottom (or top)..
>
> Contrary to what?
>
> Once again, based on the DJI, a very moderate new low would approach
> 38.2% from 1974 near 7480. Also, the recent DJI low is near the 38.2%
> retrace off the 1982 low (7555). In the fall of 1974 the SPX rally
> was just about the same percentage rally off the lows as the SPX
> peak last week. So many EWers on the list, yet not one mentioned
> SPX 966 is a perfect A=C. FWIW, the SPX did NOT make a new low with
> the DJI in the fall of 1974. That would seem to agree with AGET "PTI"
> call for a failed fifth.
>
>
> Thanks,
>
> BW
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > BW,
> > Quite the contrary, a low PTI (below 35) is an indication the any
> wave 5
> > will be a double bottom (or top) at the worst and a failed 5th wave
> at the
> > best (meaning the wave 5 never occurs). In the case since the wave
> 3 was
> > down and the wave 4 was up, so it is currently saying any wave 5
> down,
> > should it materialize, will "currently" not project wave 5 making a
> new low
> > (in this 5 wave pattern) and may just keep rallying up utimately.
> So not
> > bearish, actually bullish.
> >
> > The PTI (Profit Taking Index) is a proprietary indicator that aids
> in
> > determining the probability of a wave 5, by measuring the wave 4
> correction
> > (it compares the Buying/Selling momentum in Wave 3 with the
> Buying/Selling
> > momentum in Wave 4). Basically it is an algorithm that "in a
> number"
> > measures whether the wave 4 normal in price and time in relation to
> the
> > previous wave 3. If it is not normal, one needs to be suspicious
> of what is
> > mentioned above (double bottom or top or a failed 5th wave), as
> well as a
> > possible wave count change (the 1-2-3 becomes A-B-C) and a new 1-2-
> 3 starts
> > from the previous end of wave 3).
> >
> > It has been thoroughly tested by AGET (they have had the indicator
> since
> > 1993 at least) and I have found it to be one of the best tools in
> analyzing
> > any 300 bar count and measing a wave 4 to determine the probability
> of a
> > wave 5. If you think of any move as a three wave affair (ignore
> the smaller
> > wave 1 and wave 2, just think of it as two thrusts in one
> direction, with a
> > correction in between. The only statistic I havewhich was from
> 1993 said 21
> > to 26% of the time the 2nd thrust fails to take out the high (or
> low) of the
> > first thrust. The PTI is a tool that warns you that you may be in
> one of
> > those instances. The other stat I have is 94% of all wave 4's will
> pull back
> > to zero (or within 10% of the wave 3's 3/35 oscillator height). If
> the wave
> > 4's 5/35 oscillator drops below 1.4 of the height, this will also
> send the
> > PTI lower.
> >
> > Attached are the 60min (measuring count from 5-17-02 which is only
> wave 3 on
> > the daily) and daily charts (measuring the count from 3-19-02 high)
> and a
> > weekly. Both are saying the same thing with the low PTI's. On the
> 60min
> > (in long term count) the rally also past the red wave 4 channels,
> another
> > warning this it is not a normal wave 4. Note the 5/35 and 10/70
> oscillators
> > (long term count) have both gone past the 1.40, saying they
> have "lost
> > control". We may correct this rally up, however AGET is giving
> hint's it
> > may have futher to go ultimately?
> >
> > No PTI on a weekly since it is showing 5 waves in (PTI only appear
> between a
> > wave 3 and a wave 4). There is some question on the count there
> because the
> > wave 5's 5/35 oscillator is "bigger" than the wave 3's. This could
> mean the
> > count could expand again (wave 5 becomes wave 3 and we are in wave
> 4 now)?
> > If that count change occurs a PTI would appear, so jury out there.
> >
> > Hope this helps and sorry about the long explanation.
> > don ewers
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, August 23, 2002 12:36 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> >
> >
> > > >My PTI cash is also saying this is not a normal wave 4 with a PTI
> > > >below 34 of 26? Careful bears for the moment?
> > > > don ewers
> > >
> > > Is the PTI an indicator? What's its basis? Anyone coded
> > > and tested it? What's the current weekly and hourly "PTI"?
> > > Are they bullish too? Why / when would you ignore *your*
> > > clearly very bearish EW count based on the PTI?
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > >
> > > BW
> > >
> > > PS: You bulls be careful too now....
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Tend to agree Earl, something else might be "up". My PTI cash
> is
> > > also
> > > > saying this is not a normal wave 4 with a PTI below 34 of 26?
> > > Careful bears
> > > > for the moment?
> > > > don ewers
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 11:00 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Advanced Get EOD, September EMini, Daily chart in regular
> count
> > > (close to
> > > > > shifting to long count) shows closing PTI for Wednesday at 26.
> > > > >
> > > > > Earl
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "rashid subtain" <vze24c5m@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 11:13 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Hi Earl,
> > > > > My PTI count shows 66.what software are u using.Thanks for the
> > > info
> > > > > Rashid
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: Earl Adamy
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 8:50 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Here's your W.4, however the low PTI of 29 suggests any W.5,
> > > should it
> > > > > occur
> > > > > (I suspect that the W.3 decline was terminal because of the
> > > extreme fib
> > > > > extensions in all indexes), will not reach new lows. I
> expect
> > > that the
> > > > > bear
> > > > > market rally will continue higher before the next major leg
> > > down.
> > > > >
> > > > > Earl
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "rashid subtain" <vze24c5m@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 9:39 PM
> > > > > Subject: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Hi group,
> > > > > Some elliott wave counter can tell me if the ESu2, 4th wave
> has
> > > ended
> > > > and
> > > > > the fifth wave is about to start.And can go down about 80
> point.
> > > > > Thanks
> > > > > Rashid
> >
> >
> >
> > ---
> > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > Version: 6.0.377 / Virus Database: 211 - Release Date: 7/15/02
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.377 / Virus Database: 211 - Release Date: 7/15/02
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
4 DVDs Free +s&p Join Now
http://us.click.yahoo.com/pt6YBB/NXiEAA/mG3HAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Attachment:
Description: "SPX60min082302.gif"
|