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> 94% of all wave 4's will pull back to zero (or within 10% of the
> wave 3's 3/35 oscillator height). If the wave
> 4's 5/35 oscillator drops below 1.4 of the height,
OK, so you are saying it's a momentum indicator that predicts
what the MACD will do?
> It has been thoroughly tested by AGET (they have had the indicator
since 1993 at least)
Most of the "testing" has been done in Bull market conditions? Has
it been tested on 1930's, 1966-1982, or recent Nikkei data?
Are the "tests" done on the original wave 4 counts or the after the
fact changed wave 4 counts? IOW, do they only count the data after
they've turned out to be right?
> Quite the contrary, a low PTI (below 35) is an indication the any
wave 5 will be a double bottom (or top)..
Contrary to what?
Once again, based on the DJI, a very moderate new low would approach
38.2% from 1974 near 7480. Also, the recent DJI low is near the 38.2%
retrace off the 1982 low (7555). In the fall of 1974 the SPX rally
was just about the same percentage rally off the lows as the SPX
peak last week. So many EWers on the list, yet not one mentioned
SPX 966 is a perfect A=C. FWIW, the SPX did NOT make a new low with
the DJI in the fall of 1974. That would seem to agree with AGET "PTI"
call for a failed fifth.
Thanks,
BW
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> BW,
> Quite the contrary, a low PTI (below 35) is an indication the any
wave 5
> will be a double bottom (or top) at the worst and a failed 5th wave
at the
> best (meaning the wave 5 never occurs). In the case since the wave
3 was
> down and the wave 4 was up, so it is currently saying any wave 5
down,
> should it materialize, will "currently" not project wave 5 making a
new low
> (in this 5 wave pattern) and may just keep rallying up utimately.
So not
> bearish, actually bullish.
>
> The PTI (Profit Taking Index) is a proprietary indicator that aids
in
> determining the probability of a wave 5, by measuring the wave 4
correction
> (it compares the Buying/Selling momentum in Wave 3 with the
Buying/Selling
> momentum in Wave 4). Basically it is an algorithm that "in a
number"
> measures whether the wave 4 normal in price and time in relation to
the
> previous wave 3. If it is not normal, one needs to be suspicious
of what is
> mentioned above (double bottom or top or a failed 5th wave), as
well as a
> possible wave count change (the 1-2-3 becomes A-B-C) and a new 1-2-
3 starts
> from the previous end of wave 3).
>
> It has been thoroughly tested by AGET (they have had the indicator
since
> 1993 at least) and I have found it to be one of the best tools in
analyzing
> any 300 bar count and measing a wave 4 to determine the probability
of a
> wave 5. If you think of any move as a three wave affair (ignore
the smaller
> wave 1 and wave 2, just think of it as two thrusts in one
direction, with a
> correction in between. The only statistic I havewhich was from
1993 said 21
> to 26% of the time the 2nd thrust fails to take out the high (or
low) of the
> first thrust. The PTI is a tool that warns you that you may be in
one of
> those instances. The other stat I have is 94% of all wave 4's will
pull back
> to zero (or within 10% of the wave 3's 3/35 oscillator height). If
the wave
> 4's 5/35 oscillator drops below 1.4 of the height, this will also
send the
> PTI lower.
>
> Attached are the 60min (measuring count from 5-17-02 which is only
wave 3 on
> the daily) and daily charts (measuring the count from 3-19-02 high)
and a
> weekly. Both are saying the same thing with the low PTI's. On the
60min
> (in long term count) the rally also past the red wave 4 channels,
another
> warning this it is not a normal wave 4. Note the 5/35 and 10/70
oscillators
> (long term count) have both gone past the 1.40, saying they
have "lost
> control". We may correct this rally up, however AGET is giving
hint's it
> may have futher to go ultimately?
>
> No PTI on a weekly since it is showing 5 waves in (PTI only appear
between a
> wave 3 and a wave 4). There is some question on the count there
because the
> wave 5's 5/35 oscillator is "bigger" than the wave 3's. This could
mean the
> count could expand again (wave 5 becomes wave 3 and we are in wave
4 now)?
> If that count change occurs a PTI would appear, so jury out there.
>
> Hope this helps and sorry about the long explanation.
> don ewers
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> Sent: Friday, August 23, 2002 12:36 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
>
>
> > >My PTI cash is also saying this is not a normal wave 4 with a PTI
> > >below 34 of 26? Careful bears for the moment?
> > > don ewers
> >
> > Is the PTI an indicator? What's its basis? Anyone coded
> > and tested it? What's the current weekly and hourly "PTI"?
> > Are they bullish too? Why / when would you ignore *your*
> > clearly very bearish EW count based on the PTI?
> >
> > Thanks,
> >
> > BW
> >
> > PS: You bulls be careful too now....
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Tend to agree Earl, something else might be "up". My PTI cash
is
> > also
> > > saying this is not a normal wave 4 with a PTI below 34 of 26?
> > Careful bears
> > > for the moment?
> > > don ewers
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 11:00 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > >
> > >
> > > > Advanced Get EOD, September EMini, Daily chart in regular
count
> > (close to
> > > > shifting to long count) shows closing PTI for Wednesday at 26.
> > > >
> > > > Earl
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "rashid subtain" <vze24c5m@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 11:13 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi Earl,
> > > > My PTI count shows 66.what software are u using.Thanks for the
> > info
> > > > Rashid
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Earl Adamy
> > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 8:50 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Here's your W.4, however the low PTI of 29 suggests any W.5,
> > should it
> > > > occur
> > > > (I suspect that the W.3 decline was terminal because of the
> > extreme fib
> > > > extensions in all indexes), will not reach new lows. I
expect
> > that the
> > > > bear
> > > > market rally will continue higher before the next major leg
> > down.
> > > >
> > > > Earl
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "rashid subtain" <vze24c5m@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 9:39 PM
> > > > Subject: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi group,
> > > > Some elliott wave counter can tell me if the ESu2, 4th wave
has
> > ended
> > > and
> > > > the fifth wave is about to start.And can go down about 80
point.
> > > > Thanks
> > > > Rashid
>
>
>
> ---
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