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BW,
Quite the contrary, a low PTI (below 35) is an indication the any wave 5
will be a double bottom (or top) at the worst and a failed 5th wave at the
best (meaning the wave 5 never occurs). In the case since the wave 3 was
down and the wave 4 was up, so it is currently saying any wave 5 down,
should it materialize, will "currently" not project wave 5 making a new low
(in this 5 wave pattern) and may just keep rallying up utimately. So not
bearish, actually bullish.
The PTI (Profit Taking Index) is a proprietary indicator that aids in
determining the probability of a wave 5, by measuring the wave 4 correction
(it compares the Buying/Selling momentum in Wave 3 with the Buying/Selling
momentum in Wave 4). Basically it is an algorithm that "in a number"
measures whether the wave 4 normal in price and time in relation to the
previous wave 3. If it is not normal, one needs to be suspicious of what is
mentioned above (double bottom or top or a failed 5th wave), as well as a
possible wave count change (the 1-2-3 becomes A-B-C) and a new 1-2-3 starts
from the previous end of wave 3).
It has been thoroughly tested by AGET (they have had the indicator since
1993 at least) and I have found it to be one of the best tools in analyzing
any 300 bar count and measing a wave 4 to determine the probability of a
wave 5. If you think of any move as a three wave affair (ignore the smaller
wave 1 and wave 2, just think of it as two thrusts in one direction, with a
correction in between. The only statistic I havewhich was from 1993 said 21
to 26% of the time the 2nd thrust fails to take out the high (or low) of the
first thrust. The PTI is a tool that warns you that you may be in one of
those instances. The other stat I have is 94% of all wave 4's will pull back
to zero (or within 10% of the wave 3's 3/35 oscillator height). If the wave
4's 5/35 oscillator drops below 1.4 of the height, this will also send the
PTI lower.
Attached are the 60min (measuring count from 5-17-02 which is only wave 3 on
the daily) and daily charts (measuring the count from 3-19-02 high) and a
weekly. Both are saying the same thing with the low PTI's. On the 60min
(in long term count) the rally also past the red wave 4 channels, another
warning this it is not a normal wave 4. Note the 5/35 and 10/70 oscillators
(long term count) have both gone past the 1.40, saying they have "lost
control". We may correct this rally up, however AGET is giving hint's it
may have futher to go ultimately?
No PTI on a weekly since it is showing 5 waves in (PTI only appear between a
wave 3 and a wave 4). There is some question on the count there because the
wave 5's 5/35 oscillator is "bigger" than the wave 3's. This could mean the
count could expand again (wave 5 becomes wave 3 and we are in wave 4 now)?
If that count change occurs a PTI would appear, so jury out there.
Hope this helps and sorry about the long explanation.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, August 23, 2002 12:36 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> >My PTI cash is also saying this is not a normal wave 4 with a PTI
> >below 34 of 26? Careful bears for the moment?
> > don ewers
>
> Is the PTI an indicator? What's its basis? Anyone coded
> and tested it? What's the current weekly and hourly "PTI"?
> Are they bullish too? Why / when would you ignore *your*
> clearly very bearish EW count based on the PTI?
>
> Thanks,
>
> BW
>
> PS: You bulls be careful too now....
>
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > Tend to agree Earl, something else might be "up". My PTI cash is
> also
> > saying this is not a normal wave 4 with a PTI below 34 of 26?
> Careful bears
> > for the moment?
> > don ewers
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, August 22, 2002 11:00 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> >
> >
> > > Advanced Get EOD, September EMini, Daily chart in regular count
> (close to
> > > shifting to long count) shows closing PTI for Wednesday at 26.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "rashid subtain" <vze24c5m@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 11:13 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi Earl,
> > > My PTI count shows 66.what software are u using.Thanks for the
> info
> > > Rashid
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Earl Adamy
> > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 8:50 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > >
> > >
> > > Here's your W.4, however the low PTI of 29 suggests any W.5,
> should it
> > > occur
> > > (I suspect that the W.3 decline was terminal because of the
> extreme fib
> > > extensions in all indexes), will not reach new lows. I expect
> that the
> > > bear
> > > market rally will continue higher before the next major leg
> down.
> > >
> > > Earl
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "rashid subtain" <vze24c5m@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 9:39 PM
> > > Subject: [RT] Elliott wave count
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi group,
> > > Some elliott wave counter can tell me if the ESu2, 4th wave has
> ended
> > and
> > > the fifth wave is about to start.And can go down about 80 point.
> > > Thanks
> > > Rashid
---
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