|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I really have no opinion on either way. I read in several
publications during Dubya's campaign that Daddy Bush blamed
Greenspan's tight monetary policy for blowing his reelection. Daddy
Bush had the highest public approval rating immediately after the
Gulf War (2/91) and blowing the election was bigger than this market
reversal. I didn't make it up. Obviously Bush Snr believes
Greenspan took too long to loosen and the 91 recession/tepid recovery
of 92 hurt him. Gotta blame someone and Alan the easiest one to
point his finger at. I'm sure "read my lips" and Dan Quayle didn't
help his chances but it reelections really do depend on the state of
the economy.
As far as Alan's loose rate experiment, its well known that Alan had
this pet theory of tech based productivity gains dampening
inflationary pressures. So in spite of strong (service)economy gains
in 1996-98, he held off from over tightening. In fact, I've heard
that his 3/97 one time hike was done reluctantly at the insistance of
the Fed Board. Its also said that Greenspan had a tacit
understanding with the Clinton administration (Rubin) that he would
lay off tight monetary policy if they balanced the budget. Everyone
loves to blame Alan for creating the bubble although now its clear it
was all based on false accounting, share buybacks, media hype and
greed. The earnings were never there. Of course, demographics
(boomers pouring their retirement money into stocks) and foreign
investment(strong dollar) had alot to do with it. But the fact of
the matter is that Al simply sat on his hands while it all spiraled
into a mania. He warned of it bubbling in 12/96, watched it take off
then smugly watched it collapse. Would it have been better if he had
nipped it in the bud by raising rates more and tightening margin
requirements in 1997? I guess that depends on if you got out at the
top. If he had pulled a Volcker and tightened the screws, the Asian
crisis, Russian crisis, and LTCM could just as well have collapsed
the entire financial system. My only opinion is that he should have
at least raised margin requirements. And then there's that garbage
he lays out that he doesn't target the stock market. Yeah right.
Funds are at 1.75% right now. Is the economy that bad right now?
Only because it was allowed to get out of control.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
>
> > I don't where his allegiances lay.
>
> >>>Alan was a good friend of the
> > > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary at public
> > > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al
because
> he > > > feels his tight policy lost him the election in 1992.
>
> I guess I didn't understand.
>
> > But he sure tightened the screws
> > in 88-90.
>
> Rate cuts in 90-92 were too late
> > > to save Bush Snr
>
> Again, I'm not clear. Are you saying he was trying to screw Bush
> Sr. or save him?
>
> > He said the market was "irrational exuberant" in 12/96. We
almost
> > got back down there last month no thanks to him.
>
> You're saying his "12/96" speech caused the market to decline from
> 2000-2002?
>
> I know a lot of folks are bitter about the decline in the market,
> and want to blame someone, but I don't think you can have it both
> ways. If you blame him for the decline don't you have to give him
> credit for the greatest bull market in history? I don't think he
> deserves either. The markets are going to do what they want, all
> the fed does is goose it here and there. Check your own time
> line as proof: look at a chart after his 1996 speech; the NDX
> was up 500%+ in three years.
>
> BW
>
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Yeah, another left-winger Ford and Reagan appointed?
> > >
> > > http://www.federalreserve.gov/bios/greenspan.htm
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > They said the same in fall 1998. Alan was a good friend of
the
> > > > Clintons. He used to always sit next to Hillary at public
> > > > ceremonies. Daddy Bush still holds a grudge against Al
because
> > he
> > > > feels his tight policy lost him the election in 1992.
Remember
> > Al
> > > > raised rates up to 11% in 1989. Rate cuts in 90-92 were too
> late
> > > to
> > > > save Bush Snr although they sure made Clinton look good.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Quite the contrary. The Fed will avoid moving right before
> an
> > > > election
> > > > > unless things are really bad. If the economy continues to
> > > sputter
> > > > along as
> > > > > it is doing now, there will be no change in rates.
> > > > >
> > > > > Kent
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 11:29 AM
> > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > With the Bush administration, ANYTHING GOES RIGHT NOW....
> > > > > WAIT.....Doesn't the FOMC meet BEFORE September 30th ?
> > > > > I think it's SEPTEMBER 24th.....just ONE WEEK
BEFORE.....HOW
> > > > CONVENIENT.
> > > > > Hmmmmm.......I wonder what will happen to S/T interest
rates
> > > > then ?? (duh !)
> > > > > "FOMC lowers Fed Funds by a record by 75 basis
> > points......stock
> > > > markets
> > > > > rise sharply.....mutual fund holders now happy
> campers......GOP
> > > > election
> > > > > chances now improved"
> > > > >
> > > > > BTW: I just love to shake you guys up...
> > > > >
> > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > From: Norman Winski [mailto:nwinski@x...]
> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:15 AM
> > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > M Simms,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Hey, maybe they have Arafat bidding up the market with
> his
> > > > secret
> > > > > > billionaire dollar account? And the Bush administration
is
> > bad
> > > > > > mouthing the
> > > > > > Saudis so no one will suspect they are trading for the
CIA?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Conspiringly,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Norman
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:00 AM
> > > > > > Subject: RE: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > NYSE volume of 1.5 billion today.....weak ?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Also, let's not forget the Sept 30th date in NEON LITES
> > > hanging
> > > > in the
> > > > > > white
> > > > > > > house......
> > > > > > > they gotta keep the market up till then.....or else
WHAM,
> > > > goodbye GOP in
> > > > > > > November.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > These fierce non-news-related afternoon rallies are
just
> so
> > > > > > suspicious.....I
> > > > > > > wonder if Bush has the CIA hitting the BUY order
buttons
> all
> > > > > > afternoon in
> > > > > > > the eminis.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > > From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@x...]
> > > > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 7:38 PM
> > > > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > > > Cc: MedianLine@xxxx
> > > > > > > > Subject: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I know general TA consensus says that we have broken
a
> > major
> > > > > > > > resistance and 947 or better is in sight tomorrow.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > This may be true but this rally could have also been
> > fueled
> > > > by the
> > > > > > > > absence of major bad news and CEOs signing on the
> dotted
> > > > line.Plus
> > > > > > > > coming off the heels of a major decline never hurts.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Tomorrow I believe that:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 1. UAL will announce Bankruptcy plans
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 2. Major CEOs of certain firms will not sign
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 3. Companies will announce a need to redo back years
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 4. While we passed the early Aug. high we are still
> below
> > > > July highs
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 5. The 200 day moving average is a long way off
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 6. 775.9 may have been the low for this cycle but
that
> > does
> > > > not mean
> > > > > > > > 880 will not be retested.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > We can move higher but I think we will end lower. It
> > would
> > > > not take
> > > > > > > > much to derail this uptrend which until now has been
> > fueled
> > > > by weak
> > > > > > > > volume.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > This one may have passed a "magic" number but that
does
> > not
> > > > mean that
> > > > > > > > it "is" the magic number to climb aboard.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Thoughts?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
4 DVDs Free +s&p Join Now
http://us.click.yahoo.com/pt6YBB/NXiEAA/RN.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|