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However ,, we must remember that when Dow is trading in October or
November under 6000 bonds WILL be at a 5 year high
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 5:52 PM
Subject: Re: [gannsghost] Re: Bonds
> Can't remember where I read it within the past week or so, but I did read
> something to effect that big spreads and flight to treasury generally
occurs
> just ahead of systemic financial crisis ala LTCM. To be clear, the combo
> does not mean this will occur, however financial crisis does not occur
> without this combination.
>
> IMO, they have papered over the problems at JPM, C, COF, et al however
those
> problems are not going away ... they never do and there is never a
financial
> crisis without the banks center stage. What the public just does not get
is
> that the Fed is the friend of banks and lenders, not Joe Blow. I perceive
> the financial pyramid as the major threat to the strong bear market rally
in
> equities.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 2:57 PM
> Subject: [gannsghost] Re: Bonds
>
>
> > Yes, there's a massive credit cruch and swap spreads are at record
> > levels.
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In gannsghost@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Sorry that was not clear, I think what he is saying is he feels
> > that bonds
> > > have not been believing this equity rally and that will change,
> > meaning go
> > > down or correct.
> > >
> > > What I am saying, is there something else "out there"?
> > > don ewers
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx>
> > > To: <gannsghost@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 3:24 PM
> > > Subject: [gannsghost] Re: Bonds
> > >
> > >
> > > > Wait a sec. You can't agree with both choices..
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >Does he mean bonds are going to tank becasue
> > > > > this rally is for real or bonds are going to rally because
> > they've
> > > > > been skeptical?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In gannsghost@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Bruce,
> > > > > I think that was is what he was inferring.
> > > > >
> > > > > I forgot to attach the charts I see.
> > > > > don ewers
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <gannsghost@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 2:54 PM
> > > > > Subject: [gannsghost] Re: Bonds
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > No question about the unwinding of curve steepers. This is
> > why
> > > > bonds
> > > > > > tend to sell off on rate cuts and rally after the Fed is
> > done. I
> > > > > > don't quite understand what exactly this person means by "
> > this is
> > > > > > all about to change". Does he mean bonds are going to tank
> > > > becasue
> > > > > > this rally is for real or bonds are going to rally because
> > they've
> > > > > > been skeptical?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In gannsghost@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > > Bruce,
> > > > > > > Funny you should bring up the fall of 1998, that is exactly
> > > > what I
> > > > > > was
> > > > > > > thinking. I agree on your point that bonds don't always
> > > > correlate
> > > > > > with an
> > > > > > > equity rise, but this smells of something else being up?
> > Only
> > > > > > numbers I
> > > > > > > have were 108-26 and then 109-02 both 1.27 expansions of
> > prior
> > > > > > swings and I
> > > > > > > don't recall if I had posted them. EW internal pattern
> > gives a
> > > > > > range of
> > > > > > > 109-04 to 110-20. Maybe it is just the rate cut but bonds
> > > > > > frequently veiw
> > > > > > > them as negative ultimately (future inflation). Another
> > member
> > > > of
> > > > > > this list
> > > > > > > feels it is the unwinding of the yield steepening curve
> > trade
> > > > and
> > > > > > that the
> > > > > > > bond market has been trained to be skeptical of any market
> > > > rally.
> > > > > > His words
> > > > > > > were "this is about to change".
> > > > > > > don ewers
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx>
> > > > > > > To: <gannsghost@xxxx>
> > > > > > > Sent: Friday, August 09, 2002 2:20 PM
> > > > > > > Subject: [gannsghost] Re: Bonds
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Yeah, wacky day in bondland today. Alot of people are
> > > > expecting a
> > > > > > > > rate cut next Tues and revised down retail sales
> > estimates.
> > > > > > Didn't
> > > > > > > > you post the 10826 level before?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 11/1/01 high = 11218 x32 = 3602 tics sqrt = 60.01
> > > > > > > > 59.01 squared = 3481/32 = 10825
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > TYX 11/01/01 low = 4.66...using 466 = 21.6
> > > > > > > > 22.6 squared = 511 = today's low yield
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > 10/8/98 - 1/18/00 = 321 tds x 1.414 = 454tds = 11/7/01
> > (highest
> > > > > > close)
> > > > > > > > x 1.414 = today. By the same token, 10/8/98 - 1/18/00 x
> > 2 =
> > > > > > 8/9/02
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > TYX low 11/1/01 +140cds = 3/21/01high +140cds = 8/9/02
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > My next bond CIT is 8/16-19. I can allow 10920 next
> > Friday
> > > > but
> > > > > > any
> > > > > > > > higher and it could go parabolic. I'm staring at this
> > chart
> > > > and
> > > > > > it
> > > > > > > > looks alot like late Sep 1998. The Fed did cut rates late
> > > > Sep 98
> > > > > > and
> > > > > > > > bonds did go parabolic rallying 7 pts in a week into
> > 10/5/98.
> > > > > > > > Ideally for me bonds should go down into 9/11. 8/2 was the
> > > > ideal
> > > > > > high
> > > > > > > > for me so need to be real careful. Remember bonds rallied
> > > > into
> > > > > > > > 11/8/01 when the SPX already was up at 1136 so you can't
> > > > always
> > > > > > use
> > > > > > > > the negative correlation. This strength only convinces me
> > > > further
> > > > > > > > that bonds will be ALOT higher next year.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > --- In gannsghost@xxxx, "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > > > > > > Bruce,
> > > > > > > > > Do we have Norm's 80% 109 trade possibly setting up
> > here?
> > > > > > Unusual
> > > > > > > > to see
> > > > > > > > > them this strong with SP's up 135H from their lows? Any
> > > > comments
> > > > > > > > Norm?
> > > > > > > > > don ewers
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
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