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<font
size=3 face=Arial>While we did
close right at the previously mentioned .382 Fibonacci retracement level of 902
the market made a new high for the move. This new high of 909.69 really
stretches the extreme of this point as a valid turning point level.
<font
size=3 face=Arial>
<font
size=3 face=Arial>If the
market does not turn lower from here my next target range for the termination
of this move will be 954-958. This corresponds to a Fibonacci 50% retracement
of the move from 4-17 down to 7-24.
<font
size=3 face=Arial>
<font
size=3 face=Arial>E
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent<span
style='font-weight:bold'>: <st1:date Month="7" Day="29"
Year="2002"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Tahoma'>Monday, July 29, 2002<font size=2
face=Tahoma> <st1:time
Hour="21" Minute="14"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma'>9:14 PM<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font
size=3 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:black'>The market blew through the 861 level and never looked
back. <span style='font-family:
Arial;color:black'>While Thursday's price action forced me to consider
the 862-869 price level, Wednesday's forecast has so far proven to have
been more correct
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>"My next targets for the end of this brief rally are:
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>First target 896-902 level which corresponds to a .382
retracement of the move down from the 5-17 high to today's low which
works out to be 902. If this target range is reached it will likely be done by
Friday or Monday."
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:black'>Today's close of 898.96 puts the market right in the
middle of this range. IMHO the odds a very high that this Fibonacci retracement
level will mark the peak of this brief rally.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman">E
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="28" Year="2002"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>Sunday, July 28, 2002<font
size=2 color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'> <font size=2
color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>8:17 PM<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font size=3 color=blue
face="Times New Roman">The critical
level for Monday is 861<span style='mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:black'> (A .382 retracement of the move from the 6-28 high to the
7-24 low). This is a
highly charged point in the current price structure. If the market moves
through this level tomorrow on strength, then it's clear sailing to at
least the 889 level (not necessarily tomorrow but within a couple of days).
However, if the market reaches 861 tomorrow, and is unable to punch through
this level we could see the beginning of a steep and rapid decline.
<font
size=2 color="#333300" face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font
size=2 color="#333300" face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="25" Year="2002"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>Thursday, July 25,
2002<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'> <st1:time
Hour="21" Minute="32"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>9:32 PM<font
size=2 color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>I
am concerned by the S&P's failure to close today above yesterdays
high. I was expecting a brief but powerful short term rally from the 780 level.
It started out that way yesterday, but today's lack of follow thru is
causing me to assess a lower target level for tomorrow which could terminate
this move.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>A
.618 retracement of the move from the 7-17 high to the 7-24 low would yield
869.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>A
.382 retracement of the move from the 6-28 high to the 7-24 low would yield 862.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>If
the market stalls in this range tomorrow 862-869 it could be the end to this
brief attempt at a rally. Ironically the market has a better chance of moving
through and exceeding this range if it fails to go that high tomorrow, and
closes in the upper third of it's trading range. Likewise if the market
can penetrate and close above this level then my previously posted higher
target levels are almost certain to be reached.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>E
<font
size=2 color=purple face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font
size=2 color=purple face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="24" Year="2002"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>Wednesday, July 24,
2002<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'> <st1:time
Hour="21" Minute="37"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>9:37 PM<font
size=2 color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>It appears that the 780 Fib. Level has held, and sparked the
beginning of a powerful, but likely short lived short covering rally. <span
class=EmailStyle30><span style='mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>The market made it's low at 775.75 just 4.25 points
below the 780 level and it was only below the 780 level for about 8 minutes.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>My next targets for the end of this brief rally are:
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>First target 896-902 level which corresponds to a .382
retracement of the move down from the 5-17 high to today's low which
works out to be 902. If this target range is reached it will likely be done by
Friday or Monday.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>My next and equally as likely to occur target is 889 if the
market fails to reach the previous targets by Monday then this becomes the most
likely target. I would look for this target to be hit on 7-31 or 8-1. This
price level corresponds to a 50% retracement of the move from the 6-28 high
down to today's low.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>E
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font size=3 color=blue
face="Times New Roman"><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> <font size=2
color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="23" Year="2002"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>Tuesday, July 23, 2002<font
size=2 color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'> <font size=2
color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>9:42 PM<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>So far
the market is holding up, that is to say it is not crashing. Right now the
market stands at the edge of the cliff right at the crossroads of a brief but
possibly strong rally, and slipping into panic selling crash mode.<font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>Tomorrow's
key levels are 791.55 and 780.<span
style='font-family:Arial'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>791.55 represents
a 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the move from the 5-17 high to the 6-14 low as
measured from the 7-8 high. I have previously posted the Fibonacci
relationships associated with the 780 level.<span
style='font-family:Arial'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>The
market could find support at either one of these two levels which could spark a
brief two to five day rally. If this rally does take place it will likely be
only an interruption to the current powerful down trend. If the 780 level fails
to hold support tomorrow there could be full scale panic selling.<font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>I do
not think that will be the case. First off my timing model is calling for a
short term bottom to be made tomorrow +or - 4 trading days. Secondly the 780
level appears to be a very strong support level, and finally it looks like we
are completing a short term corrective pattern on the hourly chart that often
precedes reversals.<span style='font-family:
Arial'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>E<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> <span
style='font-family:Arial'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman">
<font size=3 color=black
face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
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