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One might be
surprised at the bullish action today in the face of more bad economic
news.....
climbing the
"wall of worry ?" maybe...
but more
likely:
Terrified
"election year" republicans with their backs up against the wall have now taken
action to insure that by September 30th,
the stock market
will be stable and actually rising.
Why
?
QUARTER-ENDING
PENSION AND MUTUAL FUND STATEMENTS WILL REFLECT THE MARKET ON THAT
DATE.
Those will be the
last statements they will be seeing before casting their ballots in
November.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
WATCH OUT FOR
THOSE "MEN IN BLACK" in the S&P, Eurodollar, and Yen
pits....
do not put
anything past the Bush administration at this point....
they're in total
chaos.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid">
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, July 30, 2002 11:30
PMTo: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'Subject: RE: [RT]
Prognosticators Anomymous
<FONT face=Arial
size=3>While we did close
right at the previously mentioned .382 Fibonacci retracement level of 902 the
market made a new high for the move. This new high of 909.69 really stretches
the extreme of this point as a valid turning point
level.
<FONT face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<FONT face=Arial
size=3>If the market does
not turn lower from here my next target range for the termination of this move
will be 954-958. This corresponds to a Fibonacci 50% retracement of the move
from 4-17 down to 7-24.
<FONT face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<FONT face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">E
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original
Message-----From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx] <SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">: <st1:date Year="2002"
Day="29" Month="7"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">Monday, July 29,
2002<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"> <st1:time
Minute="14" Hour="21"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">9:14
PM<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<FONT
face=Arial color=black size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">The market
blew through the 861 level and never looked back. <FONT
face=Arial color=black>While
Thursday's price action forced me to consider the 862-869 price level,
Wednesday's forecast has so far proven to have been more
correct
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">"My next
targets for the end of this brief rally
are:
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">First target
896-902 level which corresponds to a .382 retracement of the move down from
the 5-17 high to today's low which works out to be 902. If this target range
is reached it will likely be done by Friday or
Monday."
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=black size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">Today's
close of 898.96 puts the market right in the middle of this range. IMHO the
odds a very high that this Fibonacci retracement level will mark the peak of
this brief rally.
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=black size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">E
<FONT face=Tahoma color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original
Message-----From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent: <st1:date Year="2002"
Day="28" Month="7"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">Sunday, July 28,
2002<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">
<FONT face=Tahoma color=black
size=2>8:17
PM<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3>The critical
level for Monday is 861<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"> (A .382 retracement of the
move from the 6-28 high to the 7-24 low)<SPAN
style="COLOR: blue">. This is a highly charged point in the current price
structure. If the market moves through this level tomorrow on strength, then
it's clear sailing to at least the 889 level (not necessarily tomorrow but
within a couple of days). However, if the market reaches 861 tomorrow, and is
unable to punch through this level we could see the beginning of a steep and
rapid decline.
<FONT
face=Arial color=#333300 size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=#333300 size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Tahoma color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original
Message-----From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent: <st1:date Year="2002"
Day="25" Month="7"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">Thursday, July 25,
2002<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">
<FONT face=Tahoma color=black
size=2>9:32
PM<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">I am
concerned by the S&P's failure to close today above yesterdays high. I was
expecting a brief but powerful short term rally from the 780 level. It started
out that way yesterday, but today's lack of follow thru is causing me to
assess a lower target level for tomorrow which could terminate this
move.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">A .618
retracement of the move from the 7-17 high to the 7-24 low would yield
869.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">A .382
retracement of the move from the 6-28 high to the 7-24 low would yield
862.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">If the
market stalls in this range tomorrow 862-869 it could be the end to this brief
attempt at a rally. Ironically the market has a better chance of moving
through and exceeding this range if it fails to go that high tomorrow, and
closes in the upper third of it's trading range. Likewise if the market can
penetrate and close above this level then my previously posted higher target
levels are almost certain to be reached.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">E
<FONT
face=Arial color=purple size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=purple size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Tahoma color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original
Message-----From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent: <st1:date Year="2002"
Day="24" Month="7"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">Wednesday, July 24,
2002<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">
<FONT face=Tahoma color=black
size=2>9:37
PM<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">It appears
that the 780 Fib. Level has held, and sparked the beginning of a powerful, but
likely short lived short covering rally. <SPAN
class=EmailStyle30><SPAN
style="COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">The market made it's low at
775.75 just 4.25 points below the 780 level and it was only below the 780
level for about 8 minutes.
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My next
targets for the end of this brief rally
are:
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">First target
896-902 level which corresponds to a .382 retracement of the move down from
the 5-17 high to today's low which works out to be 902. If this target range
is reached it will likely be done by Friday or
Monday.
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My next and
equally as likely to occur target is 889 if the market fails to reach the
previous targets by Monday then this becomes the most likely target. I would
look for this target to be hit on 7-31 or 8-1. This price level corresponds to
a 50% retracement of the move from the 6-28 high down to today's
low.
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: blue; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">E
<FONT
face=Arial color=blue size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=blue size=3><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"><FONT face=Tahoma
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original
Message-----From: Hill,
Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent: <st1:date Year="2002"
Day="23" Month="7"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">Tuesday, July 23,
2002<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">
<FONT face=Tahoma color=black
size=2>9:42
PM<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:
'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3>So far
the market is holding up, that is to say it is not crashing. Right now the
market stands at the edge of the cliff right at the crossroads of a brief but
possibly strong rally, and slipping into panic selling crash
mode.<SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
face=Arial>
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Tomorrow's key
levels are 791.55 and 780.<SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
face=Arial>
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3>791.55
represents a 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the move from the 5-17 high to the
6-14 low as measured from the 7-8 high. I have previously posted the Fibonacci
relationships associated with the 780 level.<FONT
face=Arial>
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
face=Arial>
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3>The
market could find support at either one of these two levels which could spark
a brief two to five day rally. If this rally does take place it will likely be
only an interruption to the current powerful down trend. If the 780 level
fails to hold support tomorrow there could be full scale panic
selling.<SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
face=Arial>
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3>I do
not think that will be the case. First off my timing model is calling for a
short term bottom to be made tomorrow +or - 4 trading days. Secondly the 780
level appears to be a very strong support level, and finally it looks like we
are completing a short term corrective pattern on the hourly chart that often
precedes reversals.<SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
face=Arial>
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3>E<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
face=Arial>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=black size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">
<FONT face="Courier New"
color=black size=3><SPAN
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