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<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>In my post made on 7-17 I said that the
bounce I was expecting had been made that day and that I expected the S&P
to drop to at least 865 by Monday. What I didn't say was that 845 was my next
target. I also posted on 7-13 that I expected a drop to the 759-782 level by
8-15 or 8-16.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Here is my rational for the 845 target
based on Fibonacci extensions of prior moves. I will in the future as my time
permits post other targets based on Fibonacci ratio analysis primarily for the
benefit of newer members who have been led to believe that Fibonacci ratio analysis
is not a useful tool. For those who are not familiar with Fibonacci ratios this
is the series of numbers used in ratio analysis .236, .382, .5, .618, 1.00,
1.236, 1.382, 1.618, & 2.618.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>If we measure from the high on 5-17 to the
low on 6-14 and multiply the points by 1.618 and then subtract this number from
the high on 6-18 we get <span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>838.74<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the
low on 7-3 and multiply the points by 1.382 and then subtract this number from
the high on 7-8 we get <span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>847.22<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>. We closed Friday at <font size=2 color=red
face=Arial>847.76<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the
low on 7-15 and multiply the points by .5 and then subtract this number from
the high on 7-17 we get <span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>844.44<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>. The low on Friday was <font size=2 color=red
face=Arial>842.14<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>This is an impressive cluster of Fibonacci
extensions all occurring very near where the market ended up on Friday. This
could be strong enough support to signal a turn in the market from here.
Generally this type of support would provide a spring board from which to move
up. However, my timing model suggests that we will continue to work lower to at
least 7-24. Also the slope of the decline has become much sharper suggesting to
me that we finally saw some fear in this market. I therefore, would not be
surprised to see the market move down sharply again on Monday. I also would not
be surprised to see a one or two day bounce from this level, and then a
continuation of the decline.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>As far as my forecast of 759-782 by 8-15
or 8-16 I stand by that forecast with one modification, due to the fear that I
see beginning to be manifest in the market I think this level could be seen by
an earlier date specifically 7-25 or 7-26. And the <font size=2
color=red face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:red'>780<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> level looks to be the
stronger candidate. Here is the case for 780.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>If we measure from the high on 3-19 to the
low on 5-7 and multiply the points by 2.618 and then subtract this number from
the high on 5-17 we get <span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>779.79<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>If we measure from the high on 6-18 to the
low on 7-3 and multiply the points by 1.382 and then subtract this number from
the high on 7-17 we get <span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>780.18<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>And if we measure from the high on 7-8 to
the low on 7-15 and multiply the points by 1.236 and then subtract this number
from the high on 7-17 we get <span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:red'>781.91<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:navy'>.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>This is a very tight cluster of Fibonacci
extensions and suggests that this could be the level where we can find an
intermediate term bottom. Not THE bottom, but a bottom that could spark a very
strong bear market rally.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> I also see 807 as a target from which a
two to three day rally could occur if this target is hit on 7-25 or 7-26, and
then turn lower into the 8-15 time frame.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>In conclusion Friday could have been the
intermediate term bottom at 842.14, but my stuff suggests that the odds are in
favor of at least one more swift drop to at least the
780 level before the intermediate term bottom is in.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>E
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="17" Year="2002"><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>Wednesday, July 17, 2002<font
size=2 face=Tahoma> <st1:time
Hour="20" Minute="18"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma'>8:18 PM<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Time for an update of my
prognosis. The market certainly fooled me by the huge drop on Monday. The
bounce that I was expecting I believe was completed today, and of course the
bounce came from the 7-15 low and not the 7-11 low like I had expected. This
bounce terminated today at 926.55, which is almost an exact 50% retracement of
the move down from the close on 7-8 to the low on 7-15.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Now I know some of the
Fib critics will say that I am reaching by claiming this is a Fib retracement,
but this is were my analysis leads me. I am expecting a drop to at least 865 by
Monday, which represents a .618 extension of the move from the close on 7-8 to
the low on 7-15, as measured from today's high of 926.55.
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>E
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="13" Year="2002"><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>Saturday, July 13, 2002<font
size=2 face=Tahoma> <st1:time
Hour="21" Minute="7"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma'>9:07 PM<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>After doing a little more work this weekend I now think that
a 50% retracement of the move from 7-8 to 7-11 is an equally valid target for
the short term bounce that I am expecting so my targets now are 947 or the
964-968 range. I then expect a drop to the 759-782 range by 8-15.
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>E
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
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