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<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Time for an update of my
prognosis.<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'> The market certainly
fooled me by the huge drop on Monday. The bounce that I was expecting I believe
was completed today, and of course the bounce came from the 7-15 low and not
the 7-11 low like I had expected. This bounce terminated today at 926.55, which
is almost an exact 50% retracement of the move down from the close on 7-8 to
the low on 7-15.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Now I know some of the Fib critics will
say that I am reaching by claiming this is a Fib retracement, but this is were
my analysis leads me. I am expecting a drop to at least 865 by Monday, which
represents a .618 extension of the move from the close on 7-8 to the low on
7-15, as measured from today's high of 926.55.
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>E
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 9:07
PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>After doing a little more work this weekend I now think that
a 50% retracement of the move from 7-8 to 7-11 is an equally valid target for
the short term bounce that I am expecting so my targets now are 947 or the
964-968 range. I then expect a drop to the 759-782 range by 8-15.
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>E
<font
size=2 color=olive face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 8:37
PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>In light of today's price action I would like to
modify my previous forecast. I am now expecting a short term top on 7-15 or
7-16 in the price range of 964-968. From there I expect the market to return to
its precipitous decline.
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>E
<font
size=2 color="#993366" face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002
8:28 PM
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>Ok John I'll bite. Using my own proprietary methodology I am
expecting a two to three day rebound with a target range of<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 983-985.
<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>E
<font
size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: John Cappello
[mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002
6:17 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";
mso-fareast-font-family:"Courier New";color:black'>
After observing the down trend over the last 3 and
1/2 months, I
noted that the day after each new yearly S&P
low there occurred a
spike the next day that recaptured [at least for a
time] a major part
of the drop. Based upon this limited
"study" I am looking for the
same bounce tomorrow.I already made my long
committment.
I would be interested in the forecast by Sailors,
fibers, pivoters ,
S&R er's, pitchforkers, Hurst-Fouriers and
whoever else would like to
have fun and participate in this guesstimate of
what will happen
tomorrow.
Hope some of you can find the time to participate.
Sincerely,
John
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