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Re: [RT] Gap behavior



PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

> Anyway, Crabel has reported some really ugly performance numbers 
for the past 6 quarters.... just thought I'd throw that in.

See for yourself folks. Six years available. Look under CTAs:

http://www.autumngold.com/

No connection to Crabel or the above site.

BW




--- In realtraders@xxxx, "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx> wrote:
> Very simplistic.....not really gap-based:
> after "x" minutes from the session start, if range is significant, 
go
> long/short based on the direction/slope for those x minutes...
> there were some filters as well....I'll have to dig-out the 
specifics.
> 
> Anyway, Crabel has reported some really ugly performance numbers 
for the
> past 6 quarters....
> just thought I'd throw that in.
> 
> 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: tradewynne [mailto:tradewynne@x...]
> > Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 9:36 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Gap behavior
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx> wrote:
> > > This would explain why Toby Crabel's "opening range breakout"
> > system.... never worked.
> >
> > It worked today, and just the way Clyde research
> > suggested it should, and either way you want to
> > slice up the "ORB."
> >
> > RTH ORB breakout to the downside after up-gap.
> >
> > 24hr ORB breakout was to the upside after a small down-gap.
> >
> > I'm not aware that Crabel had an ORB-Gap system Mark. Could
> > you fill me in? I'm aware of his research on various patterns
> > and his conclusions about NR7s, etc....
> >
> > Thanks,
> >
> > BW
> >
> > >
> > >   -----Original Message-----
> > >   From: Clyde Lee [mailto:clydelee@x...]
> > >   Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 1:59 PM
> > >   To: Realtraders@xxxx
> > >   Cc: MedianLine@xxxx
> > >   Subject: [RT] Gap behavior
> > >
> > >
> > >   With the big gap this morning I decided to look at the 
behavior
> > >   of prices (on a daily basis) after gaps.
> > >
> > >   I used the SP cash index from 1942 until now.  That was the
> > >   earliest that I had data with O/h/l/c data.
> > >
> > >   There were a total of 619 gaps over this period (only about 7
> > >   per year on average)
> > >
> > >   I looked to see, for down gaps where the low price was for the
> > >   gap day and 3 days after the gap relative to the opening price
> > >   on the gap day.
> > >
> > >   I looked to see, for up gaps where the high price was for the
> > >   gap day and 3 days after the gap relative to the opening price
> > >   on the gap day.
> > >
> > >   Looking at the averages however, it would appear that for a
> > >   quick buck the best trade is in the opposite direction of the
> > >   gap!!!!!  On average just over 1% of price.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >   Averages on Gaps for SP Cash 1942-2002
> > >
> > >   Direction  Number  Gap%  H0%   L0%   H1%   L1%   H2%   L2%
> > H3%   L3%
> > >   Up Gap      229   -0.28  0.84  -1.11 0.65  -1.14 0.67  -1.08
> > 0.69  -1.05
> > >   Down Gap    390    0.17  0.89  -0.60 1.06  -0.33 1.07  -0.38
> > 1.07  -0.37
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >   Counts on Gaps for SP Cash 1942-2002
> > >
> > >   Down Gap=Gap open to low  of given day
> > >   Up Gap  =Gap open to high of given day
> > >
> > >     Gap Day     Gap Day+1     Gap Day+2     Gap Day+3
> > >      <o  >o      <o  >o        <o  >o        <o   >o
> > >    -211   0    -188   41      -169  60      -159   69
> > >       0 379     -72  318       -89 301      -105  285
> > >
> > >   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - -
> > >   Clyde Lee   Chairman/CEO          (Home of SwingMachine)
> > >   SYTECH Corporation          email: clydelee@xxxx
> > >   7910 Westglen, Suite 105       Office:    (713) 783-9540
> > >   Houston,  TX  77063               Fax:    (713) 783-1092
> > >   Details at:                      www.theswingmachine.com
> > >   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - - -
> > >
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