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Good research Clyde But it simply tells us what we learned from
Larry Williams
8 years ago. Thats the basis of his OOPS! Even LBR took it up in
her book with Connors Street Smarts.
Warmest
Regards
David
Hunt________________________________
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href="http://www.adest.com.au";>www.adest.com.au
Phone:
Australia: (02) 9527
4690
Int: +
61 2 9527 4690
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USA : + 1 312 577
0491________________________________
-------Original Message-------
Message: 7Date: Wed, 17 Jul
2002 12:58:58 -0500From: Clyde Lee <<A
title=mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";><FONT
color=#0000ff>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>Subject: Gap
behaviorWith the big gap this morning I decided to look at the
behaviorof prices (on a daily basis) after gaps.I used the SP
cash index from 1942 until now. That was theearliest that I had data
with O/h/l/c data.There were a total of 619 gaps over this period
(only about 7 per year on average)I looked to see, for down
gaps where the low price was for thegap day and 3 days after the gap
relative to the opening priceon the gap day.I looked to see,
for up gaps where the high price was for thegap day and 3 days after
the gap relative to the opening priceon the gap day. Looking
at the averages however, it would appear that for aquick buck the best
trade is in the opposite direction of thegap!!!!! On average just over
1% of price.Averages on Gaps for SP Cash 1942-2002
Direction Number Gap% H0% L0% H1% L1% H2% L2% H3% L3% Up Gap
229 -0.28 0.84 -1.11 0.65 -1.14 0.67 -1.08 0.69 -1.05 Down Gap 390
0.17 0.89 -0.60 1.06 -0.33 1.07 -0.38 1.07 -0.37 Counts on
Gaps for SP Cash 1942-2002 Down Gap=Gap open to low of given
dayUp Gap =Gap open to high of given dayGap Day Gap Day+1 Gap
Day+2 Gap Day+3 <o >o <o >o <o >o <o
>o-211 0 -188 41 -169 60 -159 690 379 -72 318 -89 301 -105
285NY to 894.75 very close to the .618 at 893.75, then rallied
sharply.It that "you folks" making this happen :-)? We need our
sleep here so notthis side of the pond.don ewers-----
Original Message -----From: "Adrian Pitt" <<A
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent:
Wednesday, July 17, 2002 4:56 AMSubject: RE: [RT] Re:
Fibs> Don,>> Its obvious to me...and not
surprisingly, but you CAN'T change the minds> Of people who don't
wish to change i.e. people who aren't open minded.> Many people on
here...just like in real life, are merely here to push>
their> Views and denigrate others rather than learn. The genuine
learners are> only> A tiny% on this list. Most everyone else
simply wants the free lunch.>> I suggest continuing the Fibo
discussion is pointless as it won't> EDUCATE the> people who
need educating. We both know as traders and market analysts> at
the> Coal face that we see it time and time again. We also know its
just one> tool.> We also know it can provide the key to
putting on a more successful> trade.> These are all
FACTS....by people who TRADE and MAKE MONEY.>> I suggest to
you and everyone else...ISN'T THAT THE POINT OF BEING ON> THIS LIST
?????>> Adrian>> > -----Original
Message-----> > From: Don Ewers [<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]>
> Sent: Wednesday, 17 July 2002 12:15 PM> > To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: [RT] Re: Fibs> >> >> > I have
repeated numerous times, Clyde's analysis proves> > nothing (
flawed) since it does not register pivots that fall> > in the
"right" levels to measure the real fib extensions or> >
retracements (it measures all pivots, thus the flat line),> >
what else would one expect from such an analysis? This was> >
challenged a while back and numerous members stand by it move> >
on, let it go, . . . . don ewers> >> > ----- Original
Message -----> > From: "Kent Rollins" <<A
href="mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 8:39 PM> > Subject: [RT]
Re:> >> >> > > There is a saying: "The
plural of 'anecdotes' is not 'data'." Just> > because>
> > you can find a few instances on a chart proves you are handy
with> > > charts.> > >> > > Clyde
did a data-packed study of retracements and posted> > the
results> > > in a very clear and incontrovertible chart which
had the length of> > > retracements on 1 axis and the
frequency of occurances on> > the other.> > > There
was NO blip at the magical Fibonacci numbers. None.> > The
data> > > line was perfectly> > smooth> >
> from one side of the chart to the other with no clump at any
point.> > >> > > Fib retracements are a prism
thru which to view the> > strength of market> > >
moves. Fib numbers have no statistical basis in fact. You> >
could just> > > as easily use sixths, eights, tenths, or any
other> > fraction. And for> > > every chart you
post should a perfect Fib retracement, I could post> > > one
that> > shows> > > a perfect retracement based on
PI, e, or any other rational number.> > >> > >
Kent> > >> > >> > > ----- Original
Message -----> > > From: "Don Ewers" <<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 3:35 PM> > >>
> >> > > Clyde,> > > It is not a very few
examples, as you have "continued to state".> > >> >
> Your posisition seems to be, if you can't "program it", it does
not> > > exist?> > >> > > I say,
every day, in every time frame, I use it constantly, almost> >
> more> > than> > > any other tool. What you
call " isolated" occurs all the> > time, and it> >
> is "not isolated"?> > >> > > Here are a
couple of other weekly "fib things" that as you> > would
say,> > > do> > not> > > exist that I
recently supplied to one who inquired about> >
retracements.> > > First two look pretty good to me (blue 50%
and the red .618) of the> > > prior moves down so far. Would
they show up on what you> > have tried to> > >
program?> > >> > > Keep fighting this, but you
are losing the battle from what I> > > normally trade, as it
would appear may others. don ewers> > >> > >
----- Original Message -----> > > From: "Clyde Lee" <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>> >
> To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 11:22 AM> > > Subject:
Re: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching> > >
doesn't> > >> > >> > > > What I
believe in and what I publish may be two entirely> >
different> > > > things. You have never seen a published
study by me that> > indicated> > > > that Gann
Angle projection of time or price reversal> > points had
any> > > > more significance than a random choice of
points.> > > >> > > > My publication of
Gann Angle points was just an> > observation and not>
> > > an analysis.> > > >> > > >
Why it is that you insist on selecting A VERY FEW examples of FIB>
> > > relationships that seem to work a proof that such is
the> > case I do> > > > not understand.>
> > >> > > > I understand that many people use
FIB relationships in> > discretionary> > > >
trading as a guide to where price reversals might occur> > but I
have> > > > yet to see anyone publish a trading system
based on the> > FIB ratios> > > > that was
successful. And, in view of the statistical> > data which
has> > > > been accumulated it is highly unlikely that it
will.> > > >> > > > My whole purpose of
this insistence of looking at the> > statistics of> >
> > Fib ratios is to try to prevent some of our newer and
less> > > > experienced colleagues from jumping off onto a
train that> > is headed> > > > for hell.>
> > >> > > > Clyde> > > >>
> > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-> > > > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)> > > > SYTECH Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx> >
> > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540> >
> > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092> > > >
Details at: <A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com>
> > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-> > > >> > > > ----- Original Message
-----> > > > From: "Adrian Pitt" <<A
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> >
> > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 6:48 AM> > > >
Subject: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching> >
> > doesn't> > > >> > > >>
> > > >> > > > > Clyde and all those
interested,> > > > >> > > > > Have a
look at the enclosed graph. It shows very> > clearly a
perfect> > > > > example Of the implementation of
Fibonacci ratio's at work, and> > > > > why Clyde's
number crunching statistical tour de force shows up> > > >
> nothing. This graph is a daily Bar chart of the Dow, looking
at> > > > > the major high and the corrective rally we
have had this year.> > > > > Notice that the corrective
rally finished in a classic Neely> > > > > Triangle, as
so many multi-wave corrective structures do. Also> > > >
> notice That at that exact moment we completed the 'e'> >
wave of the> > > > > triangle was also the EXACT 61.8%
retracement of the> > major decline> > > > >
so far. Also note, that with almost Any swing> > methodology
applied> > > > > to this market would never have caught
this. If You go> > to a weekly> > > > > or
monthly chart that termination point vanishes and so> > does
The> > > > > 61.8% retracement, thereby seemingly
proving Clyde's assertion.> > > > > Clyde, You do some
great work, but it seems there are 2> > anomalies> >
> > > here..the first is You seem to believe in Gann angles but
not> > > > > Fibonacci? That's is an unusual
Combination to the say> > the least.> > > > >
Secondly, don't let yourself fall into the camp University> >
> > > academics have for the past decades of trying to prove
markets> > > > > were Random and technical analysis had
no validity by> > conducting> > > > >
spurious> > and> > > > > erroneous Test.
Doing a number crunching test...no matter how> > > > >
detailed and intensive does NOT Prove something doesn't work> >
> > > simply because> > your> > > >
> test didn't show it.> > > > > This is why I sent
this simple little graph. The combination of> > Elliott>
> > > > and Fibo working a treat. These aren't isolated
examples, and> > > > > there is no one on the planet
who could ever suggest we> > stopped at> > > >
> that point because> > "everyone> > > > >
looks at charts..so they were watching the 61.8% level".> > >
> >> > > > > Adrian Pitt> > > >
>> > > > >> > > > > To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:> > > > >
<A
href="mailto:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >> > > > >> > > >
>> > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject
to> > > <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> > > >> > > > >> > >
>> > > >> > > >> > >
>> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:> > > > <A
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> > >> > > >> > > >> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to> > <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
> > >> > > >> > >> >
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6/5/02________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
4Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 10:57:59 -0500From: Clyde Lee <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching - change
directionsUnderstand, this is not about FIBS, this is about
PIVOTS.You have contended over and over that because the pivots
thatare picked by a stringent mathematical definition do not fit
whatyou see as pivots that the study is faulty.You (and I
guess most of the readers on this and several otherlists) know that I
am dedicated to the pivot determinationMETHOD that I have developed. I
am not tied to any particularlength for the pivot but at the present
time when an analysis isdone then the number of bars used to evaluate
when a pivotoccurs is fixed. It may be that that condition needs to be
tiedsome way to market activity, I just do not know.What I
want you to do is define for me the characteristics thatyou use in
defining what constitutes a pivot that you woulduse.I don't
care how complicated or simple these characteristicsare, whatever they
are I would like to program them in a pivotfinding algorithm that
could be of value to the entire tradingcommunity.In attempting
something of this order I can assure you thatthe initial statement of
the method will not contain all the elementsthat you use and that it
will take a number of iterations to achievethe equivalent of what you
establish for pivots by looking ata chart.On all of these
studies that we have disagreed over youhave had the benefit of
hindsight in selecting the pivots thatyou thought were appropriate for
measurement where theevaluation covered more than one pivot.My
pivot selection method has NO insight into what mayhappen forward of
the day/bar on which an evaluation isperformed and consequently cannot
identify a pivot untilsome period of time (variable) following the
actual event thatis the pivot.We all know that we must have
some information forwardof the pivot to be able to identify that
pivot. I know thatis a matter of fact and accept the "lag" inherent in
thedetermination of pivots.I'm willing to put whatever time is
needed into such a projectsince I think it will give me and many
others a better understandingof why a "simple" method of picking
pivots is invalid.Clyde- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx7910
Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713)
783-1092Details at: <A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ------ Original
Message -----From: "Don Ewers" <<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent:
Wednesday, July 17, 2002 9:54 AMSubject: Re: [RT] Why Fibonacci
Numbers work and Number crunching doesn't> Clyde,>
Yes your use of a 21-bar, has mirrored the pivots off the top I
thatshowed> in my gif, however in looking at your pivot
selection going backwards from> there some questions arrise that I
believe causes your "study" of fib's in> this case, to be
flawed.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
5Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 13:36:02 -0400 (EDT)From: John Nelson
<<A
href="mailto:trader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>trader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
Re: Re: FibsI've heard these sort of CIA led conspiracy
theories for years as well.One might as easily blame Bill Gates
for the 9/11 bombings as a ploy to divert attention away from the
anti-trust trial and towards the war on terrorism. After all, with 260
billion dollars in revenue and a personal fortune of 63 billion
dollars, Mr. Gates and Microsoft stand to loose a lot if their empire
is felled.Clearly a goofy scenario, as is a CIA
conspiracy.-- JohnOn Wed, 17 Jul 2002 <A
href="mailto:donali33@xxxxxxx";>donali33@xxxxxxx wrote:>
Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 07:14:15 EDT> From: <A
href="mailto:donali33@xxxxxxx";>donali33@xxxxxxx> Reply-To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Fibs> > Adrian,> > I
have some friends who live in the middle east and right after 9-11 they
ALL > told me that Bin Laden was not responsible for the bombings.
I asked them, if > not him, then who is? Their universal response
was the CIA. They believe that > the CIA did the bombings in order
to be able to blame Bin Laden so the U.S. > would have a reason to
go attack him and start a war. They honestly believe > that. I told
them that I and all Americans would be very interested in seeing >
PROOF that the CIA was responsible. I have yet to see any from any of
them. > Do you think my request for proof was unreasonable?>
> In my post I said: > > I have yet to see one using
fibs either, I am not saying it doesn't exist, > but I'd sure like
to just to put this "Fib" subject to rest.> > If anybody
responds in defense of Fibs as a truly valid trading system please
> also include the following as PROOF: Documented, real-time
profits using > PRECISE NON-SUBJECTIVE RULES which can be
authenticated.> > I personally don't see why asking for
proof in regard to Fibs is an > unreasonable request either.
> > How about this? Forget the brokerage statements and just
tell us of any > successful system or method that uses Fibs
exclusively for it's signals that > we can verify. Is that honestly
too much to ask?> > -David Carrington>
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
6Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 13:37:38 -0400From: Daniel Goncharoff
<<A
href="mailto:thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx";>thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
FibsArticle about CSFB using Fibs<A
href="http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/sm/20020716/bs_sm/artificial_intelligence";>http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/sm/20020716/bs_sm/artificial_intelligence________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
7Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 12:58:58 -0500From: Clyde Lee <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
Gap behaviorWith the big gap this morning I decided to look at the
behaviorof prices (on a daily basis) after gaps.I used the SP
cash index from 1942 until now. That was theearliest that I had data
with O/h/l/c data.There were a total of 619 gaps over this period
(only about 7 per year on average)I looked to see, for down
gaps where the low price was for thegap day and 3 days after the gap
relative to the opening priceon the gap day.I looked to see,
for up gaps where the high price was for thegap day and 3 days after
the gap relative to the opening priceon the gap day. Looking
at the averages however, it would appear that for aquick buck the best
trade is in the opposite direction of thegap!!!!! On average just over
1% of price.Averages on Gaps for SP Cash 1942-2002
Direction Number Gap% H0% L0% H1% L1% H2% L2% H3% L3% Up Gap
229 -0.28 0.84 -1.11 0.65 -1.14 0.67 -1.08 0.69 -1.05 Down Gap 390
0.17 0.89 -0.60 1.06 -0.33 1.07 -0.38 1.07 -0.37 Counts on
Gaps for SP Cash 1942-2002 Down Gap=Gap open to low of given
dayUp Gap =Gap open to high of given dayGap Day Gap Day+1 Gap
Day+2 Gap Day+3 <o >o <o >o <o >o <o
>o-211 0 -188 41 -169 60 -159 690 379 -72 318 -89 301 -105
285- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)SYTECH Corporation
email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX 77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details at: <A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -[This
message contained
attachments]________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
8Date: Thu, 18 Jul 2002 06:55:11 +1000From: "Adrian Pitt" <<A
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
RE: Re:<A
href="http://www.elliottwaveresearch.com/";>http://www.elliottwaveresearch.com/Just
click on the news box upper left. I don't endorse or use theprogram,
but theResearch is very interesting.Adrian>
-----Original Message-----> From: Kent Rollins [<A
href="mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Thursday, 18 July 2002 12:40 AM> To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] Re:> > > I either missed the URL
you posted or forgot what was there. > How about reposting
it.> > Kent> > > ----- Original Message
-----> From: "Adrian Pitt" <<A
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 5:50 AM> Subject: RE: [RT]
Re:> > > Kent,> > Some people simply
don't wish to believe no matter how much > FACT is presented To
them. You fall into this camp..and its > your choice to close your
mind. You need to read some of my > others posts. Did you ever look
at the URL I Sent out to the > EWA3 site? I would bet not. But then
again you don't wish > your Belief system tampered with by factual
research. > Research far more comprehensive Than Clyde's (not
denigrating > your work Clyde *s*) and far more pertinent because
It > analysed the Fib work in relation to strict mathematical wave
> counts. It showed Conclusive PROOF. But hey....Don and I are
> happy to be sellers where you will be A buyer and make a bank
> account transfer :-)> > Let it be also said of
course, that to trade profitably you > don't need to use or even
Know about Fibo numbers. They are > just another in a long line of
interesting tools.> > Adrian> > >
> > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor >
---------------------~--> Save on REALTOR Fees > <A
href="http://us.click.yahoo.com/Xw80LD/h1ZEAA/Ey.GAA";>http://us.click.yahoo.com/Xw80LD/h1ZEAA/Ey.GAA>
/zMEolB/TM> > >
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-------~->> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an
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> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
9Date: Thu, 18 Jul 2002 06:58:43 +1000From: "Adrian Pitt" <<A
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
RE: Re: FibsDon,I'm not involved in the US markets from a
trading point of view. Adrian> -----Original
Message-----> From: Don Ewers [<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Thursday, 18 July 2002 1:00 AM> To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Fibs> > > Adrian,>
Curious about something, do you trade "our" night session > over
there (Australia)? The reason I ask is I see it as > frequently
being very "technical".> > By the way although many would
not consider 50% a fib (actual > is .48 I believe), last night was
a good example of what I > frequently see. There were some "nice"
ones.> > Starting from when London roughly opened (when the
"real" > action normally> begins):> 2:33 NY ES made a
low @893.75, 3:03 NY rallied to 904, then
> 3:19 NY did a 50% pullback to 898.75 (well 50% was 898.875,
> close enough).> > 3:19 NY ES low <A
href="mailto:@898.75,";>@898.75, 4:08 NY rallied to 912.25, then 5:04
> NY did a 50% pullback to 905.50 (to the tic there).>
> 5:04 NY ES low @905.50, 7:13 NY
rallied to 915.50,> then 7:20 NY did a 50% pullback to 910.75 (50%
was 910.50, > missed by a tic).> > Three for three in
an orderly fashion.> > Lets try another night:> The
rally Monday from 875 to 924 in the night session, then > retraced
at 5:05 NY to 894.75 very close to the .618 at > 893.75, then
rallied sharply.> > It that "you folks" making this happen
:-)? We need our sleep > here so not this side of the pond. don
ewers> > > ----- Original Message -----> From:
"Adrian Pitt" <<A
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 4:56 AM> Subject: RE: [RT] Re:
Fibs> > > > Don,> >> > Its
obvious to me...and not surprisingly, but you CAN'T change the >
> minds Of people who don't wish to change i.e. people who >
aren't open > > minded. Many people on here...just like in real
life, are > merely here > > to push their Views and
denigrate others rather than learn. The > > genuine learners are
only> > A tiny% on this list. Most everyone else simply wants
the > free lunch.> >> > I suggest continuing
the Fibo discussion is pointless as it won't > > EDUCATE the
people who need educating. We both know as traders and > >
market analysts at the> > Coal face that we see it time and time
again. We also know > its just one> > tool.> >
We also know it can provide the key to putting on a more
successful> > trade.> > These are all FACTS....by
people who TRADE and MAKE MONEY.> >> > I suggest to
you and everyone else...ISN'T THAT THE POINT > OF BEING ON >
> THIS LIST ?????> >> > Adrian> >>
> > -----Original Message-----> > > From: Don Ewers [<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]>
> > Sent: Wednesday, 17 July 2002 12:15 PM> > > To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: [RT] Re: Fibs> > >> >
>> > > I have repeated numerous times, Clyde's analysis
proves nothing ( > > > flawed) since it does not register
pivots that fall in > the "right" > > > levels to
measure the real fib extensions or retracements (it > > >
measures all pivots, thus the flat line), what else would > one
expect > > > from such an analysis? This was challenged a
while back and > > > numerous members stand by it move on,
let it go, . . . . don ewers> > >> > > -----
Original Message -----> > > From: "Kent Rollins" <<A
href="mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 8:39 PM> > > Subject:
[RT] Re:> > >> > >> > > > There
is a saying: "The plural of 'anecdotes' is not 'data'." > > >
> Just> > > because> > > > you can find a
few instances on a chart proves you are > handy with > >
> > charts.> > > >> > > > Clyde did
a data-packed study of retracements and posted> > > the
results> > > > in a very clear and incontrovertible chart
which had > the length of > > > > retracements on 1
axis and the frequency of occurances on> > > the
other.> > > > There was NO blip at the magical Fibonacci
numbers. None.> > > The data> > > > line was
perfectly> > > smooth> > > > from one side of
the chart to the other with no clump at any > > > >
point.> > > >> > > > Fib retracements are
a prism thru which to view the> > > strength of
market> > > > moves. Fib numbers have no statistical basis
in fact. You> > > could just> > > > as easily
use sixths, eights, tenths, or any other> > > fraction. And
for> > > > every chart you post should a perfect Fib
retracement, I could > > > > post one that> >
> shows> > > > a perfect retracement based on PI, e, or
any other rational > > > > number.> > >
>> > > > Kent> > > >> > >
>> > > > ----- Original Message -----> > >
> From: "Don Ewers" <<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 3:35 PM> > >
>> > > >> > > > Clyde,> >
> > It is not a very few examples, as you have "continued to
state".> > > >> > > > Your posisition
seems to be, if you can't "program it", it does > > > >
not exist?> > > >> > > > I say, every day,
in every time frame, I use it > constantly, almost > >
> > more> > > than> > > > any other
tool. What you call " isolated" occurs all the> > > time, and
it> > > > is "not isolated"?> > >
>> > > > Here are a couple of other weekly "fib things"
that as you> > > would say,> > > > do>
> > not> > > > exist that I recently supplied to one
who inquired about> > > retracements.> > > >
First two look pretty good to me (blue 50% and the red .618) of >
> > > the prior moves down so far. Would they show up on what
you> > > have tried to> > > >
program?> > > >> > > > Keep fighting this,
but you are losing the battle from what I > > > > normally
trade, as it would appear may others. don ewers> > >
>> > > > ----- Original Message -----> > >
> From: "Clyde Lee" <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>> >
> > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 11:22 AM> > >
> Subject: Re: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number >
crunching > > > > doesn't> > > >>
> > >> > > > > What I believe in and what I
publish may be two entirely> > > different> > >
> > things. You have never seen a published study by me that>
> > indicated> > > > > that Gann Angle projection
of time or price reversal> > > points had any> >
> > > more significance than a random choice of points.>
> > > >> > > > > My publication of Gann
Angle points was just an> > > observation and not>
> > > > an analysis.> > > > >> >
> > > Why it is that you insist on selecting A VERY FEW examples
of > > > > > FIB relationships that seem to work a
proof that such is the> > > case I do> > > >
> not understand.> > > > >> > > >
> I understand that many people use FIB relationships in> >
> discretionary> > > > > trading as a guide to where
price reversals might occur> > > but I have> > >
> > yet to see anyone publish a trading system based on the>
> > FIB ratios> > > > > that was successful. And,
in view of the statistical> > > data which has> >
> > > been accumulated it is highly unlikely that it
will.> > > > >> > > > > My whole
purpose of this insistence of looking at the> > > statistics
of> > > > > Fib ratios is to try to prevent some of our
newer and less > > > > > experienced colleagues from
jumping off onto a train that> > > is headed> >
> > > for hell.> > > > >> > >
> > Clyde> > > > >> > > > > -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -> > >
> > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)> > >
> > SYTECH Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx> >
> > > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540>
> > > > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092> >
> > > Details at: <A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com>
> > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-> > > > >> > > > > ----- Original
Message -----> > > > > From: "Adrian Pitt" <<A
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>> >
> > > To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 6:48 AM> > >
> > Subject: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching
> > > > > doesn't> > > > >>
> > > >> > > > > >> > >
> > > Clyde and all those interested,> > > > >
>> > > > > > Have a look at the enclosed graph.
It shows very> > > clearly a perfect> > > >
> > example Of the implementation of Fibonacci ratio's at work,
> > > > > > and why Clyde's number crunching
statistical tour de force > > > > > > shows up
nothing. This graph is a daily Bar chart > of the Dow, >
> > > > > looking at the major high and the corrective
rally > we have had > > > > > > this year.
Notice that the corrective rally finished in a > > > >
> > classic Neely Triangle, as so many multi-wave corrective
> > > > > > structures do. Also notice That at that
exact moment we > > > > > > completed the
'e'> > > wave of the> > > > > >
triangle was also the EXACT 61.8% retracement of the> > >
major decline> > > > > > so far. Also note, that
with almost Any swing> > > methodology applied> >
> > > > to this market would never have caught this. If You
go> > > to a weekly> > > > > > or
monthly chart that termination point vanishes and so> > >
does The> > > > > > 61.8% retracement, thereby
seemingly proving Clyde's > > > > > > assertion.
Clyde, You do some great work, but it > seems there > >
> > > > are 2> > > anomalies> > >
> > > here..the first is You seem to believe in Gann >
angles but not > > > > > > Fibonacci? That's is an
unusual Combination to the say> > > the least.> >
> > > > Secondly, don't let yourself fall into the camp
University > > > > > > academics have for the past
decades of trying to > prove markets > > > > >
> were Random and technical analysis had no validity by> >
> conducting> > > > > > spurious> >
> and> > > > > > erroneous Test. Doing a number
crunching test...no > matter how > > > > > >
detailed and intensive does NOT Prove something > doesn't work
> > > > > > simply because> > >
your> > > > > > test didn't show it.> >
> > > > This is why I sent this simple little graph. The
> combination > > > > > > of> >
> Elliott> > > > > > and Fibo working a treat.
These aren't isolated > examples, and > > > > >
> there is no one on the planet who could ever suggest we> >
> stopped at> > > > > > that point
because> > > "everyone> > > > > > looks
at charts..so they were watching the 61.8% level".> > > >
> >> > > > > > Adrian Pitt> > >
> > >> > > > > >> > > >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: > >
> > > > <A
href="mailto:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > >> > > > > >> >
> > > >> > > > > > Your use of Yahoo!
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href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>
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> > >> > > > >> > > >
>> > > > >> > > > > To
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________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
10Date: Thu, 18 Jul 2002 07:03:39 +1000From: "Adrian Pitt" <<A
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
RE: Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching - change
directionsClyde,I have the definitive answer for you if
you truly wish to discover whichPivots to use. Here's your
answer:ALWAYS USE THE PATTERN TERMINATION POINT.How do we
find the pattern termination point? BUY GLEN NEELY's "MASTERING
ELLIOTT WAVE" and spend a few yearspractisingAnd codifying what
you can. Of course I doubt anyone on the planetcould do It
successfully, but people love challenges. Adrian>
-----Original Message-----> From: Clyde Lee [<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx] >
Sent: Thursday, 18 July 2002 1:58 AM> To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching > -
change directions> > > Understand, this is not about
FIBS, this is about PIVOTS.> > You have contended over and
over that because the pivots that > are picked by a stringent
mathematical definition do not fit > what you see as pivots that
the study is faulty.> > You (and I guess most of the readers
on this and several other> lists) know that I am dedicated to the
pivot determination > METHOD that I have developed. I am not tied
to any > particular length for the pivot but at the present time
when > an analysis is done then the number of bars used to evaluate
> when a pivot occurs is fixed. It may be that that condition
> needs to be tied some way to market activity, I just do not
know.> > What I want you to do is define for me the
characteristics > that you use in defining what constitutes a pivot
that you would use.> > I don't care how complicated or
simple these characteristics > are, whatever they are I would like
to program them in a > pivot finding algorithm that could be of
value to the entire > trading community.> > In
attempting something of this order I can assure you that> the
initial statement of the method will not contain all the > elements
that you use and that it will take a number of > iterations to
achieve the equivalent of what you establish > for pivots by
looking at a chart.> > On all of these studies that we have
disagreed over you> have had the benefit of hindsight in selecting
the pivots > that you thought were appropriate for measurement
where the > evaluation covered more than one pivot.>
> My pivot selection method has NO insight into what may>
happen forward of the day/bar on which an evaluation is > performed
and consequently cannot identify a pivot until some > period of
time (variable) following the actual event that is > the
pivot.> > We all know that we must have some information
forward> of the pivot to be able to identify that pivot. I know
that> is a matter of fact and accept the "lag" inherent in the
> determination of pivots.> > I'm willing to put
whatever time is needed into such a > project since I think it will
give me and many others a > better understanding of why a "simple"
method of picking > pivots is invalid.> >
Clyde> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- -> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)> SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 7910
Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540> Houston, TX 77063 Fax:
(713) 783-1092> Details at: <A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com>
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -> >
----- Original Message -----> From: "Don Ewers" <<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 9:54 AM> Subject: Re: [RT] Why
Fibonacci Numbers work and Number > crunching doesn't>
> > > Clyde,> > Yes your use of a 21-bar, has
mirrored the pivots off the top I that> showed> > in my
gif, however in looking at your pivot selection going > backwards
> > from there some questions arrise that I believe causes your
> "study" of > > fib's in this case, to be
flawed.> > > > >
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________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
11Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 16:14:43 -0500From: Clyde Lee <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
Re: Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching - change
directionsI do not have to run to the book store at
all!His definition is as ambiguous as you can possibly get.If
it were not so then long ago I might have accepted whathe is trying to
but not able to say.Clyde- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - -Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx7910
Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713)
783-1092Details at: <A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ------ Original
Message -----From: "Adrian Pitt" <<A
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent:
Wednesday, July 17, 2002 4:03 PMSubject: RE: [RT] Why Fibonacci
Numbers work and Number crunching - changedirections>
Clyde,>> I have the definitive answer for you if you truly
wish to discover which> Pivots to use. Here's your
answer:>> ALWAYS USE THE PATTERN TERMINATION
POINT.>> How do we find the pattern termination
point?>> BUY GLEN NEELY's "MASTERING ELLIOTT WAVE" and spend
a few years> practising> And codifying what you can. Of
course I doubt anyone on the planet> could do> It
successfully, but people love challenges.>>
Adrian>> > -----Original Message-----> > From:
Clyde Lee [<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx]>
> Sent: Thursday, 18 July 2002 1:58 AM> > To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching>
> - change directions> >> >> >
Understand, this is not about FIBS, this is about PIVOTS.>
>> > You have contended over and over that because the pivots
that> > are picked by a stringent mathematical definition do not
fit> > what you see as pivots that the study is faulty.>
>> > You (and I guess most of the readers on this and several
other> > lists) know that I am dedicated to the pivot
determination> > METHOD that I have developed. I am not tied to
any> > particular length for the pivot but at the present time
when> > an analysis is done then the number of bars used to
evaluate> > when a pivot occurs is fixed. It may be that that
condition> > needs to be tied some way to market activity, I
just do not know.> >> > What I want you to do is
define for me the characteristics> > that you use in defining
what constitutes a pivot that you would use.> >> > I
don't care how complicated or simple these characteristics> >
are, whatever they are I would like to program them in a> >
pivot finding algorithm that could be of value to the entire> >
trading community.> >> > In attempting something of
this order I can assure you that> > the initial statement of the
method will not contain all the> > elements that you use and
that it will take a number of> > iterations to achieve the
equivalent of what you establish> > for pivots by looking at a
chart.> >> > On all of these studies that we have
disagreed over you> > have had the benefit of hindsight in
selecting the pivots> > that you thought were appropriate for
measurement where the> > evaluation covered more than one
pivot.> >> > My pivot selection method has NO insight
into what may> > happen forward of the day/bar on which an
evaluation is> > performed and consequently cannot identify a
pivot until some> > period of time (variable) following the
actual event that is> > the pivot.> >> > We
all know that we must have some information forward> > of the
pivot to be able to identify that pivot. I know that> > is a
matter of fact and accept the "lag" inherent in the> >
determination of pivots.> >> > I'm willing to put
whatever time is needed into such a> > project since I think it
will give me and many others a> > better understanding of why a
"simple" method of picking> > pivots is invalid.>
>> > Clyde> >> > - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -> > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home
of SwingMachine)> > SYTECH Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx> >
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540> > Houston, TX
77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092> > Details at: <A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ->
>> > ----- Original Message -----> > From: "Don
Ewers" <<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 9:54 AM> > Subject: Re: [RT]
Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number> > crunching
doesn't> >> >> > > Clyde,> >
> Yes your use of a 21-bar, has mirrored the pivots off the top I
that> > showed> > > in my gif, however in looking
at your pivot selection going> > backwards> > >
from there some questions arrise that I believe causes your> >
"study" of> > > fib's in this case, to be flawed.>
>> >> >> >> >
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/zMEolB/TM> >> >> >
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12Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 16:45:12 -0500From: "FXTrader" <<A
href="mailto:fxtrader@xxxxxxxxxxx";>fxtrader@xxxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
Early Warning Signals - This Indicator Foretold All?Not sure if
anyone caught the article in this mornings WSJ. It was titled,“The
Early-Warning Signal For Stock Trouble”. It was quite interesting
tosay the least. The article pointed out how the credit-swap market
usuallytells you several months ahead of time, when a company is
having trouble.The credit-swap market is basically insurance that
lenders, big bondholders,amongst others, purchase to protect against a
borrowers defaulting on bonds,loans etc.What was pointed out here
was the premium paid for this insurance goes updramatically months
before the corporate debacle occurs. This happened withboth Enron and
WorldCom. The suggestion was made this could be an earlyindicator for
companies about to have major trouble.The article went on to point out
the same premium increases are happeningfor Sprint, AT&T, AT&T
Wireless, Qwest and yes, you guessed it, AOL TimeWarner.Is this a
real indicator or just a fluke? It will be interesting to see
howthings play out over the next six months.Rich
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13Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 17:57:45 -0400 (EDT)From: John Cappello
<jvc689@xxxxxxx>Subject: Low
Cost Day Trading Method/SystemThis method/system is not fancy or
high tech and should still be considered experimental given its short
track record.Picked up 7 e-mini points today. First trade was
triggerred by the overextension in price on all 3 time frames used and
made a good short. The second had concurrence on its side but breadth
changed and caused an early exit. That too was a short.I am
enjoying the fib debate not so much from whether one side is right or
wrong, but from the various characterizations the participants are
giving each other...carry on.I am learning a lot more than just about
the fib...but also people. My two cents is that whether one chooses to
call them "whatever" retracements, "whatever does appear to
exist.Sincerely,John------------------
Reply Separator --------------------Originally From: John Cappello
<jvc689@xxxxxxx>Subject:
[RT] Low Cost Day Trading Method/SystemDate: 07/16/2002
04:56pmWhile I am still trading almost always in the
market mechanical S&P and Nas system, I also wanted to develop a
low to no cost day trading system.1. You can use Lycos to get
free Nas and S&P live charts. For $9.95 per month you can a lot
more.I like being frugal.2. The Lycos has built in indicaters and
my favorite is the moving average volume.3. I trade off of 1
min. , 10 min. and 60 min. bars looking for concurrence and I started
with a $10,000 test account.I also know my own S&R's as a backdrop
and posted these calculations this week.4. I also check for
breadth [Advancers vs Decliners]and the simpest way for me is to just
go to the Oddball site hourly and see that status.If red, decliners
beat advancers. If green vice versa. I disregard the Oddball
numbers.5. I trade with no stops because I like my entries and am
not adverse to averaging up or down one time as long as I do not take
2 overnight.I have taken as low as a 1 point profit and as high as a
20 point profit. Most fall in between and are assesed on my tolerance
which is a personal thing.Over the last 2 weeks I am up 50
e-mini points and have not taken any losses that were not reversed out
the next day.I know that is not a track record but it is a start. It
is just retirement fun. Sometimes Lycos is down and when that happens
I take the day off rather than fight Lycos.I may just be lucky so
far.Frankly, Hurst-Fourier, Pitchforks, Fibs, Ben's proprietary
indicater, Astrology and other things posted here have been helpful
to me from a perspective standpoint.There seems to be a little bit of
luck or "feel" in all of these too.Once again, this may all be
luck but so much of what I see posted is the result of conjecture or
educated guesses, I thought it was time to share this.No doubt
this can be modified or bettered by the geniuses on this list, but so
far this simple little "system" has been fun for me. I trade until
about 1:30PM and then go smoke a good cigar [I do not inhale,I just
like the taste]and have a long swim... Hans Selye's answer to
stress.Sincerely,John------------------------
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14Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 18:08:01 -0400 (EDT)From: John Cappello
<jvc689@xxxxxxx>Subject:
Early Warning Signals - This Indicator Foretold All?Rich,I
did not catch the WSJ article. My comments are based upon past
observation.I believe it is SOP that Insurers use for highly
leveraged companies. The Enron and WorldCom situations just gave them
more fodder to raise rates.If the other companies you mention
default, then we are in even bigger
trouble.John------------------ Reply Separator
--------------------Originally From: "FXTrader" <<A
href="mailto:fxtrader@xxxxxxxxxxx";>fxtrader@xxxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
[RT] Early Warning Signals - This Indicator Foretold All?Date:
07/17/2002 04:45pmNot sure if anyone caught the article in
this mornings WSJ. It was titled,“The Early-Warning Signal For
Stock Trouble”. It was quite interesting tosay the least. The
article pointed out how the credit-swap market usuallytells you
several months ahead of time, when a company is having trouble.The
credit-swap market is basically insurance that lenders, big
bondholders,amongst others, purchase to protect against a
borrowers defaulting on bonds,loans etc.What was pointed out
here was the premium paid for this insurance goes updramatically
months before the corporate debacle occurs. This happened withboth
Enron and WorldCom. The suggestion was made this could be an
earlyindicator for companies about to have major trouble.The
article went on to point out the same premium increases are
happeningfor Sprint, AT&T, AT&T Wireless, Qwest and yes,
you guessed it, AOL TimeWarner.Is this a real indicator or
just a fluke? It will be interesting to see howthings play out
over the next six months.Rich C.---Outgoing Mail &
Attachments are Certified Virus Free.Checked by AVG anti-virus system
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7/15/2002________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
15Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 15:40:41 -0700From: "Gary Funck" <<A
href="mailto:gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Subject: RE:
Early Warning Signals - This Indicator Foretold All?FAIR USE
ONLYHow Credit-Default SwapsAre Used to Predict
TroubleBy HENNY SENDER Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET
JOURNALThis burgeoning but little-known market for credit-default
swaps(essentially, insurance that lenders and big bondholders, among
others, can buy to protect against a borrower defaulting on
bonds)has proven to be an effective early indicator for
disasters-in-waiting. To many who follow this market, it is better
than a company's stock and bond prices. The price of this insurance
often goes up sharply in the several months before a corporate
debacle,as it did in the case of both Enron Corp. and WorldCom
Inc.Now, for those who see this market as an indicator,
credit-default swaps are signaling troubles ahead for several
telecommunications companies, most notably Sprint Corp. In recent
weeks, the cost of buying protection against a default by Sprint has
soared. Other firms -- AT&T Corp., AT&T Wireless Services Inc.
and Qwest Communications International Inc., which is facing
investigations about its accounting -- also show up on the radar
screen.Recently, they have been joined by media companies such as
AOL Time Warner Inc. that also have been hard-hit by investors' rising
alarm about heavy debt loads, along with a variety of companies such
as energy business AES Corp. To be sure, it is dangerous to read too
much into the credit-protection prices when the overall markets are
as spooked as they are today.In short, this is a market where
banks, bondholders and other corporate creditors act not too
differently from homeowners wanting to protect themselves financially
from a worst-case scenario, such as a fire burning down the house. In
this case, the big guys are seeking insurance not for their homes but
for the bonds and loans they hold. The market's name is a bit of a
misnomer: it's more about insuring against exposures to defaults than
actually swapping them.Say, for example, an investor is holding
Sprint bonds valued at $10 million and is nervous about the solvency
of that company in the wake of meltdowns in the general industry. As
recently as January, this investor could obtain protection against a
default by Sprint for one year for about $150,000. The price of
protection started rising in February. By April, the price had risen
to $400,000, and by June, it was much harder to obtain and had risen
in cost to $900,000."Over the past few weeks, pessimism has gotten
tighter and affected other companies," says a spokesman for Sprint.
"But nothing has changed at Sprint. We continue to improve our
financial flexibility."Because there is no exchange, most
individual investors can't easily access information about
credit-default swap prices, except by asking their brokers to check
with the credit-derivatives desk at their brokerage firm. For big
investors this is more-easily done, and growing numbers are paying
attention to the market because it "has enormous value as a lead
indicator," says Allen Yarish, head of credit derivatives at Royal
Bank of Canada in Toronto. "Ignore it at your peril." Adds Jeremy
Barnum, head of North American credit-derivatives trading at J.P.
Morgan Chase & Co: "This market is better at reflecting the
totality of opinion on any credit than more traditional
markets."Whatever Sprint's fate, the pricing in the credit-default
swap market proved to be very prescient in the case of both WorldCom
and Enron. In the days before the telecommunications giant revealed a
$3.8 billion accounting irregularity, its shares traded at a couple of
dollars each and its $26 billion in bonds traded anywhere from 44
cents to 77 cents on the dollar. But even months before the June 25
disclosure of what could be the largest corporate financial fraud,
the credit-default swap market was signaling distress, as players
were focused on WorldCom's enormous debt burden, nervous about its
ability to make good on bonds that would begin maturing in January
2003. The demand for credit-default protection had soared with almost
nobody willing to take the other side at levels that made economic
sense."The bet with WorldCom was when it would default, not
if," says Boaz Weinstein, global head of investment-grade
credit-trading risk at Deutsche Bank. While WorldCom hasn't since
defaulted even as it moves closer to a possible bankruptcy-court
filing, its shares have joined the penny-stock club and the bonds now
fetch about 16 cents on the dollar.The same for Enron. Even
before the energy company lost its investment-grade status last fall,
just before its free fall into bankruptcy-court protection amid myriad
accounting issues, the demand from lenders and creditors for
protection against a possible Enron default was so great that the
price was far higher than it should have been given its then-high
credit rating.>From a small group of banks, notably J.P. Morgan
Chase and Deutsche Bank, players in the credit-default market now
include a wide range of securities firms, investment funds, insurers
and reinsurers. The big banks tend to both buy and sell the
protection, even as they also hedge their own exposure to corporate
clients. Others, such as hedge funds, often take one-way bets, usually
by selling the protection.Estimates of the market's size are
imprecise. But according to people in the market, there is about $900
billion in the equivalent of insurance premiums outstanding -- not bad
for a market that is less than seven-years old.If there is one
message the market has been signaling recently, it is massive aversion
to debt, especially when held by companies whose assets may not be all
that tangible. After WorldCom's disclosure of the accounting debacle,
buying protection on just about every company in the
telecommunications world and related spheres, such as media, soared.
But patterns were there. For example, while all telecom companies were
hard hit, the cost of protection against defaults by AT&T,
AT&T Wireless and Sprint has risen far more than for SBC
Communications Inc. or Verizon Communications Inc. That reflects the
market's view that the sources of revenue at the former group are
less stable than at the latter two companies.For Sprint, the
price of credit-default protection seems unusually steep given that
the company is still rated investment-grade, albeit just barely. In
early June, Moody's Investors Service downgraded the company's $22
billion of debt to one level above junk. Moody's cited concern about
the cash drain of wireless operations at its Sprint PCS Group,
inadequate cash balances and the fact that it "will not generate
material free cash flow as a percentage of total debt until 2004,"
even as it expects Sprint to complete a new revolving facility and
renew its accounts-receivable securitization program."If a company
has negative cash flow and lacks liquidity, it may not be able to
control its own fate," says Steven Zamsky, a credit analyst with
Morgan Stanley. Adds David Barden of Banc of America Securities: "The
phone company generates cash flow, but PCS is a net borrower, and in
this market that is not a great thing." The Sprint spokesman says
comparisons with WorldCom are "faulty."AES, meanwhile, didn't
raise red flags with its $5.5 billion in parent-company debt and $18.7
billion in debt on individual projects back when it had $30 billion in
stock-market capitalization. But today, its market capitalization is
only about $2 billion, and that makes it a "red light" company, said
Mr. Zamsky, meaning that credit-default protection is now far too
expensive to buy."We are being painted with the same brush as
energy-trading companies," says an AES spokesman. "But our business is
totally different. We have long-term contracts. We are not energy
traders."Then there is the case of AOL Time Warner. Protection
against an AOL Time Warner default became dramatically more expensive
in recent days, but some dealers say the lurch in price was partly
because banks extending the company $10 billion in new credit lines
were buying protection, creating a sudden surge in demand. In the
past, banks used to sell down their lending exposure in the secondary
loan market; now, they often prefer to hedge exposure to big borrowers
in the credit-default swap market. The AOL protection price has
receded a bit of
late.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ >
Clyde,> > Yes your use of a 21-bar, has mirrored the pivots off
the top I that> showed> > in my gif, however in looking
at your pivot selection going backwardsfrom> > there some
questions arrise that I believe causes your "study" of fib'sin>
> this case, to be
flawed.>>>>>> To unsubscribe
from this group, send an email to:> <A
href="mailto:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>>
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to <A
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6/5/02________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
17Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 18:57:07 -0400From: "M. Simms" <<A
href="mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
RE: Gap behaviorThis would explain why Toby Crabel's "opening
range breakout" system....never worked.-----Original
Message-----From: Clyde Lee [<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent:
Wednesday, July 17, 2002 1:59 PMTo: <A
href="mailto:Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxCc:
<A
href="mailto:MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
[RT] Gap behaviorWith the big gap this morning I decided to
look at the behaviorof prices (on a daily basis) after gaps.I
used the SP cash index from 1942 until now. That was theearliest that
I had data with O/h/l/c data.There were a total of 619 gaps over
this period (only about 7 per year on average)I looked to see,
for down gaps where the low price was for thegap day and 3 days after
the gap relative to the opening priceon the gap day.I looked
to see, for up gaps where the high price was for thegap day and 3 days
after the gap relative to the opening priceon the gap day.
Looking at the averages however, it would appear that for
aquick buck the best trade is in the opposite direction of
thegap!!!!! On average just over 1% of price.Averages
on Gaps for SP Cash 1942-2002 Direction Number Gap% H0% L0% H1%
L1% H2% L2% H3% L3% Up Gap 229 -0.28 0.84 -1.11 0.65 -1.14 0.67 -1.08
0.69 -1.05 Down Gap 390 0.17 0.89 -0.60 1.06 -0.33 1.07 -0.38 1.07
-0.37 Counts on Gaps for SP Cash 1942-2002 Down
Gap=Gap open to low of given dayUp Gap =Gap open to high of given
dayGap Day Gap Day+1 Gap Day+2 Gap Day+3 <o >o <o
>o <o >o <o >o-211 0 -188 41 -169 60 -159 690 379
-72 318 -89 301 -105 285- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - -Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
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18Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 16:13:43 -0700From: "Gary Funck" <<A
href="mailto:gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Subject: RE:
Gap behaviorAdd to that, that the futures market seems more
efficient at diminishing thegains from gaps. Just an
observation.Regarding methodology - I'd feel more comfortable with
an analysis thatlooked at either stock futures, or the ETF's (the
SPY's have a fairly longhistory). The problem with looking at indices
is they aren't actuallytradeable, and they're often "theoretical" in
terms of prices reached. Theanalysis may also hinge on the definition
of "gap". For example, I looked ata "fade the open" strategy once
which simply went the other direction fromthe difference between the
open and close - not a true gap where the lowwould be above the
previous close, or the high below the previous close. Itworked fairly
often, but not enough to gain confidence that it was more thana
statistical quirk.-----Original Message-----From: M. Simms [<A
href="mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent:
Wednesday, July 17, 2002 3:57 PMTo: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
RE: [RT] Gap behaviorThis would explain why Toby Crabel's
"opening range breakout" system....never
worked.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
19Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 18:06:10 -0700 (PDT)From: <A
href="mailto:tonyvare@xxxxxxxxx";>tonyvare@xxxxxxxxxSubject:
Barron's Online - Investors, Fasten Your Seat Belts*Please
note, the sender's email address has not been
verified.it's interesting that thistechnical analyst
doesn'tmention the head and shouldersformation at the end of
thearticle********************If you are
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20Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 20:18:13 -0500From: "Hill, Ernie" <<A
href="mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx";>ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
RE: Prognosticators AnomymousTime for an update of my prognosis.
The market certainly fooled me by thehuge drop on Monday. The bounce
that I was expecting I believe was completedtoday, and of course the
bounce came from the 7-15 low and not the 7-11 lowlike I had expected.
This bounce terminated today at 926.55, which is almostan exact 50%
retracement of the move down from the close on 7-8 to the lowon
7-15.Now I know some of the Fib critics will say that I am
reaching by claimingthis is a Fib retracement, but this is were my
analysis leads me. I amexpecting a drop to at least 865 by Monday,
which represents a .618extension of the move from the close on 7-8 to
the low on 7-15, as measuredfrom today's high of
926.55.E-----Original Message-----From: Hill,
Ernie [<A
href="mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 9:07 PMTo: '<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'Subject:
RE: [RT] Prognosticators AnomymousAfter doing a little more work
this weekend I now think that a 50%retracement of the move from 7-8 to
7-11 is an equally valid target for theshort term bounce that I am
expecting so my targets now are 947 or the964-968 range. I then expect
a drop to the 759-782 range by 8-15.E-----Original
Message-----From: Hill, Ernie [<A
href="mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent:
Thursday, July 11, 2002 8:37 PMTo: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
RE: [RT] Prognosticators AnomymousIn light of today's price action
I would like to modify my previousforecast. I am now expecting a short
term top on 7-15 or 7-16 in the pricerange of 964-968. From there I
expect the market to return to itsprecipitous
decline.E-----Original Message-----From: Hill, Ernie
Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 8:28 PMTo: '<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'Subject:
RE: [RT] Prognosticators AnomymousOk John I'll bite. Using my own
proprietary methodology I am expecting a twoto three day rebound with
a target range of 983-985.E-----Original
Message-----From: John Cappello [<A
href="mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx";>mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]Sent:
Wednesday, July 10, 2002 6:17 PMTo: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxCc:
<A
href="mailto:MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
[RT] Prognosticators AnomymousAfter observing the down trend
over the last 3 and 1/2 months, I noted that the day after each new
yearly S&P low there occurred a spike the next day that recaptured
[at least for a time] a major part of the drop. Based upon this
limited "study" I am looking for the same bounce tomorrow.I already
made my long committment.I would be interested in the forecast by
Sailors, fibers, pivoters , S&R er's, pitchforkers, Hurst-Fouriers
and whoever else would like to have fun and participate in this
guesstimate of what will happen tomorrow.Hope some of you can
find the time to participate.Sincerely,JohnTo
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21Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 20:22:08 -0500From: Clyde Lee <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
Re: Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching - change
directionsDon,I really don't fathom what you are asking.
Yes I do have AGET (forlonger than I want to think about) but what you
are asking is beyondmy comprehension.Insofar as variable
length in the pivot determination, not a problem atall -- just what is
the basis for the variation.I still am interested in the thought
process which you use to ascertainwhat is a valid pivot and what is
not.I can easily create an environment that contains both "major"
and"minor" pivots but how/why use what is my question. Should I
useTJ's Elliott oscillator as a basis for determining the EW count and
fromthat determine what length of swing detection to
use.Whether you use the training mode or not, I know that once
I've seena chart of any symbol then I am exposed to having that
informationmuddy my thinking and so I live/die with mechanical
determinations ofpivots and realize that there is probably something
else that should beused to determine if such pivots are
valid.Clyde- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - -Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx7910
Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713)
783-1092Details at: <A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ------ Original
Message -----From: "Don Ewers" <<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent:
Wednesday, July 17, 2002 5:57 PMSubject: Re: [RT] Why Fibonacci
Numbers work and Number crunching - changedirections>
Clyde you said:> "On all of these studies that we have disagreed
over you> have had the benefit of hindsight in selecting the pivots
that> you thought were appropriate for measurement where
the> evaluation covered more than one pivot">> Clyde
I hope you know me better than that, I used "training mode"
andthese> were really things I would have looked at (I do not
know what the next bar> will be until I move on).>> I
am saying a "variable" bar length would be required and your
techniquecan> not do that, how could it know (a EW count to
pick points whether major or> minor EW counts)?>> I
am curious about the question I asked?> "Additionally, am I correct
in saying that the number at C (5.015)> represents its relationship
of BC to AB? If so as mentioned the number is> not a valid
extension from pivots that should be used. Also it is notbeing>
used in the> manner that I would have done it (comparing one leg to
the prior leg).That> is not how fib "expansions" are done.
Again correct me if I am not> understanding "that aspect" of what
you are doing.">> Can you elaborate since it may be causing
data in the analysis that should> not be there. I believe you have
AGET (or did) so you should know what Iam> asking.> don
ewers>>>>> ----- Original Message
-----> From: "Clyde Lee" <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>> To:
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 10:57 AM> Subject: [RT] Why
Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching - change>
directions>>> > Understand, this is not about
FIBS, this is about PIVOTS.> >> > You have contended
over and over that because the pivots that> > are picked by a
stringent mathematical definition do not fit what> > you see as
pivots that the study is faulty.> >> > You (and I
guess most of the readers on this and several other> > lists)
know that I am dedicated to the pivot determination> > METHOD
that I have developed. I am not tied to any particular> > length
for the pivot but at the present time when an analysis is> >
done then the number of bars used to evaluate when a pivot> >
occurs is fixed. It may be that that condition needs to be tied>
> some way to market activity, I just do not know.> >>
> What I want you to do is define for me the characteristics
that> > you use in defining what constitutes a pivot that you
would> > use.> >> > I don't care how
complicated or simple these characteristics> > are, whatever
they are I would like to program them in a pivot> > finding
algorithm that could be of value to the entire trading> >
community.> >> > In attempting something of this order
I can assure you that> > the initial statement of the method
will not contain all the elements> > that you use and that it
will take a number of iterations to achieve> > the equivalent of
what you establish for pivots by looking at> > a chart.>
>> > On all of these studies that we have disagreed over
you> > have had the benefit of hindsight in selecting the pivots
that> > you thought were appropriate for measurement where
the> > evaluation covered more than one pivot.>
>> > My pivot selection method has NO insight into what
may> > happen forward of the day/bar on which an evaluation
is> > performed and consequently cannot identify a pivot
until> > some period of time (variable) following the actual
event that> > is the pivot.> >> > We all
know that we must have some information forward> > of the pivot
to be able to identify that pivot. I know that> > is a matter of
fact and accept the "lag" inherent in the> > determination of
pivots.> >> > I'm willing to put whatever time is
needed into such a project> > since I think it will give me and
many others a better understanding> > of why a "simple" method
of picking pivots is invalid.> >> > Clyde>
>> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-> > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)> >
SYTECH Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx> >
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540> > Houston, TX
77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092> > Details at: <A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ->
>> > ----- Original Message -----> > From: "Don
Ewers" <<A
href="mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 9:54 AM> > Subject: Re: [RT]
Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunchingdoesn't>
>> >> > > Clyde,> > > Yes your use
of a 21-bar, has mirrored the pivots off the top I that> >
showed> > > in my gif, however in looking at your pivot
selection going backwards> from> > > there some
questions arrise that I believe causes your "study" offib's>
in> > > this case, to be flawed.> >>
>> >> >> >> > To unsubscribe
from this group, send an email to:> > <A
href="mailto:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> >> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is
subject to<A
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>> >>>> ---> Outgoing mail is
certified Virus Free.> Checked by AVG anti-virus system (<A
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Version: 6.0.370 / Virus Database: 205 - Release Date:
6/5/02>>>> To unsubscribe from this group,
send an email to:> <A
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Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>>>________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
22Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 21:32:31 -0400From: "CJ Macintosh" <<A
href="mailto:nidarian@xxxxxxxxx";>nidarian@xxxxxxxxx>Subject:
PREDICTOR DESCOVEREDHi,this was produced when
a weather predicting algorithum was altered to work on time series. It
works amazingly well. Anyone think its tradeable. No parameters 1 input -
close.ThanksBilo lookalike[This message
contained
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23Date: Thu, 18 Jul 2002 01:35:46 -0000From: "tradewynne" <<A
href="mailto:tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx";>tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx>Subject:
Re: Gap behavior--- In <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxx,";>realtraders@xxxx, "M. Simms"
<prosys@xxxx> wrote:> This would explain why Toby Crabel's
"opening range breakout" system.... never worked.It worked
today, and just the way Clyde research suggested it should, and either
way you want to slice up the "ORB."RTH ORB breakout to the
downside after up-gap.24hr ORB breakout was to the upside after a
small down-gap.I'm not aware that Crabel had an ORB-Gap system
Mark. Couldyou fill me in? I'm aware of his research on various
patternsand his conclusions about NR7s,
etc....Thanks,BW> > -----Original
Message-----> From: Clyde Lee [mailto:clydelee@xxxx]> Sent:
Wednesday, July 17, 2002 1:59 PM> To: Realtraders@xxxx> Cc:
MedianLine@xxxx> Subject: [RT] Gap behavior> >
> With the big gap this morning I decided to look at the
behavior> of prices (on a daily basis) after gaps.> >
I used the SP cash index from 1942 until now. That was the>
earliest that I had data with O/h/l/c data.> > There were a
total of 619 gaps over this period (only about 7 > per year on
average)> > I looked to see, for down gaps where the low
price was for the> gap day and 3 days after the gap relative to the
opening price> on the gap day.> > I looked to see,
for up gaps where the high price was for the> gap day and 3 days
after the gap relative to the opening price> on the gap day.
> > Looking at the averages however, it would appear that
for a> quick buck the best trade is in the opposite direction of
the> gap!!!!! On average just over 1% of price.> >
> > Averages on Gaps for SP Cash 1942-2002 > >
Direction Number Gap% H0% L0% H1% L1% H2% L2% H3% L3% > Up Gap
229 -0.28 0.84 -1.11 0.65 -1.14 0.67 -1.08 0.69 -1.05 > Down
Gap 390 0.17 0.89 -0.60 1.06 -0.33 1.07 -0.38 1.07 -0.37 >
> > > Counts on Gaps for SP Cash 1942-2002 >
> Down Gap=Gap open to low of given day> Up Gap =Gap open to
high of given day> > Gap Day Gap Day+1 Gap Day+2 Gap Day+3
> <o >o <o >o <o >o <o >o> -211 0
-188 41 -169 60 -159 69> 0 379 -72 318 -89 301 -105 285>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ->
Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)> SYTECH Corporation
email: clydelee@xxxx > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713)
783-9540> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092> Details at:
<A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com>
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> Yahoo! Groups Sponsor > > Click here to find your
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Service.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Message:
24Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 20:41:15 -0500From: Clyde Lee <<A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
3 minute QQQ Hurst ProjectionRemember this is a 3 minute chart so
there are a lot ofwiggles that may or may not play out.This is
somewhat variant from an analysis of 30 minutecharts of ES and NQ
which point to a larger retracementtomorrow.Clyde- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)SYTECH Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713)
783-1092Details at: <A
href="http://www.theswingmachine.com";>www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -[This
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25Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 22:51:04 -0400From: "Karen Beckwith"
<<A
href="mailto:hoticetea@xxxxxxxxx";>hoticetea@xxxxxxxxx>Subject:
Re: PREDICTOR DESCOVEREDThose charts look nice.Now, WHAT did
you say this is? From where?karen----- Original Message -----
From: CJ Macintosh To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 9:32 PMSubject: [RT] PREDICTOR
DESCOVEREDHi,this was produced when a
weather predicting algorithum was altered to work on time series. It works
amazingly well. Anyone think its tradeable. No parameters 1 input -
close.ThanksBilo lookalikeYahoo! Groups Sponsor
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