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On Wednesday, July 17, 2002, 1:55:11 PM, Adrian Pitt wrote:
AP> http://www.elliottwaveresearch.com/
It is interesting. He has done the kind of process Clyde was
describing to you: (1) define a *pattern* that can be coded in a
program (the rules Clyde was asking about), (2) run a LARGE number of
cases (Clyde was objecting to making conclusions based on a small
number of examples), and (3) examine the statistics of the result.
What he has shown is that he has a *pattern* that produces a "good"
result. The analysis was of his patterns, not Fib numbers directly. He
does not give the statistical significance of just the Fib part, so we
still don't really know how good the Fib part is. The Fib part was just
a byproduct of his pattern research.
In science, it is good to have someone else replicate results. It
might be interesting to see if others can get the same results, given
the rules he has laid out for patterns. There are, after all, some
vendors in this business that are, well,... a bit less than completely
honest. :-) If an independent person could replicate just the Fib
results using his pattern rules, ignoring the rest of the pattern work
he has done, this might be a very interesting result. [Hey, Clyde :-)]
There *is* a bit of selling going on. He claims this is the first time
such a thing has been done. I guess he is not familiar with Larry
Williams work on patterns many years ago. A lot of people have done
statistical pattern analysis, finding equally favorable stats for some
patterns. He's the first and only?.... Not likely.
Actually, he *is* clever. He has enlisted hundreds of people to lend
him their computers for his analysis. He then sells a part of the
results back to these people. I have to give him credit. :-)
ztrader
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