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RE: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching - change directions

To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching - change directions
From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2002 20:19:01 -0700
In-reply-to: <014d01c22de5$44d89300$0f81fb43@xxxxxxx>
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
THIS JUST IN......TOP QUANTS USING FIB RETRACEMENTS FOR STOCK SELECTION
SCREENING....
3 YEAR LOOKBACK SAID TO BE OPTIMAL.
No word on WHICH retracement level is used........hmmmmm.
No word if it can be used IN REVERSE for shorting....hmmmmm.


> -----Original Message-----
> From: Don Ewers [mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 6:57 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching -
> change directions
>
>
> Clyde you said:
> "On all of these studies that we have disagreed over you
> have had the benefit of hindsight in selecting the pivots that
> you thought were appropriate for measurement where the
> evaluation covered more than one pivot"
>
> Clyde I hope you know me better than that, I used "training mode"
> and these
> were really things I would have looked at (I do not know what the next bar
> will be until I move on).
>
> I am saying a "variable" bar length would be required and your
> technique can
> not do that, how could it know (a EW count to pick points whether major or
> minor EW counts)?
>
> I am curious about the question I asked?
> "Additionally, am I correct in saying that the number at C (5.015)
> represents its relationship of BC to AB?  If so as mentioned the number is
> not a valid extension from pivots that should be used. Also it is
> not being
> used in the
> manner that I would have done it (comparing one leg to the prior
> leg).  That
> is not how fib "expansions" are done.  Again correct me if I am not
> understanding "that aspect" of what you are doing."
>
> Can you elaborate since it may be causing data in the analysis that should
> not be there.  I believe you have AGET (or did) so you should
> know what I am
> asking.
> don ewers
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 10:57 AM
> Subject: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching - change
> directions
>
>
> > Understand, this is not about FIBS, this is about PIVOTS.
> >
> > You have contended over and over that because the pivots that
> > are picked by a stringent mathematical definition do not fit what
> > you see as pivots that the study is faulty.
> >
> > You (and I guess most of the readers on this and several other
> > lists) know that I am dedicated to the pivot determination
> > METHOD that I have developed.  I am not tied to any particular
> > length for the pivot but at the present time when an analysis is
> > done then the number of bars used to evaluate when a pivot
> > occurs is fixed.  It may be that that condition needs to be tied
> > some way to market activity, I just do not know.
> >
> > What I want you to do is define for me the characteristics that
> > you use in defining what constitutes a pivot that you would
> > use.
> >
> > I don't care how complicated or simple these characteristics
> > are, whatever they are I would like to program them in a pivot
> > finding algorithm that could be of value to the entire trading
> > community.
> >
> > In attempting something of this order I can assure you that
> > the initial statement of the method will not contain all the elements
> > that you use and that it will take a number of iterations to achieve
> > the equivalent of what you establish for pivots by looking at
> > a chart.
> >
> > On all of these studies that we have disagreed over you
> > have had the benefit of hindsight in selecting the pivots that
> > you thought were appropriate for measurement where the
> > evaluation covered more than one pivot.
> >
> > My pivot selection method has NO insight into what may
> > happen forward of the day/bar on which an evaluation is
> > performed and consequently cannot identify a pivot until
> > some period of time (variable) following the actual event that
> > is the pivot.
> >
> > We all know that we must have some information forward
> > of the pivot to be able to identify that pivot.  I know that
> > is a matter of fact and accept the "lag" inherent in the
> > determination of pivots.
> >
> > I'm willing to put whatever time is needed into such a project
> > since I think it will give me and many others a better understanding
> > of why a "simple" method of picking pivots is invalid.
> >
> > Clyde
> >
> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - -
> > Clyde Lee   Chairman/CEO          (Home of SwingMachine)
> > SYTECH Corporation          email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105       Office:    (713) 783-9540
> > Houston,  TX  77063               Fax:    (713) 783-1092
> > Details at:                      www.theswingmachine.com
> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - - - - - - -
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 9:54 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number
> crunching doesn't
> >
> >
> > > Clyde,
> > > Yes your use of a 21-bar, has mirrored the pivots off the top I that
> > showed
> > > in my gif, however in looking at your pivot selection going backwards
> from
> > > there some questions arrise that I believe causes your
> "study" of fib's
> in
> > > this case, to be flawed.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
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>
>


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