|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Adrian,
Curious about something, do you trade "our" night session over there
(Australia)? The reason I ask is I see it as frequently being very
"technical".
By the way although many would not consider 50% a fib (actual is .48 I
believe), last night was a good example of what I frequently see. There
were some "nice" ones.
Starting from when London roughly opened (when the "real" action normally
begins):
2:33 NY ES made a low @893.75, 3:03 NY rallied to 904, then 3:19 NY did a
50% pullback to 898.75 (well 50% was 898.875, close enough).
3:19 NY ES low @898.75, 4:08 NY rallied to 912.25, then 5:04 NY did a 50%
pullback to 905.50 (to the tic there).
5:04 NY ES low @905.50, 7:13 NY rallied to 915.50,
then 7:20 NY did a 50% pullback to 910.75 (50% was 910.50, missed by a tic).
Three for three in an orderly fashion.
Lets try another night:
The rally Monday from 875 to 924 in the night session, then retraced at 5:05
NY to 894.75 very close to the .618 at 893.75, then rallied sharply.
It that "you folks" making this happen :-)? We need our sleep here so not
this side of the pond.
don ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 4:56 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Re: Fibs
> Don,
>
> Its obvious to me...and not surprisingly, but you CAN'T change the minds
> Of people who don't wish to change i.e. people who aren't open minded.
> Many people on here...just like in real life, are merely here to push
> their
> Views and denigrate others rather than learn. The genuine learners are
> only
> A tiny% on this list. Most everyone else simply wants the free lunch.
>
> I suggest continuing the Fibo discussion is pointless as it won't
> EDUCATE the
> people who need educating. We both know as traders and market analysts
> at the
> Coal face that we see it time and time again. We also know its just one
> tool.
> We also know it can provide the key to putting on a more successful
> trade.
> These are all FACTS....by people who TRADE and MAKE MONEY.
>
> I suggest to you and everyone else...ISN'T THAT THE POINT OF BEING ON
> THIS LIST ?????
>
> Adrian
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Don Ewers [mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Wednesday, 17 July 2002 12:15 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [RT] Re: Fibs
> >
> >
> > I have repeated numerous times, Clyde's analysis proves
> > nothing ( flawed) since it does not register pivots that fall
> > in the "right" levels to measure the real fib extensions or
> > retracements (it measures all pivots, thus the flat line),
> > what else would one expect from such an analysis? This was
> > challenged a while back and numerous members stand by it move
> > on, let it go, . . . . don ewers
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 8:39 PM
> > Subject: [RT] Re:
> >
> >
> > > There is a saying: "The plural of 'anecdotes' is not 'data'." Just
> > because
> > > you can find a few instances on a chart proves you are handy with
> > > charts.
> > >
> > > Clyde did a data-packed study of retracements and posted
> > the results
> > > in a very clear and incontrovertible chart which had the length of
> > > retracements on 1 axis and the frequency of occurances on
> > the other.
> > > There was NO blip at the magical Fibonacci numbers. None.
> > The data
> > > line was perfectly
> > smooth
> > > from one side of the chart to the other with no clump at any point.
> > >
> > > Fib retracements are a prism thru which to view the
> > strength of market
> > > moves. Fib numbers have no statistical basis in fact. You
> > could just
> > > as easily use sixths, eights, tenths, or any other
> > fraction. And for
> > > every chart you post should a perfect Fib retracement, I could post
> > > one that
> > shows
> > > a perfect retracement based on PI, e, or any other rational number.
> > >
> > > Kent
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 3:35 PM
> > >
> > >
> > > Clyde,
> > > It is not a very few examples, as you have "continued to state".
> > >
> > > Your posisition seems to be, if you can't "program it", it does not
> > > exist?
> > >
> > > I say, every day, in every time frame, I use it constantly, almost
> > > more
> > than
> > > any other tool. What you call " isolated" occurs all the
> > time, and it
> > > is "not isolated"?
> > >
> > > Here are a couple of other weekly "fib things" that as you
> > would say,
> > > do
> > not
> > > exist that I recently supplied to one who inquired about
> > retracements.
> > > First two look pretty good to me (blue 50% and the red .618) of the
> > > prior moves down so far. Would they show up on what you
> > have tried to
> > > program?
> > >
> > > Keep fighting this, but you are losing the battle from what I
> > > normally trade, as it would appear may others. don ewers
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 11:22 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching
> > > doesn't
> > >
> > >
> > > > What I believe in and what I publish may be two entirely
> > different
> > > > things. You have never seen a published study by me that
> > indicated
> > > > that Gann Angle projection of time or price reversal
> > points had any
> > > > more significance than a random choice of points.
> > > >
> > > > My publication of Gann Angle points was just an
> > observation and not
> > > > an analysis.
> > > >
> > > > Why it is that you insist on selecting A VERY FEW examples of FIB
> > > > relationships that seem to work a proof that such is the
> > case I do
> > > > not understand.
> > > >
> > > > I understand that many people use FIB relationships in
> > discretionary
> > > > trading as a guide to where price reversals might occur
> > but I have
> > > > yet to see anyone publish a trading system based on the
> > FIB ratios
> > > > that was successful. And, in view of the statistical
> > data which has
> > > > been accumulated it is highly unlikely that it will.
> > > >
> > > > My whole purpose of this insistence of looking at the
> > statistics of
> > > > Fib ratios is to try to prevent some of our newer and less
> > > > experienced colleagues from jumping off onto a train that
> > is headed
> > > > for hell.
> > > >
> > > > Clyde
> > > >
> > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > > > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> > > > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> > > > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 6:48 AM
> > > > Subject: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching
> > > > doesn't
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Clyde and all those interested,
> > > > >
> > > > > Have a look at the enclosed graph. It shows very
> > clearly a perfect
> > > > > example Of the implementation of Fibonacci ratio's at work, and
> > > > > why Clyde's number crunching statistical tour de force shows up
> > > > > nothing. This graph is a daily Bar chart of the Dow, looking at
> > > > > the major high and the corrective rally we have had this year.
> > > > > Notice that the corrective rally finished in a classic Neely
> > > > > Triangle, as so many multi-wave corrective structures do. Also
> > > > > notice That at that exact moment we completed the 'e'
> > wave of the
> > > > > triangle was also the EXACT 61.8% retracement of the
> > major decline
> > > > > so far. Also note, that with almost Any swing
> > methodology applied
> > > > > to this market would never have caught this. If You go
> > to a weekly
> > > > > or monthly chart that termination point vanishes and so
> > does The
> > > > > 61.8% retracement, thereby seemingly proving Clyde's assertion.
> > > > > Clyde, You do some great work, but it seems there are 2
> > anomalies
> > > > > here..the first is You seem to believe in Gann angles but not
> > > > > Fibonacci? That's is an unusual Combination to the say
> > the least.
> > > > > Secondly, don't let yourself fall into the camp University
> > > > > academics have for the past decades of trying to prove markets
> > > > > were Random and technical analysis had no validity by
> > conducting
> > > > > spurious
> > and
> > > > > erroneous Test. Doing a number crunching test...no matter how
> > > > > detailed and intensive does NOT Prove something doesn't work
> > > > > simply because
> > your
> > > > > test didn't show it.
> > > > > This is why I sent this simple little graph. The combination of
> > Elliott
> > > > > and Fibo working a treat. These aren't isolated examples, and
> > > > > there is no one on the planet who could ever suggest we
> > stopped at
> > > > > that point because
> > "everyone
> > > > > looks at charts..so they were watching the 61.8% level".
> > > > >
> > > > > Adrian Pitt
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ---
> > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > Version: 6.0.370 / Virus Database: 205 - Release Date: 6/6/02
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > ---
> > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > Version: 6.0.370 / Virus Database: 205 - Release Date: 6/6/02
> >
> >
> > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
> > ---------------------~--> Save on REALTOR Fees
> > http://us.click.yahoo.com/Xw80LD/h1ZEAA/Ey.GAA> /zMEolB/TM
> >
> >
> > --------------------------------------------------------------
> > -------~->
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.370 / Virus Database: 205 - Release Date: 6/5/02
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Save on REALTOR Fees
http://us.click.yahoo.com/Xw80LD/h1ZEAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|