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Understand, this is not about FIBS, this is about PIVOTS.
You have contended over and over that because the pivots that
are picked by a stringent mathematical definition do not fit what
you see as pivots that the study is faulty.
You (and I guess most of the readers on this and several other
lists) know that I am dedicated to the pivot determination
METHOD that I have developed. I am not tied to any particular
length for the pivot but at the present time when an analysis is
done then the number of bars used to evaluate when a pivot
occurs is fixed. It may be that that condition needs to be tied
some way to market activity, I just do not know.
What I want you to do is define for me the characteristics that
you use in defining what constitutes a pivot that you would
use.
I don't care how complicated or simple these characteristics
are, whatever they are I would like to program them in a pivot
finding algorithm that could be of value to the entire trading
community.
In attempting something of this order I can assure you that
the initial statement of the method will not contain all the elements
that you use and that it will take a number of iterations to achieve
the equivalent of what you establish for pivots by looking at
a chart.
On all of these studies that we have disagreed over you
have had the benefit of hindsight in selecting the pivots that
you thought were appropriate for measurement where the
evaluation covered more than one pivot.
My pivot selection method has NO insight into what may
happen forward of the day/bar on which an evaluation is
performed and consequently cannot identify a pivot until
some period of time (variable) following the actual event that
is the pivot.
We all know that we must have some information forward
of the pivot to be able to identify that pivot. I know that
is a matter of fact and accept the "lag" inherent in the
determination of pivots.
I'm willing to put whatever time is needed into such a project
since I think it will give me and many others a better understanding
of why a "simple" method of picking pivots is invalid.
Clyde
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Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 9:54 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching doesn't
> Clyde,
> Yes your use of a 21-bar, has mirrored the pivots off the top I that
showed
> in my gif, however in looking at your pivot selection going backwards from
> there some questions arrise that I believe causes your "study" of fib's in
> this case, to be flawed.
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