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Don,
I'm not involved in the US markets from a trading point of view.
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Don Ewers [mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Thursday, 18 July 2002 1:00 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: Fibs
>
>
> Adrian,
> Curious about something, do you trade "our" night session
> over there (Australia)? The reason I ask is I see it as
> frequently being very "technical".
>
> By the way although many would not consider 50% a fib (actual
> is .48 I believe), last night was a good example of what I
> frequently see. There were some "nice" ones.
>
> Starting from when London roughly opened (when the "real"
> action normally
> begins):
> 2:33 NY ES made a low @893.75, 3:03 NY rallied to 904, then
> 3:19 NY did a 50% pullback to 898.75 (well 50% was 898.875,
> close enough).
>
> 3:19 NY ES low @898.75, 4:08 NY rallied to 912.25, then 5:04
> NY did a 50% pullback to 905.50 (to the tic there).
>
> 5:04 NY ES low @905.50, 7:13 NY rallied to 915.50,
> then 7:20 NY did a 50% pullback to 910.75 (50% was 910.50,
> missed by a tic).
>
> Three for three in an orderly fashion.
>
> Lets try another night:
> The rally Monday from 875 to 924 in the night session, then
> retraced at 5:05 NY to 894.75 very close to the .618 at
> 893.75, then rallied sharply.
>
> It that "you folks" making this happen :-)? We need our sleep
> here so not this side of the pond. don ewers
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 17, 2002 4:56 AM
> Subject: RE: [RT] Re: Fibs
>
>
> > Don,
> >
> > Its obvious to me...and not surprisingly, but you CAN'T change the
> > minds Of people who don't wish to change i.e. people who
> aren't open
> > minded. Many people on here...just like in real life, are
> merely here
> > to push their Views and denigrate others rather than learn. The
> > genuine learners are only
> > A tiny% on this list. Most everyone else simply wants the
> free lunch.
> >
> > I suggest continuing the Fibo discussion is pointless as it won't
> > EDUCATE the people who need educating. We both know as traders and
> > market analysts at the
> > Coal face that we see it time and time again. We also know
> its just one
> > tool.
> > We also know it can provide the key to putting on a more successful
> > trade.
> > These are all FACTS....by people who TRADE and MAKE MONEY.
> >
> > I suggest to you and everyone else...ISN'T THAT THE POINT
> OF BEING ON
> > THIS LIST ?????
> >
> > Adrian
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Don Ewers [mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Wednesday, 17 July 2002 12:15 PM
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: [RT] Re: Fibs
> > >
> > >
> > > I have repeated numerous times, Clyde's analysis proves nothing (
> > > flawed) since it does not register pivots that fall in
> the "right"
> > > levels to measure the real fib extensions or retracements (it
> > > measures all pivots, thus the flat line), what else would
> one expect
> > > from such an analysis? This was challenged a while back and
> > > numerous members stand by it move on, let it go, . . . . don ewers
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 8:39 PM
> > > Subject: [RT] Re:
> > >
> > >
> > > > There is a saying: "The plural of 'anecdotes' is not 'data'."
> > > > Just
> > > because
> > > > you can find a few instances on a chart proves you are
> handy with
> > > > charts.
> > > >
> > > > Clyde did a data-packed study of retracements and posted
> > > the results
> > > > in a very clear and incontrovertible chart which had
> the length of
> > > > retracements on 1 axis and the frequency of occurances on
> > > the other.
> > > > There was NO blip at the magical Fibonacci numbers. None.
> > > The data
> > > > line was perfectly
> > > smooth
> > > > from one side of the chart to the other with no clump at any
> > > > point.
> > > >
> > > > Fib retracements are a prism thru which to view the
> > > strength of market
> > > > moves. Fib numbers have no statistical basis in fact. You
> > > could just
> > > > as easily use sixths, eights, tenths, or any other
> > > fraction. And for
> > > > every chart you post should a perfect Fib retracement, I could
> > > > post one that
> > > shows
> > > > a perfect retracement based on PI, e, or any other rational
> > > > number.
> > > >
> > > > Kent
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 3:35 PM
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Clyde,
> > > > It is not a very few examples, as you have "continued to state".
> > > >
> > > > Your posisition seems to be, if you can't "program it", it does
> > > > not exist?
> > > >
> > > > I say, every day, in every time frame, I use it
> constantly, almost
> > > > more
> > > than
> > > > any other tool. What you call " isolated" occurs all the
> > > time, and it
> > > > is "not isolated"?
> > > >
> > > > Here are a couple of other weekly "fib things" that as you
> > > would say,
> > > > do
> > > not
> > > > exist that I recently supplied to one who inquired about
> > > retracements.
> > > > First two look pretty good to me (blue 50% and the red .618) of
> > > > the prior moves down so far. Would they show up on what you
> > > have tried to
> > > > program?
> > > >
> > > > Keep fighting this, but you are losing the battle from what I
> > > > normally trade, as it would appear may others. don ewers
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 11:22 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number
> crunching
> > > > doesn't
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > What I believe in and what I publish may be two entirely
> > > different
> > > > > things. You have never seen a published study by me that
> > > indicated
> > > > > that Gann Angle projection of time or price reversal
> > > points had any
> > > > > more significance than a random choice of points.
> > > > >
> > > > > My publication of Gann Angle points was just an
> > > observation and not
> > > > > an analysis.
> > > > >
> > > > > Why it is that you insist on selecting A VERY FEW examples of
> > > > > FIB relationships that seem to work a proof that such is the
> > > case I do
> > > > > not understand.
> > > > >
> > > > > I understand that many people use FIB relationships in
> > > discretionary
> > > > > trading as a guide to where price reversals might occur
> > > but I have
> > > > > yet to see anyone publish a trading system based on the
> > > FIB ratios
> > > > > that was successful. And, in view of the statistical
> > > data which has
> > > > > been accumulated it is highly unlikely that it will.
> > > > >
> > > > > My whole purpose of this insistence of looking at the
> > > statistics of
> > > > > Fib ratios is to try to prevent some of our newer and less
> > > > > experienced colleagues from jumping off onto a train that
> > > is headed
> > > > > for hell.
> > > > >
> > > > > Clyde
> > > > >
> > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > > > > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> > > > > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> > > > > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 6:48 AM
> > > > > Subject: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching
> > > > > doesn't
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Clyde and all those interested,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Have a look at the enclosed graph. It shows very
> > > clearly a perfect
> > > > > > example Of the implementation of Fibonacci ratio's at work,
> > > > > > and why Clyde's number crunching statistical tour de force
> > > > > > shows up nothing. This graph is a daily Bar chart
> of the Dow,
> > > > > > looking at the major high and the corrective rally
> we have had
> > > > > > this year. Notice that the corrective rally finished in a
> > > > > > classic Neely Triangle, as so many multi-wave corrective
> > > > > > structures do. Also notice That at that exact moment we
> > > > > > completed the 'e'
> > > wave of the
> > > > > > triangle was also the EXACT 61.8% retracement of the
> > > major decline
> > > > > > so far. Also note, that with almost Any swing
> > > methodology applied
> > > > > > to this market would never have caught this. If You go
> > > to a weekly
> > > > > > or monthly chart that termination point vanishes and so
> > > does The
> > > > > > 61.8% retracement, thereby seemingly proving Clyde's
> > > > > > assertion. Clyde, You do some great work, but it
> seems there
> > > > > > are 2
> > > anomalies
> > > > > > here..the first is You seem to believe in Gann
> angles but not
> > > > > > Fibonacci? That's is an unusual Combination to the say
> > > the least.
> > > > > > Secondly, don't let yourself fall into the camp University
> > > > > > academics have for the past decades of trying to
> prove markets
> > > > > > were Random and technical analysis had no validity by
> > > conducting
> > > > > > spurious
> > > and
> > > > > > erroneous Test. Doing a number crunching test...no
> matter how
> > > > > > detailed and intensive does NOT Prove something
> doesn't work
> > > > > > simply because
> > > your
> > > > > > test didn't show it.
> > > > > > This is why I sent this simple little graph. The
> combination
> > > > > > of
> > > Elliott
> > > > > > and Fibo working a treat. These aren't isolated
> examples, and
> > > > > > there is no one on the planet who could ever suggest we
> > > stopped at
> > > > > > that point because
> > > "everyone
> > > > > > looks at charts..so they were watching the 61.8% level".
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Adrian Pitt
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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> > > > > >
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> > > > >
> > > > >
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