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Clyde,
I have been through this argument before with another person. I
would have hoped with your age and experience you would have had a
more thoughtful conclusion.
1. Just because a technique does not work for you, but clearly works
for others, it is very bad to steer a person clear from taking a
particular
Line of thinking. Who knows what they may discover in time.
2. My experience and observation over 20 years is that every person
Must do the full 360 degree learning experience before they come to rest
at something that works for them.
3. The fact you may or may not be able to trade Fibonacci numbers or
Ratio's on their own to make a profit is largely irrelevant. It has
ZERO bearing on whether it is useful or not. My graph clearly showed
Its usefulness...and anyone on this list who was a trader would know
Exactly why it was useful, and an incredibly powerful indicator of what
Lay ahead.
4.If you wish to teach the newer people on this list, by al means show
And teach them what you can but also reinforce the perspective it comes
From. So in other words, if you try to apply Fibonacci ratio to every
Swing or even combination of swings you are wasting your time. I totally
Agree. That is useful information. Anyone with more than 5-10 years
Experience in the market knows you will only ever be using a blunt axe
If you try to apply one singular tool to a market on every level.
5. Every tool has its time and place of when to be used and when not to
be
Used. When you reach the point of knowing when, then you will be making
good
Money.
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Clyde Lee [mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Wednesday, 17 July 2002 2:23 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number
> crunching doesn't
>
>
> What I believe in and what I publish may be two entirely
> different things. You have never seen a published study by
> me that indicated that Gann Angle projection of time or price
> reversal points had any more significance than a random
> choice of points.
>
> My publication of Gann Angle points was just an observation
> and not an analysis.
>
> Why it is that you insist on selecting A VERY FEW examples
> of FIB relationships that seem to work a proof that such is
> the case I do not understand.
>
> I understand that many people use FIB relationships in
> discretionary trading as a guide to where price reversals
> might occur but I have yet to see anyone publish a trading
> system based on the FIB ratios that was successful. And, in
> view of the statistical data which has been accumulated it is
> highly unlikely that it will.
>
> My whole purpose of this insistence of looking at the
> statistics of Fib ratios is to try to prevent some of our
> newer and less experienced colleagues from jumping off onto a
> train that is headed for hell.
>
> Clyde
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 6:48 AM
> Subject: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching doesn't
>
>
> >
> > Clyde and all those interested,
> >
> > Have a look at the enclosed graph. It shows very clearly a perfect
> > example Of the implementation of Fibonacci ratio's at work, and why
> > Clyde's number crunching statistical tour de force shows up
> nothing.
> > This graph is a daily Bar chart of the Dow, looking at the
> major high
> > and the corrective rally we have had this year. Notice that the
> > corrective rally finished in a classic Neely Triangle, as so many
> > multi-wave corrective structures do. Also notice That at that exact
> > moment we completed the 'e' wave of the triangle was also the EXACT
> > 61.8% retracement of the major decline so far. Also note, that with
> > almost Any swing methodology applied to this market would
> never have
> > caught this. If You go to a weekly or monthly chart that
> termination
> > point vanishes and so does The 61.8% retracement, thereby seemingly
> > proving Clyde's assertion. Clyde, You do some great work,
> but it seems
> > there are 2 anomalies here..the first is You seem to
> believe in Gann
> > angles but not Fibonacci? That's is an unusual Combination
> to the say
> > the least. Secondly, don't let yourself fall into the camp
> University
> > academics have for the past decades of trying to prove markets were
> > Random and technical analysis had no validity by conducting
> spurious
> > and erroneous Test. Doing a number crunching test...no matter how
> > detailed and intensive does NOT Prove something doesn't work simply
> > because your test didn't show it. This is why I sent this simple
> > little graph. The combination of Elliott and Fibo working a treat.
> > These aren't isolated examples, and there is no one on the
> > planet who could ever suggest we stopped at that point
> because "everyone
> > looks at charts..so they were watching the 61.8% level".
> >
> > Adrian Pitt
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> > http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
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