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What I believe in and what I publish may be two entirely
different things. You have never seen a published study
by me that indicated that Gann Angle projection of time
or price reversal points had any more significance than
a random choice of points.
My publication of Gann Angle points was just an observation
and not an analysis.
Why it is that you insist on selecting A VERY FEW examples
of FIB relationships that seem to work a proof that such is the
case I do not understand.
I understand that many people use FIB relationships in
discretionary trading as a guide to where price reversals might
occur but I have yet to see anyone publish a trading system
based on the FIB ratios that was successful. And, in view
of the statistical data which has been accumulated it is highly
unlikely that it will.
My whole purpose of this insistence of looking at the statistics
of Fib ratios is to try to prevent some of our newer and less
experienced colleagues from jumping off onto a train that is
headed for hell.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 6:48 AM
Subject: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching doesn't
>
> Clyde and all those interested,
>
> Have a look at the enclosed graph. It shows very clearly a perfect
> example Of the implementation of Fibonacci ratio's at work, and why
> Clyde's number crunching statistical tour de force shows up nothing.
> This graph is a daily Bar chart of the Dow, looking at the major high
> and the corrective rally we have had this year. Notice that the
> corrective rally finished in a classic Neely Triangle, as so many
> multi-wave corrective structures do. Also notice That at that exact
> moment we completed the 'e' wave of the triangle was also the EXACT
> 61.8% retracement of the major decline so far. Also note, that with
> almost Any swing methodology applied to this market would never have
> caught this. If You go to a weekly or monthly chart that termination
> point vanishes and so does The 61.8% retracement, thereby seemingly
> proving Clyde's assertion. Clyde, You do some great work, but it seems
> there are 2 anomalies here..the first is You seem to believe in Gann
> angles but not Fibonacci? That's is an unusual Combination to the say
> the least. Secondly, don't let yourself fall into the camp University
> academics have for the past decades of trying to prove markets were
> Random and technical analysis had no validity by conducting spurious and
> erroneous Test. Doing a number crunching test...no matter how detailed
> and intensive does NOT Prove something doesn't work simply because your
> test didn't show it.
> This is why I sent this simple little graph. The combination of Elliott
> and Fibo working a treat. These aren't isolated examples, and there is
> no one on the
> planet who could ever suggest we stopped at that point because "everyone
> looks at charts..so they were watching the 61.8% level".
>
> Adrian Pitt
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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>
>
>
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>
>
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