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--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxx> wrote:
> BW,
>
> Looking at the charts you sent, I can say without any shadow of a
doubt that the 1-2 counts is incorrect...impossbile..and totally non
> sensicial..but it's a count you will see put on a chart.
Of course! We agree! Yet this count is the basis for all of the
AGET long term counts and calculations posted here and elsewhere.
> Now I can't say the other chart with a failed is correct because I
> haven't done wave counts on the S&P, but I can tell you the TRUE
> termination point of the bull trend is that September high NOT the
March high.
We agree again. My point is not to argue the details, but to point
out the very different implications of which high we choose.
>Almost 100% certainty on that. The clue? Just follow the price
action subsequent to each of the labelled points. Also the wave 2
label is totally out of proportion in both time and price to the wave
1....so eliminated immediately.
Yes again. If we allow counts that far out of proportion we are
denying the very fractal nature of the market which is at the core
of Elliott's theory.
Thanks for taking a look,
BW
>
> Adrian
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: B W [mailto:tradewynne@x...]
> > Sent: Friday, 12 July 2002 1:04 AM
> > To: realtraders
> > Subject: [RT] AGet EWave counts
> >
> >
> > Ewavers and AGET users,
> >
> > I wonder how you guys resolve the counts from the Y2K top(s).
> > To my way of thinking it's hard to see the AGET "1" down as
> > an impulse down. I understand GET only looks back X bars, so
> > what do you do when GET is clearly wrong? Check the
> > SpxFailed5th.gif. AGET counts the abc to 4 as "1." This
> > changes everything from there forward in the longer term
> > counts. See SpxFailed5thABC.gif.
> >
> > My next question for the ultra bears: if we are in .3 of 3
> > why are we seeing several of the best breadth ratios of the
> > last few years? The red sub-chart is the daily A-D ratio.
> >
> > Last, I know some count the first Y2K decline as a short 1,
> > followed by a larger 2. To me this is a complete distortion
> > of the basic patterns. Wave 2 is 2500% as long a 1. See
> > Spx2is2500%of1.gif.
> >
> > On a general note concerning Elliott: some of my best trading
> > periods ever were the result of pure Elliott Wave trading.
> > Moreover, some of my favorite systems attempt to quantify
> > basic Elliott Wave ideas (identify impulse vs corrective
> > swings and fade the corrections). I think there is value in
> > Elliott. All that said, over the years, I've evolved into
> > more of a mechanical trader. It's just less subjective and
> > less work. When you are on the right side of an EWave count
> > trading can be sweet, but when you've got it wrong you just
> > get killed. Look at Prechter.
> >
> > BW
> >
> >
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