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BW,
Looking at the charts you sent, I can say without any shadow of a doubt
that the 1-2 counts is incorrect...impossbile..and totally non
sensicial..but it's a count you will see put on a chart.
Now I can't say the other chart with a failed is correct because I
haven't done wave counts on the S&P, but I can tell you the TRUE
termination point of the bull trend is that September high NOT the March
high. Almost 100% certainty on that. The clue? Just follow the price
action subsequent to each of the labelled points. Also the wave 2 label
is totally out of proportion in both time and price to the wave 1....so
eliminated immediately.
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: B W [mailto:tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Friday, 12 July 2002 1:04 AM
> To: realtraders
> Subject: [RT] AGet EWave counts
>
>
> Ewavers and AGET users,
>
> I wonder how you guys resolve the counts from the Y2K top(s).
> To my way of thinking it's hard to see the AGET "1" down as
> an impulse down. I understand GET only looks back X bars, so
> what do you do when GET is clearly wrong? Check the
> SpxFailed5th.gif. AGET counts the abc to 4 as "1." This
> changes everything from there forward in the longer term
> counts. See SpxFailed5thABC.gif.
>
> My next question for the ultra bears: if we are in .3 of 3
> why are we seeing several of the best breadth ratios of the
> last few years? The red sub-chart is the daily A-D ratio.
>
> Last, I know some count the first Y2K decline as a short 1,
> followed by a larger 2. To me this is a complete distortion
> of the basic patterns. Wave 2 is 2500% as long a 1. See
> Spx2is2500%of1.gif.
>
> On a general note concerning Elliott: some of my best trading
> periods ever were the result of pure Elliott Wave trading.
> Moreover, some of my favorite systems attempt to quantify
> basic Elliott Wave ideas (identify impulse vs corrective
> swings and fade the corrections). I think there is value in
> Elliott. All that said, over the years, I've evolved into
> more of a mechanical trader. It's just less subjective and
> less work. When you are on the right side of an EWave count
> trading can be sweet, but when you've got it wrong you just
> get killed. Look at Prechter.
>
> BW
>
>
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