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I for one appreciate Tonys post of the long term charts. He does not need to
give recommendations on what to do, the charts are there too give a road
map, and spark your own ideas.
----- Original Message -----
From: "jeff97_98_1998" <jprroth@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, July 08, 2002 8:13 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: DJIA
> Tony,
>
> You pretty well covered all the possibilities.
> A bear market till 2014, yet it will be in a trading range,
> rather than a trending bear market.
> With ups and downs within the channel.
> You sound to me, like a professional anaylst on
> CNBC.
>
> Kinda like hot in the summer, cold in the winter.
> Temperatures for the next 12 years will tend to
> move within the extremes, maybe follow the norm.
> Hot some days, not so hot other days.
> No chart required.
>
>
> So with all this analysis and chart stuff,
> how does this help me trade?
> what should I do?
> how does this knowledge give me the edge over the next
> guy?
>
> How do you make a 12 year projection?
>
> thanks for the bantering.
>
> PS. what will gold be an ounce in 2014?
> how bout crude oil?
> will there be a cure for cancer?
> will Iraq exist with an american flag
> over the capital?
> will Hillary divorce Bill?
>
>
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Tony Pylypuk" <tpylypuk@xxxx> wrote:
> > Dear Jeff97_98_1998,
> >
> > I do not recommend anything. I only post what I observe from my
> charts.
> >
> > If the 2.5 year bear is to continue for the projected time-frame
> (to 2014), then absent an implosion of the World economy by reason of
> a cataclysmic event, it would seem that we may be in for a trading
> rather than trending market during that period, and the market may be
> expected to continue to bounce between the extended upper and lower
> bounds of the existing 2.5 year trend channel (as may redefined
> upwards and downwards with the passage of time).
> >
> > Assuming that to be true, it would follow that shorter term traders
> rather than longer term investors will come out on top for the
> duration.
> >
> > I note that a year or so ago Warren Buffett was of the opinion that
> the market would not resume its upward trend for several years (I
> recollect he put the end of the bear at 2009 +/-).
> >
> > I try not to compromise my rudimentary technical understanding of
> the market with my even less knowledgeable understanding of
> fundamental analysis. Nevertheless, my understanding of the
> fundamentals includes the following:
> >
> > Up here in Canada, the economy is roaring ahead, powered by export
> sales which are enhanced by the relative value of the CDN$/US$. Down
> below the 49th parallel in the USA, the economy seems to be
> recovering almost as handsomely.
> >
> > The economic data in America (and to a significant degree in Canada
> as well) has been driven mostly by consumer spending with the
> consequent effect of new highs in consumer debt. At some point the
> creditors of the consumers will demand repayment. As and when the
> creditors do so, will the consumer debtors be able to meet their
> demands? Time will tell if they can, and the consequences if they
> can't.
> >
> > While interest rates are low and may justify high P/E ratios, those
> ratios are above average historic levels justifying investment and
> earnings are currently subject to downward restatement as a result of
> the restatement of many corporate accounts following the debacle of
> Enron and WorldCom.
> >
> > FWIW. I remind you I am not licensed to say these things for
> profit.
> >
> > Tony Pylypuk
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: jeff97_98_1998
> > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > Sent: Monday, July 08, 2002 9:11 PM
> > Subject: [RT] Re: DJIA
> >
> >
> > bear market till 2014.
> >
> > So do you recommend shorting the sp, dow , nas ?
> >
> > short and hold for 12 years. Now that's an idea.
> >
> > wonder what my draw down would be?
> >
> > any thoughts on stop loss placement?
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Tony Pylypuk" <tpylypuk@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Attached are three charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
> > >
> > > Figure 4 (indu-02-07-08(4).gif) is the picture from late 1976
> to
> > the present.
> > >
> > > Figure 5 (indu-02-07-08(5).gif) is the picture from 1999 +/- to
> the
> > present.
> > >
> > > Figure 6 (indu-02-07-08(6).gif) is the present.
> > >
> > > What they show, especially Figure 6, is that since mid-June,
> 2002,
> > when INDU penetrated its 20 year support trend line as defined by
> the
> > intraday lows of July 8, 1982 and November 23, 1994, for the
> first
> > time since it was first penetrated during the aftermath of
> September
> > 11, 2001, INDU has been trading between the bounds of that
> support
> > trend line (now acting as resistance) and an alternate support
> trend
> > line drawn through the intraday lows of July 8, 1982, and
> September
> > 21, 2001.
> > >
> > > If the alternate support trend line is broken (and I would note
> > that it remains inviolate even intraday), the next support is in
> the
> > vicinity of 8641 (a 38.2% retracement of the expansion from
> November,
> > 1994) and 8350 which represents the extended bottom of the 2.5
> year
> > bear channel (excluding the downside violation of that channel
> > following September 11, 2001).
> > >
> > > As previously noted, one of my Fibonacci studies suggests a
> bear
> > market to 2014 (or to an equivalent price point in time - with
> thanks
> > to Earl Adamy who in a recent post cogently observed that bear
> > markets can take on one of (at least) two personalities - they
> may
> > fall precipitously as in 1929 and 1987 or they may meander
> downwards
> > and upwards without new significant highs and mostly sideways for
> an
> > extended period of time).
> > >
> > > FWIW.
> > >
> > > As always, I remind you I am not licensed to say these things
> for
> > profit.
> > >
> > > Tony Pylypuk
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> >
> >
> >
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> Service.
>
>
>
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>
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>
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