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Hi Tony:
Just to reply to your fine trendline charts on the DJIA. To be
the devils
advocate I drew this l/s line used in Metastock from the '87 lows and
it could be interpreted by some that the trend is still intact, that must
be
a very unpopular view about now. All trendlines are subject to
interpretation by both the creator and the user. Thanks for your
fine post.
Tony Pylypuk wrote:
Attached
are three charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Figure
4 (indu-02-07-08(4).gif) is the picture from late 1976 to the present. Figure
5 (indu-02-07-08(5).gif) is the picture from 1999 +/- to the present. Figure
6 (indu-02-07-08(6).gif) is the present. What
they show, especially Figure 6, is that since mid-June, 2002, when INDU
penetrated its 20 year support trend line as defined by the intraday lows
of July 8, 1982 and November 23, 1994, for the first time since it was
first penetrated during the aftermath of September 11, 2001, INDU has been
trading between the bounds of that support trend line (now acting as resistance)
and an alternate support trend line drawn through the intraday lows of
July 8, 1982, and September 21, 2001. If
the alternate support trend line is broken (and I would note that it remains
inviolate even intraday), the next support is in the vicinity of 8641 (a
38.2% retracement of the expansion from November, 1994) and 8350 which
represents the extended bottom of the 2.5 year bear channel (excluding
the downside violation of that channel following September 11, 2001). As
previously noted, one of my Fibonacci studies suggests a bear market to
2014 (or to an equivalent price point in time - with thanks to Earl Adamy
who in a recent post cogently observed that bear markets can take on one
of (at least) two personalities - they may fall precipitously as in 1929
and 1987 or they may meander downwards and upwards without new significant
highs and mostly sideways for an extended period of time). FWIW. As
always, I remind you I am not licensed to say these things for profit. Tony
Pylypuk
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