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RE: [RT] 10 Year Stock Market Perspective



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<A 
href="http://business.missouri.edu/Degrees/Courses/finance/West/fin340/25_BEAR_MARKETS_2001.doc";>http://business.missouri.edu/Degrees/Courses/finance/West/fin340/25_BEAR_MARKETS_2001.doc
 
 
25 BEAR MARKETS OVER THE 
PAST 100 YEARS
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<SPAN 
style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">We have had 26 Bear Markets since 1900 for a 
total of 32 years with an average decline of 32%.<SPAN 
style="mso-spacerun: yes">  A Bear Market is a period of significant 
price decline composed of two or more Bear Legs. We have had as many as eight 
Bear Legs, but often have had only 3 to 4, and by definition 2 is the 
minimum.  Bear Markets may occur 
because of basic economic changes in expected profits, inflation, monetary 
policy, yield curves or spreads, recessions, or wars, i.e., either less expected 
return or more risk.
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<SPAN 
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt">Most of the following data 
are from Bear Markets, Harry D. Shultz (Prentice Hall 
1964).
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      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">Date
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      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>Dow Jones 
      IndustrialsPercentage DeclineFrom Peak to 
      Trough
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      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>Length of 
      TimefromPeak to Trough
  
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      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1900
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      align=center>32%
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      align=center>1937
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>52%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>56
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1946
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>25%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>37
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1953
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>14%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>9
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1957
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>20%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>6
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1960
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>18%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>10
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1962
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>29%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>6
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1966
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>26%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>8
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1969
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>36%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>17
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1973
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>46%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>22
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1976
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>27%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>17
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1980
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>24%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>20
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1987
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>36%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>2
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>1991
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: center" 
      align=center>15%
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right>3
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; HEIGHT: 12pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt">months
  
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap colSpan=2>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt"><SPAN 
      style="mso-spacerun: yes">                   
      2000   <SPAN 
      style="COLOR: #666699">(11,723 &#8211; 8,236)<SPAN 
      style="mso-spacerun: yes">              
      30%   <SPAN 
      style="COLOR: #666699">(???)
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: right" 
      align=right><SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt">20
    <TD 
    style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 1pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; PADDING-LEFT: 1pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; PADDING-TOP: 1pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 14.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" 
    vAlign=bottom noWrap>
      <SPAN 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt">months
<FONT 
size=2> 
<FONT 
size=2> 
<SPAN 
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt">According to the DJIA, the 
average length of these 26 Bear Markets was 15 months, with a range of 2 months 
to 56 months; the range of decline was 14% to 90%, with a mean of 32%.<SPAN 
style="mso-spacerun: yes">  Its 508 point decline (22.6%) on 
10/19/87 was the largest single-day decline. <SPAN 
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> The Bull Market from 1991 to 1999 was the 
DIJA&#8217;s largest sustained increase. The DIJA peaked at 11,723 on 01/14/00, and 
its subsequent bear low was 8,236 on 9/21/01.<SPAN 
style="mso-spacerun: yes">  
<SPAN 
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt"> <SPAN 
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Common 
Bear Market warning signs include high stock prices, high trading volume, tight 
credit, low bond prices, high interest rates, high industrial production, high 
inventories, labor shortages, high commodity prices, and high 
confidence.



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