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Dear IE,
I have no disagreement with your comments except that there have been
many 10 year periods that have beaten inflation. And I hope I do not
give the impression we are going to see the 2000 highs real soon. The
rationality of the PE properly adjusted for growth, current ratios
that are markedly positive and inventory turnover, etc. is returning.
Graham will live on.
What I hope we see over the next year is a more stable market that
will do uptrends, downtrends and sideway movements over reasonable
periods rather than just prolonged downtrends.
Hey, I am short the S&P and the Nas and someone sent me a post that
Bin Laden had been captured and the markets were limit up. Nice
joke, but it could happen. In the meantime I take the mechanical
futures trades day by day and keep the set investments based upon
historical merit that have not changed [selective mutual funds , zero
coupon bonds, certain Blue Chips, CD's and the like].
>From a certain vantage point , Berkshire Hathaway has come away
relatively unscathed with its high PE and growth. Others that have
been overlooked with the similar growth credentials will again appear.
Sincerely,
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: Infernal Elk <infernalelk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [MedianLine] Re: Re: [RT] 10 Year Stock Market
Perspective
Date: 07/09/2002 00:09am
>> The 10 year comparisons were just an aside to show how even at
>> these levels inflation was beaten handsomely and who is to say it
>> will not be beaten again over the next 10 years vs. the DJIA
>> calamity forecast.
john, i'm not a market historian by a long shot, but the 10 year
period you cite is, to say the least, quite unusual in history. i
don't necessarily agree with a total calamity scenario, but i also do
not believe that extrapolation from the last 10 years is a reason to
be overly sanguine -- there are many structural problems in our
economy (and globally) which mitigate against us seeing the 2000 highs
any time soon.
how long will that be? dunno. as a trader, i don't worry about 2014
-- yet. but i also don't have expectations of moonshots that so many
giddy people had in 1999.
- *lk
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