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Bondo,
Agree with all of the comments made. It was inserted as part of the
Wachovia source disseratation in which no new committments were being
made yet.The source is heavily in bonds, cash and prior Blue Chip
investments which they expect to turn.
While this is a more laborious bear, one would be foolish to sell
untainted sound companies which usually recover. Such was the case
for me in 1987. While there is little parallel between then and now,
I did well with covered calls and am doing the same now in isolated
cases.
As a fact my commodity trading has not been hit at all compared to my
general portfolio. But there are enough extremists out there that it
is just a matter of time for a turn. The Fed is OK and follow the
trend [short for now where indicated].
Lastly, one of the worst ten year periods [not the worst perhaps but
bad enough]a mutual fund family I selected demonstrated terrific
resiliency on a ten year performance 1970 to 1980 withdrawing 7% per
year and winding up with capital far greater than initially invested.
Sincerely,
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] 10 Year Stock Market Perspective
Date: 07/13/2002 05:12am
> >>> 1. Do not fight the Fed
All the monetary aggregates are significantly lower since Dec 2001.
> >>>
> >
> >>> 2. Do not fight the trend
The trend is clearly down for the past 2 and a half years. In fact
the SPX and NDX haven't been this low since 1997. That's half of the
10 year pespective.
> >>>
> >
> >>> 3. Beware the crowd at extremes.
Everyone is still looking to buy. Although the VIX spiked a bit, the
put/calls really haven't done much. Are any of the high profile
gurus (Biggs, AJCohen, Galvin, Stack, Harding, etc) bearish here?
Nope.
--- In realtraders@xxxx, sue crew <screwy@xxxx> wrote:
> What about the ageing population? In my mind this is what is going
to
> keep the stock market down for years.
> Bonds , Annuity income and low risk returns will be king. Risk
aversion
> and wealth protection are the key, not
> wealth creation , particularly when we talk about the masses.
>
> Infernal Elk wrote:
>
> >john, if you look at the major averages since march 2000, you might
> >say that we've ALREADY been in a bear market for at least 2
years. so
> >the low end of the duration you cite (9 months) is already out of
the
> >question.
> >
> >apart from reciting a bunch of statistics, what are you saying
here?
> >what "odds" are you referring to? what period(s) are you comparing
> >against?
> >
> >- *lk
> >
> >
> >>> I can not comment on the DJIA forecast but I do know this:
> >>>
> >
> >>> 6/3/92 to 6/3/02
> >>>
> >
> >>> DJIA went from 3,406.99 to 9,709.79 or up 185% annualized at
11.04%
> >>>
> >
> >>> Nas went from 589.93 to 1,562.56 or up 164.8% annualized at
10.23%
> >>>
> >
> >>> S&P 500 went from 414.59 to 1040.68 or up 151.01% annualized at
9.64%
> >>>
> >
> >>> Wilshire 500 went from 4,024.34 to 9,865.09 or up 145.14%
annualized
> >>> at 9.38%
> >>>
> >
> >>> Inflation [CPI] went from 140.20 to 179.80 or up 28.25%
annualized at
> >>> 2.52%
> >>>
> >
> >>> It is entirely within some realm of possibility that the worst
case
> >>> scenario on the DJIA may play out but one must look at the
odds. From
> >>> studies I recall major bear markets can last up to 17 years and
we
> >>> have not had too many of those. Most recent bear markets have
been of
> >>> shorter duration as low as 9 months to 3 years.
> >>>
> >
> >>> When pessimism is that great it is an extreme. There are 3
things I
> >>> have learned that I think apply here.
> >>>
> >
> >>> 1. Do not fight the Fed
> >>>
> >
> >>> 2. Do not fight the trend
> >>>
> >
> >>> 3. Beware the crowd at extremes.
> >>>
> >
> >>> I give credit to Wachovia for the bulk of this info.
> >>>
> >
> >>> Sincerely,
> >>>
> >
> >>> John
> >>>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> >realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
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