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Dear IE,
Sorry if I generated any confusion. My comments re. odds were
directed at the DJIA Bear post.
I certainly agree we have past the 2 year marker but this time frame
we are currently in reminds me of a similar 3 year period in the
early 70's.Practically every Mutual Fund went negative and then there
was an upswing.
The 10 year comparisons were just an aside to show how even at these
levels inflation was beaten handsomely and who is to say it will not
be beaten again over the next 10 years vs. the DJIA calamity forecast.
Sincerely,
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: Infernal Elk <infernalelk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] 10 Year Stock Market Perspective
Date: 07/08/2002 11:49pm
john, if you look at the major averages since march 2000, you might
say that we've ALREADY been in a bear market for at least 2 years. so
the low end of the duration you cite (9 months) is already out of the
question.
apart from reciting a bunch of statistics, what are you saying here?
what "odds" are you referring to? what period(s) are you comparing
against?
- *lk
>> I can not comment on the DJIA forecast but I do know this:
>> 6/3/92 to 6/3/02
>> DJIA went from 3,406.99 to 9,709.79 or up 185% annualized at
11.04%
>> Nas went from 589.93 to 1,562.56 or up 164.8% annualized at 10.23%
>> S&P 500 went from 414.59 to 1040.68 or up 151.01% annualized at
9.64%
>> Wilshire 500 went from 4,024.34 to 9,865.09 or up 145.14%
annualized
>> at 9.38%
>> Inflation [CPI] went from 140.20 to 179.80 or up 28.25%
annualized at
>> 2.52%
>> It is entirely within some realm of possibility that the worst
case
>> scenario on the DJIA may play out but one must look at the odds.
>From
>> studies I recall major bear markets can last up to 17 years and
we
>> have not had too many of those. Most recent bear markets have
been of
>> shorter duration as low as 9 months to 3 years.
>> When pessimism is that great it is an extreme. There are 3 things
I
>> have learned that I think apply here.
>> 1. Do not fight the Fed
>> 2. Do not fight the trend
>> 3. Beware the crowd at extremes.
>> I give credit to Wachovia for the bulk of this info.
>> Sincerely,
>> John
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