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according to my real estate friends MORE people
are
now into LARGE down payments for their homes,, instead
of
lowdown payments,, the thinking before was to invest the
rest
Ben
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
BobsKC
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, July 13, 2002 3:51
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] 10 Year Stock Market
Perspective
Many of the 50-60 folks who are coming into retirement have had
most of their savings chewed up by this bear market and they won't give up
trying to get it back. For a 30 year old, bonds could be a viable
solution but when you have 5 years left to work and your retirement has gone
from $500K to $50K, you will try to get it back and there are two legal means
to do that. The markets and Vegas. Add to this the current
interest rate returns and people are faced with less income than the real
inflation rate. The excesses of the 90's are being wrung out but it
isn't a fast process and it most certainly isn't a painless process.
With each passing week, I see more and more truly good values in the equity
market but I still see many others which are priced far beyond any reasonable
common sense. All is doom and gloom now .. people are simply sick of the
stock market. Shorters are thinking it can't end and fear is
rampant. Not saying we are at a bottom but the signals are beginning to
light up. Good trading,BobAt 12:51 PM
7/13/2002 +1000, you wrote:
What about the ageing population?
In my mind this is what is going to keep the stock market down for
years.Bonds , Annuity income and low risk returns will be king. Risk
aversion and wealth protection are the key, not wealth creation ,
particularly when we talk about the masses.Infernal Elk wrote:
john, if you look at the major averages since march 2000, you
might
say that we've ALREADY been in a bear market for at least 2 years.
so
the low end of the duration you cite (9 months) is already out of the
question.
apart from reciting a bunch of statistics, what are you saying here?
what "odds" are you referring to? what period(s) are you
comparing
against?
- *lk
I can not comment on the DJIA forecast but I do know this:
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
6/3/92 to 6/3/02
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
DJIA went from 3,406.99 to 9,709.79 or up 185% annualized at
11.04%
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
Nas went from 589.93 to 1,562.56 or up 164.8% annualized at
10.23%
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
S&P 500 went from 414.59 to 1040.68 or up 151.01%
annualized at 9.64%
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
Wilshire 500 went from 4,024.34 to 9,865.09 or up 145.14%
annualized
at 9.38%
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
Inflation [CPI] went from 140.20 to 179.80 or up 28.25%
annualized at
2.52%
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
It is entirely within some realm of possibility that the worst
case
scenario on the DJIA may play out but one must look at the odds.
>From
studies I recall major bear markets can last up to 17 years and we
have not had too many of those. Most recent bear markets have been
of
shorter duration as low as 9 months to 3 years.
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
When pessimism is that great it is an extreme. There are 3
things I
have learned that I think apply here.
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
1. Do not fight the Fed
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
2. Do not fight the trend
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
3. Beware the crowd at extremes.
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
I give credit to Wachovia for the bulk of this info.
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
Sincerely,
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
John
<FONT
face="Courier New, Courier">
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