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bear market till 2014.
So do you recommend shorting the sp, dow , nas ?
short and hold for 12 years. Now that's an idea.
wonder what my draw down would be?
any thoughts on stop loss placement?
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "Tony Pylypuk" <tpylypuk@xxxx> wrote:
> Attached are three charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
>
> Figure 4 (indu-02-07-08(4).gif) is the picture from late 1976 to
the present.
>
> Figure 5 (indu-02-07-08(5).gif) is the picture from 1999 +/- to the
present.
>
> Figure 6 (indu-02-07-08(6).gif) is the present.
>
> What they show, especially Figure 6, is that since mid-June, 2002,
when INDU penetrated its 20 year support trend line as defined by the
intraday lows of July 8, 1982 and November 23, 1994, for the first
time since it was first penetrated during the aftermath of September
11, 2001, INDU has been trading between the bounds of that support
trend line (now acting as resistance) and an alternate support trend
line drawn through the intraday lows of July 8, 1982, and September
21, 2001.
>
> If the alternate support trend line is broken (and I would note
that it remains inviolate even intraday), the next support is in the
vicinity of 8641 (a 38.2% retracement of the expansion from November,
1994) and 8350 which represents the extended bottom of the 2.5 year
bear channel (excluding the downside violation of that channel
following September 11, 2001).
>
> As previously noted, one of my Fibonacci studies suggests a bear
market to 2014 (or to an equivalent price point in time - with thanks
to Earl Adamy who in a recent post cogently observed that bear
markets can take on one of (at least) two personalities - they may
fall precipitously as in 1929 and 1987 or they may meander downwards
and upwards without new significant highs and mostly sideways for an
extended period of time).
>
> FWIW.
>
> As always, I remind you I am not licensed to say these things for
profit.
>
> Tony Pylypuk
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