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In a message dated 7/4/02 8:15:52 AM Eastern Daylight Time, apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
I believe the crux of the problem is EXACTLY that cycles expand and contract, and sometimes in a
chaotic manner...that's why markets are so hard and crazy sometimes. Its what right and left translation
of cycles are all about. We need a technique that can monitor the dominant cycles at any one point in
time and then plot the curve as they change. That way you can see how the cycles expand and contract.
This is basically what John Ehlers work does. Not entirely successfully mind you..so don't come attacking that.
Only constructive comments please.
I have done this. Plotting the last 10 years worth of market movement over 4 different time cycles looking for a pattern to emerge where one could predict the expansion and contraction of cycles.
Certainly a ten year time frame is not enough data for the larger cycles which take years to develop, but enough for the smaller cycles I was interested in. The 10 year time frame provided about 40 complete cycles to analyze...statistically valid I believe.
Perhaps what one needs to do, is have a computer analyze and sum the 4 cycles in this case and generate a composite and see if it fits the true market curve.
Appropriate weightings for each time frame (cycle) would also need to be applied.
Perhaps I missed it, but even on the smaller time frames relative to larger, I was unable to 'see' a pattern.
Plus, what could 'predict' short term but extreme magnitude contractions or expansions such as what occured in 29, 87, 95 - 03 etc.
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