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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=delta88343@xxxxxxx
href="mailto:delta88343@xxxxxxx";>delta88343@xxxxxxx
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 9:39
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the
Hurst cycle?
<FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">In a message dated 7/3/02 5:16:23 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
jwhite43@xxxxxxx writes:Exactly
what I was referring to, but not as eloquently described. Now, do
human events effect market cycles or do the cosmic cycles effect human
events?
<FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">
<FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">NW: Or are they coincidental as a result of a third
force? That was the conclusion of Edward R. Dewey, founder of the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles. <FONT
face=arial,helvetica><FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">
<BLOCKQUOTE
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face=arial,helvetica><FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Cheers,Norman
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TYPE="CITE">I have followed the discussion on Hurst cycles with silence but
now Ibelieve it is time to speak up.The Hurst book actually has some
very significant content however his basicpremise has been proven to be
incorrect. Hurst presents several statementswith out verification. For
example " The impact of wars, global financialcrisis, and all other
similar events on market price action is utterlynegligible." It has been
shown through the application of chaotic modelsthat these impulses do
have an impact although they are limited in theirduration.The use of
static cycles to forecast future price movement is also doomed
tofailure. There have been many attempts to duplicate and forecast
priceaction with composite static cycles and all have failed simply
because themarket is not composed of static cycles. Even an attempt to
determine thecurrent dominant cycles will fail because the cycles will
change due tolateset conditions. The new information may or may not be
in the directionof the old cycles.A much more likely composition, also
supported by studiesof chaotic models, is that the market is composed of
dynamic cycles withdiminishing amplitude. Since these cycles are always
changing, due to thelatest impulse to impact the market, they are
predictable only in the veryshort term. The real value of Hurst's work
is to show that profits aremaximized by short term
trading.To
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