Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?

[delta88343@xxxxxxx]

In a message dated 7/3/02 5:16:23 PM Eastern Daylight Time, jwhite43@xxxxxxx writes:

Exactly what I was referring to, but not as eloquently described. 

Now, do human events effect market cycles or do the cosmic cycles effect human events?

I have followed the discussion on Hurst cycles with silence but now I
believe it is time to speak up.
The Hurst book actually has some very significant content however his basic
premise has been proven to be incorrect. Hurst presents several statements
with out verification. For example " The impact of wars, global financial
crisis, and all other similar events on market price action is utterly
negligible." It has been shown through the application of chaotic models
that these impulses do have an impact although they are limited in their
duration.
The use of static cycles to forecast future price movement is also doomed to
failure. There have been many attempts to duplicate and forecast price
action with composite static cycles and all have failed simply because the
market is not composed of static cycles. Even an attempt to determine the
current dominant cycles will fail because the cycles will change due to
lateset conditions. The new information may or may not be in the direction
of the old cycles.A much more likely composition, also supported by studies
of chaotic models, is that the market is composed of dynamic cycles with
diminishing amplitude. Since these cycles are always changing, due to the
latest impulse to impact the market, they are predictable only in the very
short term. The real value of Hurst's work is to show that profits are
maximized by short term trading.









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