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Whether the cycle that is projected is early a bit
or late a bit with respect
the real INFLECTION of the Centered Moving Average
is not all that
important.
What Hurst was trying to demonstrate and what I
hope we are beginning
to see a bit of is that even though the projections
may be off a bit in time
or price, when prices move significantly outside
the projected channels
then that is a VERY LOW RISK point at which trading
should take place.
Later I will post some stuff on the DX and indicate
just how we can improve
our estimates of where the next inflection point
will be by comparing the
rate of change of the projection to rate of change
of the CMAs at prior
inflections. Of course we will have to wait a
couple of weeks to see
if that is correct BUT if it is then we certainly
should be buying dollars.
REMEMBER, we are not trying to project prices --
God forbid as that has
been shown to be a death trap -- but are trying to
project areas in which
prices move SO FAR OUT of the "norm" that
exceptional trading
opportunities exist.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - -Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=delta88343@xxxxxxx
href="mailto:delta88343@xxxxxxx";>delta88343@xxxxxxx
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 8:35
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the
Hurst cycle?
<FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Clyde,Your work is certainly noteworthy and
deserves a lot of respect. I wish I had 1/10th the knowledge you
have.But from my limited experience and knowledge of cycles, how would
such a system, or any cycle system for that matter, take into consideration
that cycles expand and contract from both the smaller and larger cycles that
surround the cyclical time frame in question.It is from this phenomena
that I have always attributed to projected cycle points being late or early.
As many have posted before on RT, and applies to all cycle work I
would imagine, since I've seen the best cycle work from individuals on this
list and others be wrong at times (or should we say late or early more
appropriately). As soon as a point is late or early, all ask "what happend?"
Don't you hate that?I know I
do.ThanksTo
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