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But
Clyde, your own web pages show that as you change your cycle length from 150 to
160 to 170
it
completely changes your inflexion point, and therefore your ability to define
when prices are
way
out of balance. Even just that small change from 150 to 170 completely
changed your
future
projected path of prices. So I don't understand how you can say it doesn't
matter whether
the
cycle is a bit late or early? Logic says that if you could be that
inaccurate and still make money,
then
something isn't quite right.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
I
believe the crux of the problem is EXACTLY that cycles expand and contract, and
sometimes in a
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>chaotic manner...that's why markets are so hard and crazy sometimes. Its
what right and left translation
of
cycles are all about. We need a technique that can monitor the dominant
cycles at any one point in
time
and then plot the curve as they change. That way you can see how the
cycles expand and contract.
This
is basically what John Ehlers work does. Not entirely successfully mind
you..so don't come attacking that.
Only
constructive comments please.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Adrian
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Clyde Lee
[mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx] Sent: Thursday, 4 July 2002 11:45
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] What
happened to the Hurst cycle?
Whether the cycle that is projected is early a
bit or late a bit with respect
the real INFLECTION of the Centered Moving
Average is not all that
important.
What Hurst was trying to demonstrate and what I
hope we are beginning
to see a bit of is that even though the
projections may be off a bit in time
or price, when prices move significantly outside
the projected channels
then that is a VERY LOW RISK point at which
trading should take place.
Later I will post some stuff on the DX and
indicate just how we can improve
our estimates of where the next inflection point
will be by comparing the
rate of change of the projection to rate of
change of the CMAs at prior
inflections. Of course we will have to wait
a couple of weeks to see
if that is correct BUT if it is then we certainly
should be buying dollars.
REMEMBER, we are not trying to project prices --
God forbid as that has
been shown to be a death trap -- but are trying
to project areas in which
prices move SO FAR OUT of the "norm" that
exceptional trading
opportunities exist.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - -Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=delta88343@xxxxxxx
href="mailto:delta88343@xxxxxxx";>delta88343@xxxxxxx
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 8:35
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the
Hurst cycle?
<FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Clyde,Your work is certainly noteworthy and
deserves a lot of respect. I wish I had 1/10th the knowledge you
have.But from my limited experience and knowledge of cycles, how
would such a system, or any cycle system for that matter, take into
consideration that cycles expand and contract from both the smaller and
larger cycles that surround the cyclical time frame in question.It
is from this phenomena that I have always attributed to projected cycle
points being late or early. As many have posted before on RT, and
applies to all cycle work I would imagine, since I've seen the best cycle
work from individuals on this list and others be wrong at times (or should
we say late or early more appropriately). As soon as a point is late or
early, all ask "what happend?" Don't you hate that?I know I
do.ThanksTo unsubscribe from this group,
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