|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Ira,
Your question is a very good one. Back in mid 1970's I did a
lot of work trying to use that concept.
On the attached I did a Fourier study to see what the cycles are
and it seemed that 59, 73, and 123 were strong enough to warrant
as being treated with some TLC.
The chart shows the Centered Moving Averages (CMA) for these 3
time periods (daily stuff by the way) and then the full cycle advanced
values of the CMAs. The CMAs were computed with length of 1/2
cycle but advance was full cycle from CMA locations.
This will give an excellent idea of why that concept needs a lot of
work.
Don't know that what I'm trying now is going to be the answer but
it seems to give better results than this approach.
If this approach has significant validity then we are still looking
at a DOWN market.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ira Tunik" <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 12:46 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> What happened to Hurst's extentions of the offset moving averages to
predict
> price and time? Ira
>
> Clyde Lee wrote:
>
> > More likely the parameters for generation of the prediction of
> > the cycle were wrong.
> >
> > We will have to wait for the Centered Moving Averages to catch
> > up with the data to make the kind of judgment you have made
> > with insufficient data.
> >
> > Remember, the REALTIME values for the Hurst channels are an
> > ATTEMPT to predict what the real values of the CMAs will be
> > and that ATTEMPT to estimate can be really wrong at times.
> >
> > Everyone needs to understand that the attempt to estimate the
> > realtime CMA values is strictly that -- an attempt. Currently we
> > are using classical Fourier analysis and have limited ourselves
> > to only 3 components to construct envelopes. We may be
> > using too many or too few -- at this stage in development I
> > do not have a good feeling of what it takes to better match the
> > eventual values of the CMAs but you can bet we are still
> > working on it.
> >
> > Clyde
> >
> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 12:25 PM
> > Subject: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> >
> > > I guess we fell into the 10% of the time its wrong.
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
>
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Attachment:
Description: "junk.gif"
|