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I have followed the discussion on Hurst cycles with silence but now I
believe it is time to speak up.
The Hurst book actually has some very significant content however his basic
premise has been proven to be incorrect. Hurst presents several statements
with out verification. For example " The impact of wars, global financial
crisis, and all other similar events on market price action is utterly
negligible." It has been shown through the application of chaotic models
that these impulses do have an impact although they are limited in their
duration.
The use of static cycles to forecast future price movement is also doomed to
failure. There have been many attempts to duplicate and forecast price
action with composite static cycles and all have failed simply because the
market is not composed of static cycles. Even an attempt to determine the
current dominant cycles will fail because the cycles will change due to
lateset conditions. The new information may or may not be in the direction
of the old cycles.A much more likely composition, also supported by studies
of chaotic models, is that the market is composed of dynamic cycles with
diminishing amplitude. Since these cycles are always changing, due to the
latest impulse to impact the market, they are predictable only in the very
short term. The real value of Hurst's work is to show that profits are
maximized by short term trading.
Jim White
----- Original Message -----
From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 10:34 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> More likely the parameters for generation of the prediction of
> the cycle were wrong.
>
> We will have to wait for the Centered Moving Averages to catch
> up with the data to make the kind of judgment you have made
> with insufficient data.
>
> Remember, the REALTIME values for the Hurst channels are an
> ATTEMPT to predict what the real values of the CMAs will be
> and that ATTEMPT to estimate can be really wrong at times.
>
> Everyone needs to understand that the attempt to estimate the
> realtime CMA values is strictly that -- an attempt. Currently we
> are using classical Fourier analysis and have limited ourselves
> to only 3 components to construct envelopes. We may be
> using too many or too few -- at this stage in development I
> do not have a good feeling of what it takes to better match the
> eventual values of the CMAs but you can bet we are still
> working on it.
>
> Clyde
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
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>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 12:25 PM
> Subject: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
>
>
> > I guess we fell into the 10% of the time its wrong.
> >
> >
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> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
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