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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
M.
Simms
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, June 30, 2002 9:58 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Investing now &
cycles #1
Wow - nice
chart.....but am I wrong on this:
The Dow Jones
essentially WENT NOWHERE between 1965 and 1983, a period of 18 YEARs
??
yes, it rocked
and rolled in between, but I am talking buy and hold here.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Could the
market of 2002 -> 2020 be in for a similar fate ?
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Yes, that is
what I have been saying. Great market for traders. Terrible market for
long term investors.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Cheers,
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Norman
<FONT
face=Arial size=2>
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<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: wavemechanic
[mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Sunday, June 30, 2002 12:25
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
Investing now & cycles #1
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx
To: <A
title=REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, June 29, 2002 1:07
PM
Subject: [RT] Investing now &
cycles #1
Yes, repeating cycle is absolutely correct.It
proved to me many times that not watching TV, not reading newspapers, not
applying fundamentals or geopolitical events but following very long,
long & intermediate cycles will keep your investments on right
side.In fall of 1999 in search of irregular B- wave top
found chapter on Benner- Fibonacci cycle in book that I
purchased 13 years ago (nice FIBO #) . After study I was amazed of its
accuracy. The theory was developed in 1875 almost 124 yrs ago &
predicted all major market swings & crashes incl., 1929, 1987 well
known to us short term mortals.At that point chart ended as low in
1987. I applied same methodology to that chart. It told me
that we should have low in 1995 (market made low in Dec 1994, 1 month
before 1995), then rally to 2000 (march 2000 top in most bubble up
Nasdaq index). I shared this chart with one of member of this group
Howard Bernstein. At the time people would stone me to death for
such forecast, so I keep it for my own use. Accordingly I adjusted my
business by trimming capital spending & expenses & saving cash
to survive downturn. At the time my competitors expended by borrowing.
After 9-11 received few call from them if I want to buy them out. Few
months later got calls from their lenders if I do not want take over
inventory from liquidation.Benner chart served me well in business as
well shorting stocks. As You can see Benner was not influenced by
media, geopolitical events or new unknown to him technology
discovery.Man is genius. His next low point is 2003In attached
Benner-Fibocycle pdf written by Robert Prechtor he mention Benners
work on page #8 chart #6.I named this chart "$milloin dollar
chart." If You CEO of big corp. & have knowledge of power of this
chart You would not made capital expansions, preserve cash, stop
taking more debt & saved millions of shareholders
investments $$$ in Your company.From shorter cycles, Martin
Armstrong 8.6 yr. cycle due Nov 2002 predicted in 1999 where he said
every 8.6 years there is GLOBAL Capital shift in markets. At this
point we know world is parting away from US $$$$$. His date could be
acceleration or low for dollar. That remain to be
seen.Intermediate cycles, Sun-Mars cycle 25.8 months (110-112
weeks) developed by James Brock of Triad Research and lately
rediscovered by researcher Steve Puetz.This cycle is part of
Armstrong cycle (4 X 25.8 months =103.2 m =8.6 yr.) & points
to bad fall/ winter of 2002then most important is famous 9 month
cycle due 6-21-2002.if You take 9-21-01 & add 9 months =
6-21-02.9 month cycle is part of Armstrong 8.6 yr. cycle12 X 8.6
months = 103.2 months = 8.6 yrs8.6 months is close enough to 9
months for such length of cycleThen very short term cycles 10
& 20 weeks all arrivedon low due 9-21-01 & now
6-21-02,when 10 , 20 week & 9 month (40 weeks) cycles clustering
on same dates the more power to decline.in addition
20 yr cycle give warning sell short may 12th till June
21st 40 yr cycle (20 x 2)
sell short march 16th till June
25th SlawekPs. since attach are to large & my
email was returned I will split in few series with #
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